I am really surprised to be able to tip this line up for this match. There is a lot of data to support over 1.5 goals here, but there is also a good feel to this matchup in terms of how the teams will compete.

Blackburn are really bringing everything together at the moment. From a position of being in the relegation zone with a bunch of new recruits to the club and to the league, and fans on the verge of open revolt, to four wins in five league matches, and, moreover, looking really organised and effective in all areas of the pitch whilst doing so.

Looking into Blackburn’s matches, other than the fact that they are winning, they also do concede goals. Indeed, nine of their last 10 matches have beaten this line, so there is a lot of form there.

From a QPR perspective, there isn’t quite as much of a compelling data narrative, but their 3-2 win on Saturday demonstrated nicely that their young, dynamic set of forwards can play and score when their opponents allow them some space. Blackburn may not do that too much, but the onus will be on them as the home team in form to attack their opponents.

QPR average 1.2xG per match this season, conceding 1.36xG as well. Blackburn are running at 1.41xG per match, conceding 1.23xG, so there are lots of indicators for goals in any direction here.

As always this season, it is pretty tricky to get the right handle on Sheffield Wednesday, but the no-show in the Sheffield derby raised a lot of red flags for me. There is a set of evidence behind Wednesday which demonstrates that they are not a good Championship team.

They have not won in 10 Championship matches and have only won once all season in the league, they have not scored twice in a match for eight matches, scoring only four times in that period. Their xG ratio, the difference between expected goals for and against, is drifting deeper into the negative.

I felt that once the Chanisiri regime was brought to an end and there was a real groundswell of support for the club from the fans, that this might kickstart the team to pick up some more positive results. However, it is very difficult to get away from a lack of quality on the pitch, and in the squad. The lack of depth is becoming more of an issue, especially with injuries and suspensions kicking in, there are some players who have played too much and this will impact them physically.

Are Millwall capable of taking advantage? Obviously, I think they are. There have been surprisingly bad single results in this season, losing 0-4 against Birmingham and Coventry, and 0-3 against Middlesbrough, but despite this, their expected goals ratio for the season is pretty level, and they are four unbeaten at home, including three wins.

There is more than enough competence in the Millwall team and coaching staff to establish a game plan that will take advantage of the Sheffield Wednesday issues. I am confident that they will win the xG battle, and then it is a case of making that advantage work.