QPR v West Brom

The Championship is clearly quite a level playing field this season. The bookmakers are finding it difficult to separate these two in this match though, despite the fact QPR are in the promotion hunt and West Brom are currently in the relegation zone. 

West Brom’s performances have been better than their position suggests but sacking Steve Bruce has yet to pay dividends in terms of changing the outcomes. There is something of a malaise at the club where all sorts of different things are being blamed for the predicament that The Baggies find themselves in. 

However, Carlos Corberan has proven himself to be a good tactician at Huddersfield last season and that could be something that helps him to arrest the slide. Picking up a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool in midweek also helps. 

QPR though arguably had a more impressive result away at Norwich and we know how Mick Beale committed himself to the QPR job in the face of Premier League interest. There was no shortage of application and organisation at Carrow Road and another substitute appearance from Chris Willock suggests that he may well be available from the start for this match. 

The impressive thing about QPR from my perspective is the suitability of the players to their roles. Kenneth Paal and Ethan Laird contribute in attack and defence from full back, Leon Balogun has added experience, physical power and composure in central defence and Sam Field runs his socks off in midfield. The loan signing of Tim Iroegbunam has added something extra to the midfield as well, he will be a Premier League star and England International. 

This will be a highly competitive affair and taking the draw out of it I am happy to lean towards the home side here for form and home advantage reasons. 

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Blackburn v Huddersfield

Blackburn continue to confound the Championship observers. Rovers still sit happily in the promotion race and entertain the league’ bottom side and for many this may classify as a home banker, especially as Rovers have a particularly good record. However, that is not the bet I like for this match.

Rovers put in another tepid display in midweek where they lacked any real physical presence in midfield and attack and compounded that with a series of misplaced passes that allowed Coventry to continually run in on their goal. The big concern with Blackburn is always goalscoring and they have been running hot for quite some time in that area. Usually that means that a regression to the mean is just around the corner, and that time could be now.

Most teams in The Championship, and indeed the EFL as a whole, look to be running out of gas somewhat as the punishing schedule pre-World Cup break seems to be taking its toll. I suspect that Blackburn are falling into this trap, despite Jon Dahl Tomasson trying to rotate his squad when possible. I also think that many teams will be looking to be extra organised and compact in their defensive shape, especially going away to a better performing team.

Mark Fotheringham is starting to get his side playing more the way he wants to. Their preferred 4-2-3-1 system could work well in this fixture with the two defensive midfielders effectively creating a six-man defence that Rovers will have to try hard to penetrate. If Huddersfield do their homework, and they surely will, they will have noticed that when Rovers are forced to have the ball, their results are poor. Indeed, the three matches that they have had the most possession in they have lost.

I suspect that we will be in for a match of attrition at Ewood Park and goals could be tough to come by. The home banker may well come in, but even if it does then a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline will still see the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet come in.

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Rotherham v Norwich

The justification for liking goals in this match is a very straightforward one. Despite the fact that Norwich come into this match on the back of a 0-0 draw, their chance creation of late has actually been above average. Combine this with Rotherham’s tendency to concede chances and there is a good recipe to exploit an even money quote.

As we delve deeper into Norwich and observe their performances we can see that they hit the woodwork twice on Wednesday night against QPR, Teemu Pukki is still looking very sharp and his movement remains a real problem for Championship defences. Indeed, Norwich have generated 1.4xG or more in four of their last six matches, the exceptions being away at Burnley and against Luton.

Whereas Rotherham have been under the gun a whole lot recently. Their captiulation at Burnley in midweek came from a sustained barrage, conceding an xG of almost 3 in that match. That made it five matches in a row that they have conceded over 1xG in the match and a couple of those were way over 2xG. Matt Taylor is still grappling to get the balance of the team right and there isn’t a great depth of squad to change things massively. I am concerned about the mental aspect of losing a match that The Millers were winning going into stoppage time as well.

We should also note as well that Norwich have actually conceded a higher average xG over the last 4 matches (1.51xG) than they have created. So Rotherham will probably get their chances in the game as well, most likely on the break or from set pieces. This aspect of the match is what sways me to back an over goals bet rather than getting with Norwich for the win at a worse price.

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Swansea v Wigan

The Welsh side have had some issues on the road over the last week. However, back in the comfortable surroundings of the Swansea.com Stadium I really like their chances of taking Wigan down here.

Part of this bet is simply wanting to get against Wigan at the moment. The Latics’ performance data is gradually getting poorer, they now sit 22nd in the form table for expected points, comparing this to their whole season position of 16th in the same table shows that they are dropping off in terms of chance creation and concession. This coincides with injuries to players such as Callum Lang, who was beginning to find some form going forwards, and Ryan Nyambe, one of the very few summer signings for Wigan, who was contributing some defensive solidity at right-back.

Swansea’s home form is generally better than away. They have won 6 out of 9 xG battles at home and with Wigan’s recent record we can feel confident that The Swans will be the team in this match who will have the better/more frequent chances, it is just a question of whether they can take them. 

Jamie Paterson, Ryan Manning, and Joel Piroe are all back in the Swansea squad now so there are plenty of options available to Russell Martin to be a constant threat throughout the match. I like their chances to get on the scoresheet and one may well be enough to take the victory here. 

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