Saturday’s Championship Final Day Best Bets & 111/1 Accumulator Tips

Saturday’s Championship Final Day Best Bets & 111/1 Accumulator Tips

Thursday 1 May, 20254 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

Championship Final Day Best Bets

Saturday is the final day of the Championship season, and with plenty still to play for, our expert has crunched the numbers and picked their best bet for each of the day's 12 fixtures.

All 12 games will kick-off simultaneously, getting underway at 12:30pm.

EFL Final Day free bets live now — see the best bookies you’ve not joined.

For a final day longshot you can back all 12 of our Championship Best Bets in a 111/1 accumulator.

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Bristol City v Preston

What is on the line?

A Bristol City win secures 5th place, but if they equal the results of any two of Coventry, Blackburn or Millwall, then they are in the top six. Preston secure Championship status with a win, but would be safe if either Derby, Luton, or Hull lose.

➡️ Kaine Kesler-Hayden - Over 0.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.44 ↔️

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The Aston Villa loanee has been widely praised for his loan performances and attitude whilst at Preston, and he has been able to provide a threat from his usual wing-back position. Indeed, Kesler-Hayden has been playing further forward in general than in his previous loans, and has been a man to follow for a bit of value on shots for some time.


He is a decent price to have another shot in a match in which Preston are likely to need something to remain in the Championship for another season.


Kesler-Hayden has hit at least one shot in seven of his last eight matches, and averages 1.03 shots per 90 in Preston’s last 30 matches in all.

Burnley v Millwall

What is on the line?

Burnley need to better Leeds’ result to finish as champions, promotion is already secured. A Millwall win would be enough to finish in the top six, as long as one of Bristol City or Coventry fail to win. A draw will leave Millwall outside the top six.

➡️ Josh Brownhill - Over 1.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.33 ↔️

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It is fairly difficult to predict how Millwall are going to get the chances that they need to get a win here. Burnley haven't conceded more than a single goal in any match in the Championship all season, and they have been in no mood to change that recently, despite securing promotion.


Indeed, that promotion seems to have inspired the Clarets onto further domination of their opponents, and Josh Brownhill has been making hay.


He is on penalties for the Clarets, but he has a knack of arriving in the box at the right time. He has taken two or more shots in each of their last three matches, and averages over 1.5 shots per 90 going back into Burnley’s last 30 matches.


If Millwall look to open up, which they have to because they have to win this match, then they could end up being picked off by a still-motivated Burnley team.

Coventry v Middlesbrough

What is on the line?

A Coventry win secures a top six position, a draw would be enough if Millwall and Blackburn both fail to win. Middlesbrough need to win and hope that more than one of Bristol City, Millwall and Blackburn fail to win.

➡️ Tommy Conway - Over 0.5 Shots on Target on bet365 @ 1.33 ↔️

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Middlesbrough need to win this match, and if they are going to do so, then Conway should be their main route to goal.


Conway’s conversion from shots to shots on target is excellent, for example, his last three matches have seen him hit 11 shots in total, but he managed to get seven of those on target, which is an exceptional ratio.


He averages 2.24 shots per 90 over Middlesbrough’s last 30, and 1.12 shots on target, so even over a large sample size, he is managing to get half of his shots on target, which is almost 20% higher than the average shot-to-shot-on-target ratio.

Derby v Stoke

What is on the line?

Derby stay up with a win, a draw would be enough as long as one of Preston, Luton or Hull fail to win. Stoke would stay up with a draw, and a loss would keep them up as long as one of Preston, Luton or Hull lose, or if Luton draw.

➡️ Nat Phillips - Over 0.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.73 ↔️

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It feels very unlikely that Derby will not look to find the head of the former Liverpool central defender in this match.


Chances are that Derby will need to score in this match, and their main route to goal under John Eustace has been through set pieces, where they employ the services of an excellent set-piece analyst to give them an advantage.


It was Phillips who gave them the all-important winner last time out at Hull, which put Derby’s fate into their own hands. He took three shots in Derby’s last home game and has taken at least one shot in each of Derby’s last three at Pride Park.


Phillips averages 1.34 shots per 90 when Derby play at home in the Championship, so this price in these circumstances looks generous.

Norwich v Cardiff

What is on the line?

Nothing!

➡️ Alex Robertson - Over 0.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.57 ↔️

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This price is very generous for a player who has started in the central attacking midfield position for Cardiff in the last two matches, and fired off two shots from that position in Cardiff’s last match.


There may be a chance that he doesn’t start this match, being a loan player, (and we'll get a void on bet365 if he doesn't), but if he does then it is likely to be a fairly open encounter with the result being inconsequential to either team, so should encourage a good number of shots, and, perhaps a little more space in central attacking areas.


Robertson has averaged 0.61 shots per 90 in Cardiff’s last 30 matches, but has seven shots in eight starts at the CAM position in that time period.

Plymouth v Leeds

What is on the line?

Plymouth need a 14-goal swing in goal difference to catch Luton. Leeds need to equal or better Burnley’s result to secure the title, having already secured promotion.

➡️ Over 2.5 Goals on bet365 @ 1.53

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It seems unlikely that Plymouth will try and do anything about the huge goal swing that would need to go in their favour here, but there will be a temptation to stick to their guns and give the Home Park crowd something to cheer on their way out of the league.


