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Championship Predictions 25/26 - Outright Picks & Tips

Championship Predictions 25/26 - Outright Picks & Tips

Thursday 5 February, 20261 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

Championship Outright Betting Tips

There are 16 games to go in the Championship season, the winter transfer window is over, so it is time to have a look, again, into the outrights and see if there are any prices out there to back for what might happen by the end of the season.

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Top Goalscorer
1 Selections @ 7.00

Championship

Championship

12:00

Jack Clarke E/W (3 Places)

Clarke is 2nd with 12 goals to Zan Vipotnik (13) at the time of writing.

The winger wouldn’t have been my first choice for this market prior to the season, but taking everything into consideration at this moment in time, I like his chances to finish the season on top of the scoring charts.

The main reason for this is his superb goals per minute ratio. He has scored 0.77 goals per 90, this is the highest ratio of the realistic contenders for the top goalscorer crown, only Ellis Simms has a better rate, and he hasn’t played enough minutes to be in consideration for the overall title this season.

Clarke’s share of minutes isn’t as high as many of the others in the race, which was my concern with him pre-season, but when you look at his season, he has finally been able to establish himself in the first choice XI, helped by an injury to Jaden Philogene. Indeed, he has played the full 90 minutes in Ipswich's last two matches, and 84 in the one before that.

Estimates for Philogene's return are March at the earliest, by which stage Clarke will have continued to establish a strong goals record and will be likely to remain in the team. 

Clarke is also on penalties for Ipswich, which is a big tick in the box for him, but even without that, he is clocking up some good chances with xG values of 0.86, 1.14, and 0.62 in his last three starts, with four goals coming in those matches too.

It should also be stated that due to the postponement at Portsmouth this week, Ipswich also have one more game to play than everyone else in the league bar Pompey.

Ipswich are the 2nd-highest scorers in the league and the 3rd-highest expected goals creators as well. With them chasing down the top two positions, one would expect them to be on the front foot and attempting to create as much as possible. Jack Clarke is going to be a key player in doing this in the final 17 Ipswich matches.

bet365
A £10 bet on this returns £47.50 if it wins.
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Top Goalscorer
1 Selections @ 34.00

Championship

Championship

12:00

Jovon Makama E/W (3 Places)

I would also like to add a small stake onto the young Norwich forward, Jovon Makama. He's joint 4th in the scoring charts, three off the lead with 10.

Brought in at much lower expense and to lower fanfare than their major foreign signings, Makama had already displaced Josh Sargent at the tip of the Canaries' attack before the American asked for a move.

Whilst Sargent currently remains at the club, I don't see any reason why Makama should be making way for him, which is quite remarkable to say, given Sargent's quality at this level.

I think Makama will go on to have a good career at Premier League and potentially international level. He is strong, aerially decent, but he can run channels, close down effectively, and he loves a shot.

His goals per minute record is really strong, 0.58 goals per 90, only just behind market leader Zan Vipotnik. Norwich have been better under Philippe Clement as well, so if the Canaries do go on to have a better close to the season, Makama could get enough goals to at least place at a price that I believe is far too big.

bet365
A £10 bet on this returns £216.25 if it wins.
Load bet @ 34.00
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To Finish in Top 6
1 Selections @ 3.50

Championship

Championship

12:00

Wrexham

I am as surprised as anyone to have studied the market for the top six intently, that I'm coming down on Wrexham being the best value bet in the group.

The play-off picture is, as usual, crowded. However, I believe that the likes of Millwall and Hull, in particular, are surprisingly short. There are still a lot of matches to go, and though both clubs have been in the play-off places for the last few weeks, there are still enough question marks for me to believe that there is more than one top six place to gun for. Even Ipswich, as unable as they have been to get consistent wins, aren't safe.

So then, why Wrexham?

I think that, as the season has progressed, it has become clear that the spending sprees that have come in each window have delivered Phil Parkinson a strong squad to work with.

Parkinson deserves credit for generally keeping the squad happy despite its bloated nature, and also for adapting his system to accommodate the players he has and how best to get key men into the team.

The pain point for Wrexham on the pitch has been at wing-back, but now Liberato Cacace and Issa Kabore are actually fit together at the same time, they should add a lot.

Yet more depth has been created with the late window signings of Zak Vyner, Davis Keillor-Dunn, and Bailey Cadamarteri, adding to an already solid line-up. This gives Parkinson greater security to rotate and keep things fresh in the run-in.

The reason that they are a bigger price than many despite their position being the best of the rest is chiefly down to their expected goals data. Though I am a faithful believer in data, I think that Wrexham are a team who do well in both boxes and contain players in their team who are able to convert chances at a higher rate than regular xG, as well as a goalkeeper and central defenders who do a good job at keeping things out at the other end.

