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Burnley v Blackburn

After a short absence of a year the East Lancs derby, or the Cotton Mills derby if you prefer, returns to the Championship fixture programme, and there have been recent developments that could throw the derby into chaos.

Usually, it is Rovers fans who have cause to complain about their ownership. In fairness, they do still have genuine grounds for grievance given the continuing absence from the Premier League and the lack of funds being spent on the first team and the infrastructure, despite record sales including academy product Adam Wharton and last season’s Championship top scorer Sammie Szmodics.

However, these sales pale into insignificance next to the exodus at Turf Moor. It is a case of “last one out turn off the lights” at Burnley’s Gawthorpe training centre at the moment. Lyle Foster became the latest Burnley squad member linked with a sale in a deal with newly promoted Ipswich. Maxime Esteve and Mike Tresor are two more squad members expected to depart imminently, and, judging by the squad list last weekend, the Burnley squad has gone from the biggest in the league to looking quite threadbare.

The biggest issue is the attitude in the squad as a result of the mass exodus. There are rumours that Scott Parker is reportedly unhappy with the situation and senior players are having to try and quell the unrest in the squad.

None of this is great preparation for a fierce derby, especially against an in-form Rovers who John Eustace has managed to organise well on the pitch.

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Burnley v Blackburn Best Bets

➡️ Blackburn double chance @ 1.91 on Paddy Power
➡️ Joe Rankin-Costello to be shown a card @ 3.40 on Paddy Power
➡️ Lucas Pires to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.67 on Paddy Power

It is impossible to observe what is happening with Burnley and then feel confident in supporting them at odds on in the derby, even if they have won their last six.

We recommend Blackburn double chance at 1.91 with Paddy Power. There is no doubting the motivation that Rovers will have coming into the match and John Eustace has his squad organised and together. There is also the small matter of extra additions to the squad such as Todd Cantwell, who adds to the forward options and should be a real asset at this level.

The central midfield of Lewis Travis and Sondre Tronstad will not be overawed or outbattled either. Backing either Blackburn central midfielder for a card is a good option, but the best bet recommendation for the whole match is for Blackburn’s Joe Rankin-Costello to be carded at 3.40 with Paddy Power.

Paddy Power has the best price in the market, and Rankin-Costello is a Blackburn academy product who plays with an edge. He is highly competitive and works very hard for the team, but is also more than capable of getting cards for things like time wasting, which was the reason for his last caution. He was also booked in the last East Lancs derby, which bodes well for this selection.

Another standout option is to back Burnley left back Lucas Pires for a foul at 1.67 with Paddy Power. The Brazilian has committed six fouls already in his debut Championship season, including three in his last match against Sunderland, and with this being a derby and playing in a full back position where he is likely to be tested 1-v-1, this seems a very big price.

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📂 Burnley v Blackburn Cheat Sheet

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Andy’s Bet Club is your one-stop shop for football betting predictions. Throughout the 2024/25 season, we will be providing Championship acca tips, alongside a constant stream of EFL betting predictions, such as our Burnley v Blackburn bet builder tips.

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📊 Burnley Form and Stats

Despite the doom and gloom around the fanbase and, apparently, the squad, Burnley have won two of their three Championship fixtures.

Indeed, those wins were an impressive 4-1 win at Luton as an opening fixture, then a 5-0 win at home to Cardiff to follow. It is difficult to imagine that a team might be in crisis following those results.

However, even digging deeper into the Cardiff match does begin to tell a different story. Burnley’s five goals came from 0.81 xG, indeed the Clarets sit 21st out of 24 in terms of xG for (xGF) over the opening three matches, so there is some cause for concern in chance creation.

This was brought to the fore against Sunderland as the Black Cats dominated Burnley and prevented them from having any shots at all until just before half-time, managing only four in total across the whole match.

Issues were exacerbated in midweek with a tame 2-0 defeat to Wolves in the EFL Cup with only three shots taken and a 2.29 v 0.18 xG loss.

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📊 Blackburn Form and Stats

Blackburn fans may be concerned about off-pitch issues, but there are few complaints about their start on the field.

A narrow loss to Blackpool in the EFL Cup was mainly met with indifference by fans who recognise the importance of this league campaign. Rovers were in control of the game at 1-0 up until a lack of concentration and an inability to finish off their opponents came back to bite them.

For a season in which many were tipping Rovers for relegation troubles, there have been few signs of struggle as of yet. A thrilling 4-2 opening night win over Derby was followed by a 2-2 draw at Norwich and a well-earned 2-1 win at home to Oxford.

Goals and chances have been plentiful, with all matches going over 2.5 goals and seeing both teams scoring. However, everyone at the club is very much aware that two home wins over newly promoted teams does not paper over all of the cracks.

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⚔️ Burnley v Blackburn Head-to-Head

This is one of the oldest derbies in the world. Blackburn and Burnley were both founder members of the Football League in 1888, Rovers won the first-ever league derby 7-1 at Burnley, and, indeed, won the first six derbies. However, Burnley have the overall edge with 44 wins to Rovers’ 41, with only 19 draws in the history.

That edge has been given to the Clarets thanks to their recent dominance of the derby. Burnley have won the last six in a row, which gives a nice symmetry to the record, and Rovers haven’t been victorious against their bitter rivals since 2010. It is very much a derby that seems to go through periods of one-sided domination though, as Rovers had won seven of the eight derbies previous to that.

Burnley outclassed Rovers in their last meeting at Turf Moor. It was the last match for both sides before the 2022 World Cup break and, at the time, it was a top-of-the-table clash. Jon Dahl Tomasson’s team couldn’t break the Burnley press at all that day, were dominated in terms of territory and possession; and were soundly beaten 3-0 with goals from Ashley Barnes and Anass Zaroury.

Neither Zaroury or Barnes remain with the Clarets, and indeed, only Cullen and Brownhill from Burnley, and Brittain, Hyam, Hedges, and Travis of Blackburn are expected to play in this derby having featured in that game.

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Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club

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The experts behind our tips are also sharing their knowledge, with guides such as this one on xG in football, being useful starting points to level up your betting.

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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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