Heidenheim v Werder Bremen

• Heidenheim have managed just five wins across their last 19 matches

• Werder Bremen have kept five clean sheets in their last seven, remaining unbeaten across all of these matches

• BTTS No has won in each of Heidenheim’s last seven games, and 12 of their 16 games at home

As Heidenheim host Werder Bremen, we’re confronted with a match which technically could have implications on both ends of the league, although in all probability, it is unlikely to do so.

Werder Bremen have maintained a high level in their third year in the Bundesliga, following a short spell in Germany’s second division. Ahead of the league’s final matchday, they sit in 8th position with 48 points.

They remain three points behind Mainz and RB Leipzig, who are vying for 6th, which would offer Europa Conference League football for next season.

Despite that, Werder Bremen’s goal difference of -6 is significantly lower than Mainz’s (+12), and hence their European ambitions may have to wait for another year.

Heidenheim find themselves in a similar situation, but at the opposite end of the table. With 29 points, Heidenheim currently occupy 16th position, which would entail a relegation play-off match against whichever team finishes 3rd in the Bundesliga 2.

Four points separate them from 17th, meaning Heidenheim cannot drop any lower in the table. Hoffenheim, who sit three points above Heidenheim, would be their closest rivals, but given Hoffenheim’s goal difference is six greater, a reversal of positions would be unlikely.

It is, however, worth mentioning that Hoffenheim will clash with Bayern Munich to round the season off, so a big loss is far from out of the question.

⭐ Heidenheim v Werder Bremen Predictions and Best Bets

Backing Werder Bremen to win or draw at 1.57 looks a value bet given the sides’ respective forms. Heidenheim have managed just five wins across their last 19 matches, with three of these wins coming in matches where Heidenheim created fewer xG than their opponents. Werder Bremen, by contrast, have kept five clean sheets in their last seven, remaining unbeaten across all seven.

It also looks like the bookies have overestimated the probability of both teams scoring, leaving BTTS No a nice angle at 2.88. Either team has failed to score in 64% of Heidenheim’s games (2nd most in Bundesliga) and 48% of Werder Bremen’s (5th most in Bundesliga). The selection has come home in each of Heidenheim’s last seven games, and 12 of their 16 at home to date. It’s also been a winner in five of Werder Bremen’s most recent seven.

🔴 Late Heidenheim Form Offers Lifeline

Not too long ago, things weren’t looking good for Heidenheim, and although they’re not out of the woods yet, steering clear of the automatic relegation places is an achievement not to be sniffed at.

They managed this courtesy of an impressive late burst of two wins and a draw in the build-up to this game. As it turned out, this form was pretty significant in keeping them ahead of Holstein Kiel who have also won two of their last three.

Most recently, Heidenheim confidently beat Union Berlin 3-0 away from home. It was the first match in five that Heidenheim won the xG battle.

🟢 Werder Bremen Launch Late European Charge

Werder Bremen have also found a nice run of form towards the end of the season, although theirs has been somewhat more sustained than that of Heidenheim.

Werder Bremen come into this clash having remained undefeated across their last seven, recording four wins and three draws. They faced some pretty stern opposition over the period, including the likes of RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt, with their defence ultimately prevailing to maintain their run.

Five of the seven featured Werder Bremen clean sheets, although having now drawn three matches back-to-back, this could be a cause for concern.

📊 Heidenheim v Werder Bremen Head-to-Head Key Stats

Heidenheim and Werder Bremen have actually only met nine times in their history, but only the last three occurred in the Bundesliga. On those occasions, Heidenehim have generally gotten the better of their opposition, recording two wins and a draw.

It was the draw which took place most recently, finishing 3-3 in a game in which both teams were especially clinical, taking their chances nicely.

The xG was pretty evenly split, with Werder Bremen managing 1.54 to Heidenheim’s 1.38, and neither side creating any more than three big chances.

We can hope for a repeat of this, although recent form indicates an event as lively as the reverse fixture was might be unlikely.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.