Real Madrid have big-game experience, having won the Champions League on five occasions since 2014.

Los Blancos have lost only one match through 90 minutes in all competitions this season and have shown a knack of coming good in high-pressure situations. Showed a capacity to open Bayern Munich up in the semi-finals, fashioning 4.7 xG across the two games. This proves they are capable of creating good quality chances against strong opponents.

Dortmund have rode their luck to reach this stage of the competition. In all six of their knockout games, their opponents have recorded a higher xG figure than them. They cannot afford to give a ruthless Real Madrid side that luxury.

Real Madrid’s big-game player in the Champions League, providing more goals or assists for Los Blancos in this competition than any other. He has five goals and four assists.

The Brazilian has been particularly strong in the knockout stages, with three strikes and two decisive passes. He is Real Madrid’s regular penalty taker, increasingly the likelihood of him getting a clear scoring opportunity. He is very likely to play the vast majority of the game and played every minute of the tie against Bayern Munich.

Proven in this type of environment before and scored the only goal of the game against Liverpool in the 2022 final.

Real Madrid are an extremely pragmatic side and are likely to give up free kicks if the situation is advantageous for them to do so. They have great experience in giving away cute free kicks in the ‘right’ areas of the field to alleviate pressure on their defence.

They have very consistently committed between ten and 12 fouls per match in the Champions League this season. Giving away 11 or more fouls in five of their previous knockout games this term.

Against a Dortmund side that can play in a variety of different manners, there is a danger that the Bundesliga side find a defensive weakness that can be exploited and the best way of stopping that is by committing fouls.

Dani Carvajal has committed at least two fouls in three of his last five Champions League matches.

He will come up against a couple of very tricky opponents on the right side of the defence. Jadon Sancho is a deft dribbler while Ian Maatsen is an aggressive player from left back, suggesting Carvajal could be called into significant action.

It tends to be feast or famine in terms of his foul count. Carvajal has committed at least two fouls on seven occasions across all competitions in 2024 but only one four times. Little value, then, in backing him to just give away just a single foul.

Emre Can has given away 15 fouls in the Champions League this season. No Dortmund player has been as prolific a criminal as their captain.

Four of BVB’s six knockout games in this season’s Champions League have ended with the 30-year-old having fouled multiple times. Although Karim Adeyemi has a higher rate of committing fouls per 90, Can is far likelier to play the duration of the game and has given away 1.63 fouls per complete match he has played in this competition this season.

He has been prolific in giving opponents free kicks in recent matches, committing at least two fouls in six of the last nine matches that he has featured in.

Valverde has only committed six fouls in the Champions League this season yet all of these have come in the knockout phase of the competition.

The Uruguay international star has distributed the free kicks he has given away across five of the six games he has played. Increased regularity of fouls has coincided with a move to a more attacking role, in which he can give away a free kick without the same repercussions as when he was playing deeper in midfield. He is likely to play in a more advanced position here. Valverde gave away two free kicks against Liverpool in the 2022 final.