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Burnley v Luton
After an extended break for the FA Cup, the Premier League is back on Friday night with a huge game at the foot of the table as Luton travel to Burnley. As ever we have a range of Premier League bet builders and Premier League accumulators. Not only that, but away from these shores we also have a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.
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In the Championship last year Burnley held the wood over Luton, finishing way above Luton in terms of points scored, and they even won in the earlier Premier League match between the sides in October.
The Clarets stormed to the title in the second tier last season with a swashbuckling style of football with more than a hint of Belgium about it with Vincent Kompany as head coach, using his knowledge of that league to bring in a sizeable contingent of players to help that transition move along smoothly.
The Belgian smoothness has hardened and produced cracks in the Premier League however. Burnley find themselves up against it in the relegation battle and though the recruitment over the summer has remained true to the values of Kompany and the owners, buying young foreign talent in the main, which may well work out for the Clarets over time, but is a steep learning curve at the moment.
Luton went a different way about their recruitment and, of the two clubs, it feels like Luton are the ones who are currently mounting the better defence of their Premier League status. The Premier League experience of Andros Townsend and Ross Barkley have certainly added to the ‘best in the Championship’ theme of Jacob Brown, Thomas Kaminski, Cheo Ogbene et.al.
It is interesting to note that despite both clubs being in the Premier League relegation zone at the time of this Friday night match, neither manager appears to be under great pressure. Rob Edwards is definitely perceived to be performing well, whilst it appears that Burnley are happy to view Kompany as a long-term project. It will be interesting to see if that opinion changes as reality bites towards the end of the season.
With this match being something of a relegation six-pointer, there is a lot of interest in the match. There are also some interesting data points which lead to potential angles for putting together a bet builder. We are able to guide you through those angles here.
Burnley v Luton Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Burnley v Luton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. You can also see our recommended bet builder sites with the best markets.
🏆 Match stats: Little between the sides in the underlying numbers as both struggle for a PL foothold
It is almost always difficult for newly-promoted sides in the Premier League to get the results required to steer clear of danger. Whilst it is not the certainty that many in pre-season would have people believe, the facts are that in 2023/24, at the time of writing, all three newly promoted sides are in the bottom three and favourites to return to the Championship after only one season.
This is also reflected in the data. Burnley and Luton are 19th and 18th respectively for xG created, and with a 5xG gap to the next worst in Nottingham Forest. Burnley edge above Luton when looking at shots on target per match, but again in 18th and 19th, but Burnley are bottom of the pile for big chances created, with Luton in touch with the rest of the league in 18th but only one big chance behind Crystal Palace.
In terms of how this may play out against each other in this match, Burnley will surely view this as a chance to reassert their dominance over a club that they beat twice last season and a team they will view as equals at best. So though Burnley average less than 50% possession so far this season, one would expect them to dominate the ball here and allow Luton to play on the counter attack.
Burnley’s defence has actually conceded a lower xG than West Ham or Tottenham this season, albeit they are still 15th in the league for xG conceded, Luton are 19th.
It is also interesting to observe that it is Luton that have pressed higher more successfully than Burnley this season, with the Hatters winning possession back in their opponents’ final third more often than nine other PL sides, including Burnley.
With all of this information it is difficult to justify Burnley at an odds on price for this match, despite their favourable history with Luton. In addition, the way that the game looks to be set-up could help both sides, so it is tempting to look at a positive style of match with both sides looking to score goals.
⚽ Luton Town double chance @ 1.80
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
🎯 Shooting stats: Barkley providing a threat from midfield
It has already been stated that neither side are troubling their opponents’ goal as often as most Premier League sides, but the opportunity to take on a team similar to their own level could provide the chance to cut loose in front of goal a little.
From a Luton perspective, Ross Barkley has been a great signing. He has offered some goal threat from midfield without shirking his defensive responsibilities and, indeed, tops Luton’s average number of shots per 90.
However, for shots on target it may be best to look elsewhere as Barkley is often more speculative with his efforts. Elijah Adebayo and Andros Townsend are actually better bets to get a shot on target at bigger prices.
From a Burnley perspective, the onus will be on them and they will probably have more shots than Luton as the match plays out. For the Clarets it is worth looking at the wide forwards.
They are often rotated, which makes it tricky to pick out the actual names of who may start, but because they play inverted they are a good avenue for shots. Jacob Bruun Larsen offers the best value, but wait for the teams to be announced before backing him as he may not start here.
⚽ Ross Barkley to have 2+ shots @ 1.36
⚽ Elijah Adebayo to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.40
⚽ Andros Townsend to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.50
⛳ Corners stats: Burnley dominance of corners expected
Burnley at home are actually quite strong on the corner front. The fact that they have lost all but one of their home games will play a role in this, i.e. game state will more often dictate which teams get more corners, but it cannot be ignored completely.
Moreover, Luton away from home average fewer corners than their opponents as well. This is by a margin over over 2 corners per match, so it is actually fairly surprising that Burnley aren’t a shorter price to win the match bet in the corner market.
With that in mind, and Burnley averaging 6.7 corners per home game, they look a little underpriced in their total corner market spread as well.
⚽ Burnley corner match bet @ 1.57
⚽ Over 5.5 Burnley corners @ 1.85
🟨 Cards stats: Both sides bottom half for yellow cards, but tension could spark a few more fouls
Whilst yellow cards haven’t really been prevalent in either side’s campaign so far, Burnley have still managed to collect four red cards, so they are no angels in that respect.
There is also the element of league position and match importance pressure to place on this game, both teams will be viewing this as a must-win encounter. Indeed, there were six yellow cards in the earlier Premier League encounter in October.
In terms of individual players, Carlton Morris is the Luton player who has committed the most fouls so far this season, yet he only has one card to show for it, Premier League referees will begin to notice this trend at some stage. However, Morris has not been starting games in recent weeks, so wait for team news before backing him.
Josh Brownhill is also probably due a couple more bookings. In what is sure to be a heated battleground in midfield, the Burnley captain will be a key contributor and has a strong history of fouls, 20 in the league so far this season. He only has two cautions to his name so far though, so his price remains good.
⚽ Josh Brownhill to be shown a card @ 4.00
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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