Any attacking intent shown by Plymouth will surely be pounced upon by Leeds, though, who would surely love to wrap up the league title here. Their display against Bristol City on Monday night was dominant and incredible. There are a lot of players who seem to want to score goals in this Leeds team, even at this stage, and they could cut loose again here after 6-0 and 4-0 victories in their last two.

Portsmouth v Hull

What is on the line?

Portsmouth are safe. Hull would stay up with a win, overtaking at least Derby or Stoke in that case, but a draw would be enough to survive if Luton or Preston lose, or if Derby lose by two or more. A Hull loss relegates them.

➡️ Portsmouth Double Chance on bet365 @ 1.36

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Hull will be looking to keep this tight, but that is easier said than done against a Portsmouth team who have been very successful at attacking at home.


Pompey have 32 goals in 22 home matches; they have scored in each of their last seven at home, and in 14 of their last 15 Championship matches in total. There will be a jubilant mood around Fratton Park, having secured their status in the Championship for next season, and Fratton Park is one of those atmospheric grounds where the fans can and do make a difference.


Hull haven’t conceded a huge amount under Ruben Selles, but they also haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five.

Sheffield United v Blackburn

What is on the line?

Sheffield United finish 3rd regardless of result here. Blackburn need to win and hope that two of Bristol City, Coventry and Millwall fail to win, a draw would get Blackburn into the top six if two of Bristol City, Coventry and Millwall lose.

➡️ Over 1.5 Goals on bet365 @ 1.33

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This is the scenario that throws up more goals on average than any other on final day, when a team is chasing a result.


While Sheffield United have had a really strong home record all season, they have not been as watertight defensively as Burnley or Leeds, allowing many more chances than either.


United have conceded at home to Bristol City, Coventry, and Millwall in recent home matches, all of Rovers’ play-off rivals, coincidentally, and Rovers will be pushing for the win here.


Blackburn have scored in their last five, including away at Sunderland and Luton, and are the form team coming into this with four wins in a row.

Sunderland v QPR

What is on the line?

Nothing!

➡️ Sunderland to Win on bet365 @ 1.62

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There are very few wins in either team’s recent history, but Sunderland really need to rediscover some form ahead of the play-offs.


It is highly likely that Regis Le Bris will put out a full strength Sunderland team in order to try and get a result in the final match of the season.


There is nothing to play for for QPR, and with rumours linking Marti Cifuentes with a summer departure, there could be a lack of motivation here, coupled with a lack of form.

Swansea v Oxford United

What is on the line?

Nothing!

➡️ Cameron Brannagan - Over 0.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.25 ↔️

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The Oxford United captain has more than played his part in dragging his team over the line in the relegation scrap this season with his high energy displays, but also his eye for goal.


Oxford’s last 30 matches have seen Brannagan average 1.56 shots per 90, that rises to 1.76 per 90 when changing the sample size to the last 10 matches.


With nothing on the line here, there is the chance to play with a little more freedom for both teams.

Watford v Sheff Wednesday

What is on the line?

Nothing!

➡️ Sheffield Wednesday Double Chance on bet365 @ 1.44

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There is a tendency to think that when nothing is on the line that the home side will have the advantage, as putting on a good performance in front of your home fans for the last game of the season is potentially the only motivation on the line.


However, there is no evidence of that in the Championship over the last decade, with only 39% of matches with nothing on the line resulting in a home win.


Sheffield Wednesday carry the better level of form and performance data into the encounter, with Watford having lost four in a row, and manager Tom Cleverley calling out the players in public and being linked to other jobs, it doesn’t appear to be a happy and settled camp.

West Brom v Luton

What is on the line?

Luton will secure their Championship status with a win, a draw is good enough as long as Hull fail to win, or Preston or Derby lose. Luton can stay up with a loss as long as Hull also lose.

➡️ Thelo Aasgaard - Over 2.5 Shots on bet365 @ 1.73 ↔️

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The Luton attacking midfielder is averaging 2.77 shots per 90 since his move from Wigan in January. More recently, he has taken matters into his own hands with seven shots taken against Coventry last time out, three against Bristol City and five against Blackburn Rovers.


If Luton need to secure something in the latter stages of the game, one can guarantee that Aasgaard will remain on the pitch and be a huge shot threat. He is taking Luton’s attacking free kicks as well, so he will likely get at least one shot off from that.

Andy’s Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips, with a wide variety of data-driven picks available daily to help you bet smarter. We also have Andy’s Football Tips, and Gem Bets, plus an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Our new Football Acca Betting tool is an excellent resource too.

Saturday’s slate will also be with our Early Kick-Off Predictions, Player Shots on Target Predictions, Card Betting Tips, and Fouls Predictions. Our full EFL Permutations Guide explains all you need to know ahead of final day.

We also have BTTS Tips, Over 2.5 Goals Tips, Mega Accumulator Tips, and Andy Robson's Football Accumulator in store for this weekend, as well as Aston Villa v Fulham Bet Builder Tips, Arsenal v Bournemouth Bet Builder Tips, and a variety of EFL Betting Previews.

When backing our tips, you’ll want to be doing so on the Top Bet Builder Sites and Best UK Sports Betting Sites. We also track the best Weekly Free Bet Clubs and Free Bet Offers, while you can check out the Best Bookie Offers Today here.

We’re keeping tabs on the best welcome offers at this time of year with this bet365 Sign-Up Offer, a strong one to add to your roster. To back this acca, you’ll need a Paddy Power account. Check out the latest Paddy Power New Customer Offer here.

Free-to-play gamers should bookmark our bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips and Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.


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