Middlesbrough are on a 4-match losing streak heading into this match. This has the locals’ heads in a spin, with audible boos during the match against Watford last time out, and vocal calls for Michael Carrick to be dismissed.

However, now that the manager has been given public backing from the chairman and the club, it feels as though Carrick will remain and the team needs to do something to reward that faith.

The odds have swung too far towards Bristol City in this match, Middlesbrough were a similar price when travelling to Sheffield United recently, and there is not much in Bristol City’s form to suggest they are at that level themselves.

However, it still feels too risky to side with Boro on the win markets. Instead, the preference would be to back Boro to score at Ashton Gate. Part of Carrick’s problem all throughout his Boro reign though is that when they go out to score away from home they also concede.

There have been 50 goals in 15 Middlesbrough away matches in the Championship, 26 for and 24 against. This seems to be a problem that has worsened as well, 10 of their last 11 away games have seen BTTS.

Bristol City are generally tighter at home, only conceding 12 goals in 16 home matches, but it was only 2 home games ago that the Robins conceded at home to Blackburn, who also created 1.89 xG in the match. This is something that Boro could easily replicate, even with their current form.

Burnley are setting records all over the place, and there is no reason to believe that their gameplan will change much here at home to a dangerous Sheffield Wednesday side.

Wednesday are also chasing a play-off position, but Danny Röhl is proving to be quite a pragmatic manager when the time calls for it. Despite knowing that Burnley are exceptional defensively, Röhl will be patient with his team, also knowing that a draw wouldn’t be a terrible result for the Owls.

It is now 11 matches since Burnley conceded a goal in the Championship, so it goes without saying that those matches have been BTTS-No.

Sheffield Wednesday haven’t exactly been full of goals themselves of late either, scoring 4 in 4, though only Leeds have stopped the Owls from netting in 2025.

There is evidence to suggest that Burnley are actually improving defensively, as the xG that they are conceding to opponents is actually reducing as the season progresses.

Sheffield Wednesday still haven’t solved the problem of a goalscoring #9 in their squad. It isn’t for the want of trying, their football is progressive, but it must be triggering for the fans to know that they are lacking that piece of the jigsaw.

Burnley don’t generally thrash teams, they get ahead and work off that lead.