Strangely, Norwich have been better in front of goal in their away matches than their home matches under Philippe Clement. They average 1.9 goals per game on their travels, which is a real overperformance on their 1.21 xG per match over the same sample. They also concede 1.5 xG per match in this sample, but have only actually conceded 1.2 goals per game.

Southampton kept their play-off chances very much alive with a great win at Coventry at the weekend. This has now made it 14 consecutive matches in which they have scored.

Under Tonda Eckert, the Saints have been a good BTTS-Yes team. They average 1.7 goals and concede 1.3 goals per game; their xG data is 1.55 v 1.47 over Eckert’s reign, and BTTS-Yes has landed in 14/20 (70%) Championship matches under Eckert, including their last three.

MK Dons are looking more and more like a League One team as their January investments begin to gel with their summer 2025 recruitment. The proof of this is in their results, but it is now showing in their performance data as well.

They have managed to make their ill-fitting home stadium into a bit of a fortress as well. 13 matches unbeaten in the league, and only four draws in that spell, too.

The Us have somewhat flattered to deceive this season. They have the potential to be one of League Two’s top teams, but they have dropped too many points. Their last six matches reads two wins, two draws, and two defeats.

They did win their last away match at Newport, but they had lost three in four before that. That 2-1 win was also the first time that Colchester had scored more than once on the road since a 4-3 loss to Salford on 13th December. 

Whilst they do actually have a narrowly positive xG differential away from home over their last 30 matches, it is nowhere near MK Dons’ dominance, so I am expecting the home side to win that xG battle and then use their extra attacking quality to take advantage of that.