I am really concerned by Burnley's overall performance and trajectory. Whilst I don't doubt their spirit or attitude, the Premier League is a pretty unforgiving place, and Crystal Palace have tended to epitomize that, especially under Oliver Glasner.

Palace have had an up and down away record this season, but they have travelled to Wolves and won 2-0, beat West Ham 2-1, and beat Aston Villa 3-0 on their travels. They also boast a slight positive xG ratio away from home, creating 1.56xG to conceding 1.45xG over the course of the season so far.

Burnley's home record is where they have picked up seven points, but they have come from two wins against their fellow promoted clubs and a draw against an ailing Nottingham Forest. They have actually yet to win an xG battle at home this season, and have a big xG ratio deficit of 0.49xG to 1.9xG, in other words, they are conceding almost a goal and a half's worth of chances to their opponents per match at Turf Moor. This isn't going to lead to many successes, especially against a very competent Palace side.

This is a selection more based on Burnley at home than Palace away. Burnley have conceded an average of 6.83 corners per match at home, which is actually higher than their average away from home. Only Sunderland, on the second weekend of the season, didn't beat the chosen line here. Since then, Liverpool won 13, Forest 5, Leeds 5, Arsenal 6, and Chelsea won 9. 

Palace aren't massive corner winners, but they are consistently above this line regardless. Indeed, the last time they won fewer than four corners in a match was five matches ago when they played Arsenal away, and they won three, so not really a negative to this bet.

Palace have averaged 3.85 corners this season, but have upped their corner winning in recent weeks, going 4, 4, 4, 6 in their last four Premier League encounters.

I am surprised to see Mateta chalked up at a price over 1.5 here, because there is enough data and form out there to suggest that this should be more likely than the price suggests.

Starting with Mateta himself, we all know his game is a physical one, able to play with back to goal, but also able to run the channels for his team as well. He gets involved in a lot of physical duels, and fouls on both sides. For this particular market we can see that he is fouled 1.13 times per 90 over Palace's last 30 matches in all competitions. He has been fouled at least once in his last three starts, and in five of his last six.

Meanwhile, Axel Tuanzebe, playing at right centre-back for Burnley, is a regular fouler. He is fouling at a rate of 1.43 per 90 this season, committing at least one foul in his last five matches. Indeed, he committed three fouls last time out, then two and two in the matches before that.

The Burnley right back has been a first team regular, but he has definitely been more of a fouls magnet than his price here suggests.

Indeed, there has been only one match in Walker's last nine in which he hasn't conceded at least one foul. He is averaging 1.23 fouls per 90, and he is also playing every minute for Burnley, so that per 90 number is very relevant for him here.

With Palace tending to play two #10s rather than wide forwards, Walker may be more up directly against Tyrick Mitchell. Mitchell draws 1.18 fouls per 90 this season, and just inside him, Yeremi Pino is a fouls magnet as well, drawing 1.63 fouls per 90. This combination looks good for drawing fouls against Walker here.