I feel like Hull are a bit too short in the match market here, and the easiest way to counter that is to back Wrexham in the double chance market.

I watched Hull at home to Middlesbrough last week, and they were ridiculously open from a defensive perspective. Middlesbrough played well, and tactically, Jakirovic had no answer to what Kim Hellberg provided for Boro. Time and again, Boro were able to get through the centre of the Hull team, and that must have been not very reassuring for all those of a Hull persuasion.

Hull, off the back of that match, continue to have the worst expected goals against record in the league, and, in that match, there was no sign of the other side, i.e., the team that is able to create chances in every match they play.

I am not basing this bet on potentially one bad performance, but Wrexham’s staff will have seen those deficiencies as much as I have and should surely be able to come up with a plan to take advantage of some of those issues, especially defensively.

Wrexham are moving into contention and look like a very competent Championship outfit now, having found their next system and starting XI. Gone are the team who were bottom of the league for expected goals against in the early weeks, their xG against over the last 10 matches is down to 1.25 per match, which is much more manageable.

They could stand to score a few more goals, especially away from home, but Phil Parkinson’s away strategy of containment and shape seems to be paying dividends. Wrexham have lost only twice in nine Championship away matches, drawing their last four in a row. Taking the draw as part of the double chance here means that a stalemate would pay us out.

Could the Tractor Boys be shifting gear to churn up the ground ahead of them to get back to the Premier League? Their 3-0 home win over Coventry at the weekend certainly made it seem possible, and cross-referencing that result with Stoke’s capitulation at Sheffield United certainly makes favouring Ipswich here quite a palatable bet.

This column has been very supportive of Ipswich over this season, unfortunately, sometimes to our detriment, but it has paid off more recently, and I am confident that they will, at least, continue their trend of at least creating bigger and better chances than their opposition at Portman Road, which they have done in every home game so far this season.

They have gone on to win five of their last eight at home as well, so it has been a trend that is starting to work in Kieran McKenna’s side’s favour.

My fear for Stoke is that they currently sit very much in the firing line of a heck of a lot of Championship clubs in that much sought-after sixth place. The points gap between Stoke and the chasing pack couldn’t be more slender, with literally three points between them and the bottom half of the table. Leicester, down in 14th, are only one win away from Stoke. If the team do lose this one, then there could be some fans who begin to have that sinking feeling from yet another Stoke season.

Back-to-back away losses at Leicester and Sheffield United are not the best preparation for this match, but there is a worrying xG differential of around -0.5 xG per away match, based on all away matches this season, that is even more of a concern going into this one.

The Millers have been a little underappreciated in the market here, giving us the opportunity to get on board in the double chance market, getting the draw onside as well.

Blackpool are having a disappointing season, though their FA Cup progression on Sunday will have pleased Ian Evatt. They have a lot of work to do in the league, and this is a tough assignment for them to do.

I can understand where the bookmakers’ models are coming from with this price. Rotherham haven’t actually lost a league game in nine, not since 22nd September, but their expected goals data continues to drag behind. Their home record has only one loss in it all season long, meaning that this bet would’ve won in eight of nine Rotherham home matches this season. So, regardless of xG data, this Rotherham team has been effective in both boxes, getting results sometimes even when performances haven’t quite been of standard, and that isn't easy to quantify.

Blackpool are not a team that is easy to get behind from a punting perspective, especially away from home. They have lost seven of their nine away games, and carry an expected goals deficit of -0.43 xG on the road as well. They got a 1-1 draw at Leyton Orient last time, but even a similar result here would see this bet cash in.

Newport’s difficult season continued at the weekend with a fairly humiliating FA Cup exit at the hands of National League Boreham Wood, and that is not the best preparation for a trip to Crewe for the team at the bottom of the league.

County are now on a run of no wins in seven in all competitions, with five defeats in that seven as well. They have lost their last three away matches without scoring, which isn’t the impact that new boss Christian Fuchs will have been looking for.

Unfortunately for Fuchs as well, Crewe seem to have found a bit of mojo at home of late. Their overall home record this season has been very up and down, with five wins and six losses in the league, but they have scored three goals in each of their last three at home, and generated over 2 xG in their last two against Chesterfield and Shrewsbury.

The last time that Newport conceded less than 1 xG was nine matches ago, and they conceded over 3.5 xG to Boreham Wood on Sunday as well. So, one would imagine that Crewe will get their chances here.