In this article…
O’Shea to face tough first outing for Clarets
The Premier League is back, and what better way to break in the new season than a game that has so many narratives surrounding it? Can City emulate the miraculous success of last season? How will Kompany fare in the Premier League? How will Kompany fare coaching opposite his old side? So many questions to be answered.
We’ve already been keeping our ears to the ground for potential Gem Bet angles ahead of Burnley v Man City on Friday night. One we have identified is a Dara O’Shea betting angle, more specifically looking at fouls committed by the Irishman. It shouldn’t come as a surprise the former West Brom man will be up against it with this City attacking line, and our experts have delved into why backing him for fouls committed is great value ahead of the first game of the Premier League season.
We’ll be backing this Gem Bet on Paddy Power, and you can get access to these generous odds by signing up using the link below. Not only will you get access to this Gem Bet, but you can stake £10 on Dara O’Shea to commit fouls v Man City, and get £50 in free football bet builders.
💎 Gem Bet: Dara O’Shea to commit fouls v Man City (Premier League)
Paddy Power has set the odds for Dara O’Shea committing fouls at 1.73 for 1+ fouls and 4.5 for 2+ fouls. These numbers appear to be somewhat elevated when compared to odds of 1.36 and 2.75, respectively, on Sky. There is no guarantee these prices will remain the same come kick off, so you may need to act fast.
Dara O’Shea’s foul statistics from his time at West Brom provide some valuable insight. Over the past three seasons, his average fouls per game have shown a consistent pattern:
2020/21: 1.09 fouls per game (3 yellow cards)
2021/22: 1.03 fouls per game (2 yellow cards)
2022/23: 0.73 fouls per game (7 yellow cards)
(Dara O’Shea’s foul statistics at WBA – Source: FBRef)
These figures indicate that O’Shea has maintained a relatively steady fouling rate over the years, suggesting a certain level of consistency in his playing style. This trend could play a crucial role in our assessment of the upcoming bet.
Looking ahead, the context of the match becomes significant. O’Shea is slated to face off against Erling Haaland, a prominent player known for his ability to draw fouls. A key observation here is Haaland’s heat map from the previous season, which reveals his tendency to drift toward the right center-back (RCB) position. Remarkably, O’Shea has consistently assumed the RCB role during friendly matches for Burnley in the pre-season.
(Erling Haaland heat map from 2022/23 season – Source: SofaScore)
Drawing from historical data, we can also gauge Haaland’s performance in terms of fouls won. Recent statistics show that Haaland has won at least one foul in four out of his last five matches, and he has secured two or more fouls in three of those five games. This suggests that Haaland’s physical playing style often prompts opposition players to commit fouls, providing O’Shea with ample opportunities to engage physically and potentially earn fouls in the upcoming match.
It’s worth noting that defenders have commonly attempted to agitate and frustrate Haaland on the field, and his well-known encounters with defenders like Ben Godfrey underscore this fact. O’Shea, however, appears to be no stranger to physical play, having previously participated in Gaelic football—a sport known for its robust nature. His familiarity with rough-and-tumble scenarios could potentially give him an edge in dealing with the challenges posed by Haaland.
this is why i watch football pic.twitter.com/boI0fQFOZa
— eimear (@8WDCS) December 31, 2022
It’s no doubt that Burnley will be well up for this game, and may even force a result. However, given City’s attacking prowess, and the sheer amount of defending he’ll have to do, backing him for fouls looks a smart selection.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
⬇️ Load Dara O’Shea to commit 1+ foul v Man City on Paddy Power
⬇️ Load Dara O’Shea to commit 2+ fouls v Man City on Paddy Power
Haven’t got a Paddy Power account? You’re in luck…
Sign up to Paddy Power and unlock £50 in free football bet builders. Grab an account through the offer below and place £10 on either of the Dara O’Shea Gem Bets. Here are the two possible outcomes:
18+ please gamble responsibly.