We can almost completely disregard Sheffield United’s last match from the form guide here, as they were down to nine men before half-time against Charlton; however, before the first sending off, and actually until the second, they were much the better team.

Prior to the Charlton match, United have been on something of a chance creation rampage. They had created over 2 xG in five consecutive matches, which has lifted their seasonal average up to 1.7 xG per match, meaning that they are far more likely to score than not with the chances that they are creating. Indeed, those same five matches saw them net at least twice on every occasion, bagging 14 in total across those matches.

Unfortunately, they have also conceded 12 in their last five matches, so there are definitely goals at both ends with the Blades at the moment. Across Sheffield United’s last 10 away games in the league, the numbers are huge: 1.74 xG created and 1.4 xG conceded, and with Southampton still possessing those quality attacking players, there is every chance of United conceding again here.

Saints are averaging 1.66 xG at home, so they are not short of chance creation at St. Mary’s. They are conceding 1.1 xG across that time too, and they have conceded in four of their last five matches at home. Given their poor form and Sheffield United’s propensity to score, I like the idea of BTTS coming in here.

I am very aware of Watford’s poor results in the last two matches, but, overall, I have a degree of faith in their quality, and I rate them as a much better team than Pompey right now.

Pompey are away here as well, and though they won their last away game, that was against Sheffield Wednesday, and, at the moment, they rate as a mid-table League One team at best. Outside of that match, Portsmouth have only won one away game in 11, scoring only seven times in those matches too.

Whilst Watford were really disappointing at home to Millwall last time out, I am very much aware that Alex Neil's Millwall can do that to teams at times. There should be a reaction to that here, and also John Mousinho's Portsmouth haven't been quite as resilient and capable on their travels, as mentioned above.

Watford still have a +0.59 xG differential per match when they play at home; in other words, they have created over half a goal's worth more than their opponents at Vicarage Road. On the other hand, Pompey come into this with a -0.78 xG differential across the season, so there is a substantial gap in performance to overcome here for the South Coast club.