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Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
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Kick Off: Saturday 1st June at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund will meet in the 2023/24 Champions League final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday, with the winner succeeding Inter Milan as Europe’s greatest team.
Ahead of this key showdown, we have a breakdown of all the best Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid bet builder tips. A Cheat Sheet displaying the key player stats is also included, accompanied by free football betting tips & predictions, and team news, as well as bet builder stats. Visit our cheat sheet guide for more information. Check out the latest odds boosts for the game.
You can claim up to £240 in Champions League Final Free Bets to make the most of our expert football tips, like our both teams to score tips, showcasing value for money on the market.
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Los Blancos, of course, have been the dominant force in this competition in recent years. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have won the title on five occasions since overcoming Atletico Madrid in 2014. Curiously, though, they have never won the crown on English soil.
Dortmund, meanwhile, come into this game as significant underdogs. Edin Terzic’s club have lifted this trophy previously, but that was back in 1997 before the likes of Jadon Sancho and Ian Maatsen were even born.
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid Best Bets
Although Real Madrid are deservedly favourites, it feels rather disrespectful to Dortmund for the Spaniards to be as short as 1.60 to win the game in 90 minutes.
Nevertheless, look for Vinicius Junior to have a decisive impact on this game. Real Madrid’s ace is a decent price at 1.73 to score or assist.
Arguably the best value, though, comes in the fouls market. Carvajal at 3.2 to commit a couple of indiscretions or more against an adventurous Dortmund left side seems like a sizeable price, while Real Madrid to give up ten or more fouls at 1.67 is a bet that has persistently been a winner in this competition.
Maatsen to see yellow at 4.0 is also big given he has been booked in half the Champions League games in which he has played.
📂 Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid Cheat Sheet
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You can find Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚔️ Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Given that it has been nearly seven years since these sides last met, there is little to be read into from the head-to-head record. Incidentally, Real Madrid have won the last couple of matches between these teams, while each of the last four have produced at least four goals. None of this is likely to matter on Saturday.
What is of more interest is the fact that both clubs have already faced opponents from their rivals’ league to reach this stage.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side dispatched Union Berlin, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich from the Bundesliga. These were hard-fought victories. Union were twice beaten by a single goal, while Leipzig were only shaken off by a single goal after two difficult matches. It then took a staggering recovery in the latter stages of the semi-final second leg instigated by Joselu to see them past Bayern Munich 4-3 on aggregate.
BVB also had their work cut out to beat Atletico Madrid. After losing the first leg 2-1, they struck four times at home to progress by a single strike in what proved to be a thrilling tie.
Meanwhile, each of the last four Champions League finals have finished 1-0, indicating that this is not a stage upon which there are typically many goals.
📊 Borussia Dortmund Form and Stats
Borussia Dortmund, it is fair to say, have ridden their luck to reach the Champions League final. Across their six knockout games, they have failed to post an xG higher than their opponents in any individual game. This fortune was summed up in the semi final second leg as PSG hit the woodwork multiple times and created 3 xG in a 1-0 loss.
According to the Madrid press, the players who have been flagged by Los Blancos prior to this match are Karim Adeyemi because of his pace in transition as well as Niclas Fullkrug and Mats Hummels due to their set piece threat.
With five goal contributions (three goals and two assists), only Marcel Sabitzer has more for BVB in this competition this season than Fullkrug. Although ungainly, the striker has managed five shots in three of his last five Champions League games and is 6.5 to repeat that feat.
The shooting contributions of midfielders Julian Brandt and Marcel Sabitzer should not be overlooked. Brandt has had at least three shots in three of the last four, and Sabitzer has two in the previous three. They are priced at 3.3 and 3.6 to do this again.
Ian Maatsen has been booked in three of his six appearances for BVB in this competition, so his price of 4.0 looks appealing. Remarkably, he has committed only four fouls to hit this figure.
Adeyemi is Dortmund’s leader when it comes to giving up free kicks, posting 2.11 per 90. The speedy attacker, though, should be treated with some caution given he rarely plays the whole match.
Instead, look at Emre Can at 1.73 to commit at least two fouls. He has given up multiple free kicks in four of six knockout games and should play the majority of this fixture.
📊 Real Madrid Form and Stats
While it’s too much to say that form goes out the window for Real Madrid in the Champions League, this is certainly the competition that brings out the best in them.
They have played 12 Champions League matches and remain undefeated, finding a way to win and avoid defeat even when they have not played well. Four of their last five have been drawn, though.
Los Blancos have lost only once in normal time across all competitions this season, which is an incredible record and testament to their doggedness.
Overall, there has been a regression in Real Madrid’s form since eliminating Bayern. In their four La Liga games since they have only once created more than 2 xG in a single game, despite scoring 13 goals across those fixtures.
Aside from Joselu’s unlikely heroics, Vinicius Junior has been the star for Ancelotti’s side in the knockout stages. He has five goals and four assists in the Champions League this season, with five of these goal contributions coming in his last five games. He is also a past match-winner on this stage, having netted the decisive goal against Liverpool in 2022. The Brazilian is 2.38 to net here or 1.73 to score or assist.
Jude Bellingham (8) and Rodrygo (7) also have sizeable goal contributions in this competition. The England star might have come up big in El Clasico twice this season by scoring late goals, but he only has one assist in the knockout stages of the competition. Rodrygo has fared little better but did score twice against Manchester City.
In terms of discipline, Real Madrid have consistently conceded between ten and 12 fouls per match in the knockout rounds of this competition, while they have picked up two yellow cards in four of their six games.
Dani Carvajal is one to watch in terms of fouls. The right back has given away multiple fouls in three of the five Champions League knockout games he has been involved in this season and is 3.2 to do so again.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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