Could the Championship underdogs do it again? Luton Town’s run to the second tier play-offs was one of the stories of the season in 2021-22. Now this season, even despite having to be through a forced change of head coach, the Hatters find themselves once again in the Championship top six following Tuesday’s 1-0 home victory over Cardiff City. Luton are known for their exceptional recruitment and have added further to an already strong group under Rob Edwards. Club hero Harry Cornick has moved onto Bristol City after nearly six full seasons at Kenilworth Road, but his move hasn’t decimated a frontline that can include Elijah Adebayo, Cauley Woodrow and Carlton Morris. Wing-back Cody Drameh has been added on a loan deal from Leeds United, and had an encouraging debut at Cardiff City. Luton have further added midfielder Marvelous Nakamba on loan from Aston Villa. Barnsley goalkeeper Jack Walton should come in as a new backup. Peterborough striker Joe Taylor should be one with the future in mind.

Stoke City’s relatively comfortable run into the fifth round of the FA Cup has probably been the highlight of their season so far. The Potters sit in a lowly 18th position in the Championship table, with half a division’s worth of play-off chasers all a good distance ahead of them. Their 4-0 home win over Reading two weeks ago was an excellent result, but did feel out of place with how Alex Neil’s side have generally fared. Late January additions for Stoke have been loan deals: goalkeeper Matija Sarkic and defender Ki-Jana Hoever from Wolverhampton Wanderers, attacking midfielder Bersant Celina from Dijon and midfielder Ben Pearson from AFC Bournemouth have all arrived. The signing of Manchester United loan defender Axel Tuanzebe is a high-calibre one though, and should add to a backline that has on average been conceding 1.3 goals a game. Outside of Celina though, Stoke City’s frontline has not been strengthened, maintaining that reliance on players like Jacob Brown, Dwight Gayle and Tyrese Campbell to be the main source of goals.

If play-off chasing Luton Town can improve their home record, the chances of a top six finish greatly increase. The Hatters tally of 19 from 14 home matches is the 14th best record in the Championship, albeit five other sides are also on 19 home points this season. Rob Edwards’ side are certainly reaping the benefits of a run of just one defeat in 12 matches at Kenilworth Road. Up against bottom third opposition in Stoke City, the home crowd will be hopeful of another victory.

Middlesbrough now top the whole season xG table. Their performances started off well under Chris Wilder but the results weren’t good, performances only began to suffer in the last couple of weeks of Wilder’s tenure. However, Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough have been outstanding in both aspects, performances have been excellent and results have followed.

Mick McCarthy will be looking to have a similar impact on this Blackpool team. In his previous role at Cardiff, the Yorkshireman went on a long unbeaten run straight away and that instilled confidence in the group which comfortably steered the Bluebirds away from trouble. This is going to be a difficult trick to repeat, especially having been given this match as a starting point.

Blackpool have been the second-worst side in the division based on expected points, and are currently ranked the worst since the World Cup break. The key issue for McCarthy to solve is the chronic lack of chances created by the Seasiders. He is likely to try and play a more direct game than Michael Appleton and potentially use the physical presence of Gary Madine to base attacks from. The problem in this match is that Dael Fry and Darragh Lenihan are unlikely to give up much change from this approach.

This is a pretty settled Middlesbrough side now with attacking verve coming from all over the pitch. The arrival of Cameron Archer has added something more and the Aston Villa loanee looked very bright attacking from the left in the recent win over Watford at the Riverside. This also allows Ryan Giles to continue his natural marauding style around the outside of Archer to supply the likes of Chuba Akpom, Matt Crooks, and Marcus Forss. There is a lot for Blackpool to contend with defensively, something which they possibly lack the quality of personnel for at this time.

Hull will have to defend against the ‘new manager bounce’ in this fixture but they should have the ability and mentality to be able to do that.

The Tigers’ 3-0 mauling of QPR last week just proved what had been seen in the data but not on the scoreline until that point i.e. yes you can dominate games with chances but can you score enough goals to be successful? The signing of Aaron Connolly could be the key to solving that equation on a regular basis. The Irishman hit the target twice last week and takes the pressure off Oscar Estupinan as a source of goals.

