2019 Tottenham 1-0 Chelsea – Chelsea progress on penalties

2018 Man City 2-1 Bristol City – Man City progress by 2 goals

2017 Southampton 1-0 Liverpool – Southampton progress by 2 goals

2016 Everton 2-1 Man City – Man City progress by 1 goal

2015 Tottenham 1-0 Sheff Utd – Tottenham progress by 1 goal

2014 Sunderland 2-1 Man Utd – Sunderland progress on penalties

2012 Crystal Palace 1-0 Cardiff – Cardiff progress on penalties

2011 West Ham 2-1 Birmingham – Birmingham progress after extra time

2011 Ipswich 1-0 Arsenal – Arsenal progress by 2 goals

2010 Man City 2-1 Man Utd – Man Utd progress by 1 goal

Chelsea’s goal underperformance has been much covered but it is worth highlighting that in the league they have scored 35 goals, worthy of 9th in the Premier League, but that comes from an xG of 42.1, which is second only to league leaders Liverpool.

However, they do only sit 8th for shots on target per match, a total that is slightly below 5 per match, and something that Mauricio Pochettino will probably be aiming to improve upon. They have missed the joint most big chances as well, alongside Liverpool again.

Whilst Chelsea’s defence isn’t quite as impressive, it is by no means a disaster, their xG concession of 30.2 tallies up fairly accurately with the 31 goals that they have conceded but this puts them 7th in the Premier League for this metric.

Middlesbrough obviously sit mid-table in the Championship, though still well in touch with the play-off race, however, it is a big ask for them to raise their game to a Premier League level to test the Chelsea defence.

The way that they did this in the first leg was to be very direct and use the pace of their young forwards to carry them up the field and get their chances that way.

Boro have shown themselves capable of creating chances, they sit 4th in the Championship for xG created and 3rd for shots on target per match, and their position at the top of the list for big chances missed shows simultaneously that they are creating chances but also have been fairly profligate in their finishing too.

In all likelihood, Boro will have to be very clinical to get a result in this leg and their forward options do not scream clinicality.

The way that Chelsea’s shot threats line up depends very much on how Pochettino sets his team up for the match. Christopher Nkunku is hoping to be fit for the match, but he is not currently priced for shots, he would be of great interest if this changes if it becomes apparent that he is playing.

Noni Madueke is another high-shot volume player for Chelsea, but his starting berth isn’t guaranteed either, Cole Palmer will play but the odds for his shots are short, even though he peppered the Boro goal in the first leg.

With Middlesbrough likely to sit in with a compact formation, it could be worth looking at players who may shoot from the edge of the box. Enzo Fernandez plays that little bit deeper but he has averaged 2 shots per match this season, this game seems particularly well set up for the World Cup winner to indulge those attacking tendencies.

Hayden Hackney looks to be overpriced for Middlesbrough. He played a little higher than usual in the first leg, and with that working out well for Michael Carrick, the suspicions are that he may play more advanced again at Stamford Bridge. If that is the case then he could be worth backing in the shots market.

Middlesbrough are likely to play a 5-man defence, but Carrick will be sweating on the fitness of Isaiah Jones who tweaked his hamstring against Rotherham and he is by far and away the best candidate for the RWB role in that formation. If Jones does start then he should be on the list for potential foulers.

Ben Chilwell came on against Fulham in Chelsea’s last match before the break so logic would dictate that ten days on Chilwell should be ready for a start here. If so, he will be directly up against Jones or perhaps a different running threat on the Middlesbrough right.

The final player to deserve a mention here is Hackney. He is a local lad with great passion, it will mean everything for him to get the club that he has been at for over half of his life to a major domestic cup final.

Finally, Raheem Sterling to be fouled looks a tempting price. The England man is a very clever dribbler who always seems to tempt those fouls in and around the box.