Wrexham are by no means a certainty, but at a price longer than 2/1, I think that they represent the value in the field.

bet365
A £10 bet on this returns £35 if it wins.
Load bet @ 3.50
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Relegation
1 Selections @ 3.00

Championship

Championship

12:00

Leicester

Let's address the elephant in the room to begin with.

The main part of the value in this bet is not based on the pitch, but in the courtroom. It is widely believed that Leicester will get a six to 10 point penalty, and this is expected imminently, according to reports close to the case, this will impact the market.

It makes me uneasy to bet on football based on not totally footballing reasons, but if Leicester get what is expected to be the minimum tariff of six points, this places them alongside Blackburn and West Brom, and in that case, the price deserves backing. If the penalty is more like 10 points, then the price could even be odds-on.

In pure footballing matters, Leicester have been unbelievably poor. For a team fancied for a top six finish at minimum, the Foxes just haven't got going. Actually, their results were better in the first part of the season, but team performances have been poor almost all the way through, where quality individuals have bailed them out at times.

Their late (and post) window panic this week shows that alarm bells are ringing loudly at the King Power, and fan unrest at the ownership and decision-makers is growing weekly. This is before we touch on the fact that Leicester are currently without a manager as well, so there is that further unknown to throw into this price.

Blackburn are also in that position, but their underlying data, especially when their key players return from injury as they are doing now, is far superior to Leicester's.

West Brom are a team that I am definitely concerned about too, and may be worth a saver at a price similar to Leicester. However, similarly to Blackburn, if Eric Ramsay can have some fortune turn in his favour, the Baggies have shown a higher performance level than Leicester.

When the points penalty comes, much will then depend on the Foxes’ reaction. It could galvanise them, in which case they do have the quality of player to save themselves, or they could panic. Given the lack of success so far this season, the latter seems just as likely as the former here.

Paddy Power
A £10 bet on this returns £30 if it wins.
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Pre-Season Championship Outright Betting Tips


Top Half Finish
1 Selections @ 2.10

Championship

Championship

20:00

Millwall

This selection is now 1.01 with Sky Bet - I got on at 2.10 pre-season. Millwall are sitting pretty in 5th with an eight-point cushion on 13th.

Here is why I tipped it at the time.

"Having been through every single EFL Championship squad ahead of writing this piece, I was quite taken with the overall balance and depth of Millwall at this stage.

Solid would accurately describe the club as a whole. However, they also have enough options going forwards in Mihailo Ivanovic, Josh Coburn, Femi Azeez etc, all of whom have been at the club before the summer, which, again, is an advantage over some of their rivals.

Of course, there are many clubs who have the time to improve their own personnel, but having a good group of players already in the building at this stage, under a really solid manager for this level, points them to me as a team ready to hit the ground running.

Predicting spots 7th-21st in the Championship and the order in which they will come in is always a fool's errand given the lack of quality difference between the majority of the clubs in the league, but Millwall look underrated in most markets.

I give them a sneaky chance at the top six, so getting them at odds-against for the top half is a good bet in my opinion."

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Top Midlands Club
1 Selections @ 4.00

Championship

Championship

20:00

Coventry

This is market is no longer available, I'm in a strong position on Coventry as the Top Midlands Club. They're top of the league (Cov), 13 points clear of 7th-placed Derby, who're the closest Midlands Club to them in the table.

Here is why I tipped it at the time.

"Coventry look like they are in quite a solid place under Frank Lampard. They are continuing to add players to a squad which was good enough for a top six berth last season, and they have kept, and look like keeping, most of their important forward players, a continuation that many of their rivals are unable to boast.

Backing them in this market is also an admission that I want to take Birmingham on. Whilst Blues clearly have huge ambition, a budget that can compete with any in the league, and come into the season off the back of the best season in League One history, there is reason to think that they are being chalked up quite short in the market.

Blues’ recruitment, though impressive on the surface, can have holes poked in it. That, on top of a rookie manager at this level, playing a brand of football that other experienced coaches in the Championship might be able to take advantage of, means that I think they are vulnerable to another team likely to finish in the play-off shake-up.

Leicester could be a danger in this market as well, but they cannot be considered as a bet in any market until the officials have decided what is happening with the Foxes in terms of points deductions."

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How are the other pre-season outrights getting on?

The same in-depth research process that has produced strong outright positions this season went into all of our pre-season outright selections, it is fair to say that these ones haven't aged as well:

Southampton Promotion, Coventry Top 6 & Millwall Top Half @ 12.0

Southampton Promotion @ 2.62

Hull Relegation @ 4.50

Mathias Kvistgaarden Top Goalscorer E/W (4 Places) @ 41.0



* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *


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