Sabri Lamouchi has a job on his hands to create a system in which Cardiff can emulate that scoring touch. Callum Robinson is by far the Bluebirds’ biggest goal threat and also the most creative player as well. What Lamouchi will need to find is a way of getting the ball to Robinson on a regular basis whilst he’s in a good position between the posts.

Whilst I do believe that Cardiff are underperforming in terms of points and league position, Hull are a much better team under Liam Rosenior than they were under Shota Arveladze. The Tigers are in the play-off places in terms of recent performance with high chance creation numbers especially. Given a relatively average performance from these two teams, it is reasonable to expect Hull to be the ones generating more and better chances than Cardiff and then it is a case of whether Hull actually take them or not. To get an odds-against price about them doing so, when it looks as though Cardiff could struggle for goals, looks a good bet to me.

The way that the bookmakers have priced up this match means that they would view QPR as a much better team than Huddersfield. Whilst I can agree that at a neutral venue, with the players in each squad, I would give the edge to QPR, there is too much weight given to Rangers at these prices on the Terriers’ home turf.

Indeed, taking the period since the World Cup as a basis QPR and Huddersfield sit right next to each other in 15th & 16th in the xG form table, which means that cumulatively over this time there is very little between them in terms of performance levels. Both sides have also won only seven points in that time, albeit Huddersfield have played a match less than QPR.

Another bonus that Mark Fotheringham can point to in Huddersfield’s favour over this time has been the improvement in defence. The Terriers are conceding just less than 1xGA per match over this period, which means that QPR could struggle to create good chances. This is currently one of Rangers’ key issues anyway as Critchley has not yet been able to find the right balance in his new side to use the undoubted creative talents of Ilias Chair, Chris Willock, Tyler Roberts, and Tim Iroegbunam to provide the chances. They are generating less than 1xG per match at the moment, and this wasn’t helped by a tepid display last time out on the road at Hull with only 0.2xG created.

Six of QPR’s last seven away games would’ve seen the recommended bet collect, the exception being a trip to Preston in December. Observing Huddersfield’s home matches has been something of a soporific experience by all witnesses for most of the season. They tend to keep the margins pretty tight, the xG difference hasn’t yet been greater than 1 all season. So wins and defeats tend to be very narrow, with all three results in play in the majority of matches.

In this case, to be able to get two of the results running for us at a price better than 1.5 feels like a value proposition. Town added a lot of numbers to their attacking lineup in the window and they will be hoping that a slight improvement in individual quality will be all it takes to improve their fortunes.

There is quite the yawning chasm between these two sides in the recent xG form since the return of the Championship following the World Cup break.

Swansea sit comfortably in the play-off positions in xG numbers and their home form since the break makes positive reading too. You have to go back to mid-September and the visit of Sheffield United to find the last time that the Swans were beaten on xG on their home turf. A slight issue is that despite that fact they have only won once in their last four, but the teams to defeat them were Norwich and Burnley, teams that, with respect to Birmingham, are a cut above these opponents.

Birmingham have hit a really sticky spot in their season. I had them rated as a comfortably midtable side as recently as October but that can no longer hold. Results have massively dropped off, but more concerningly, performances can no longer be relied upon. In three out of their last four away games Blues have been heavily dominated in the xG count, and they have lost those last two 0-3 and 2-4.

Swansea brought in no new players in January. This has angered much of the fanbase who believe that the ownership group in charge simply does not have the right plan in place to improve the fortunes of the club. Whilst this is obviously a less-than-ideal situation, it could actually serve to galvanise the support around the players, and, especially, the manager. Russell Martin is very popular within the game and still with the supporters too. They will likely get behind the team during the game and leave the ire of the owners outside of the confines of the 90 minutes themselves.

Martin already is used to dealing with a small squad and using the players at his disposal in the most effective way he can, so I predict very little change in the way that they will go about things, which should be enough to come out on top in this match.