The festive football fixtures continue as Stamford Bridge is host to a Premier League matchup this evening between Chelsea and Brighton. The Blues sit 3rd in the table, on the same points as 2nd placed Liverpool who have a game in hand. Brighton are impressively in 9th place, only two points behind Wolves in 8th place. A win for Chelsea will seem crucial in terms of staying with Man City and Liverpool and mounting their title challenge.
With the festive fixture pile-up angering most managers, Brighton have seen two of their recent games postponed due to Covid-19, whilst Chelsea have been told to continue as planned and play all their games, despite being stricken with injuries and Covid cases. This gives the visitors a marginal advantage with some fresher legs on the field this evening.
In terms of form, Brighton have drawn five of their last eight games, only managing to win one game in their last twelve, which happened in their most recent match against Brentford. Despite Chelsea being unbeaten in their last four games in the league, the Blues have only managed to win four of their last eight games, which needs to be improved to solidify their title charge.
Chelsea vs Brighton Bet Builder Tips
Enock Mwepu to be Booked
With Chelsea seeing these three possible points as the only option if they wish to continue challenging for top spot, they will be pushing hard to snatch the win this evening. With Chelsea applying pressure on the Brighton defence as they voyage to score some goals, this will require The Seagulls to maintain a solid back line and absorb the pressure from the home side. Because of this, I’m expecting Enock Mwepu to get himself booked, as he may show some difficulty in containing the pressure.
With 2.07 fouls per game in the league this season, the Zambian is no stranger to making a few challenges during the game and coming out on the wrong side of them. When he is faced with a player dribbling towards him, he only successfully tackles the player 22% of the time, which gives a lot of room for fouls to be made. We can expect this to happen during the game as not only do Chelsea have some tricky players, but they have six possible starters that draw two fouls or more during a game. With Mwepu facing some quick dribblers, he may get his judgement a little bit wrong.
The 23-year-old makes most of his tackles (56%) in the middle third of the pitch, so he will be looking to put a stop to when Chelsea are moving the ball quickly and are trying to build some momentum. With The Blues impressive at moving the ball, this could easily lead to Mwepu making some bad challenges in the middle third. With Mike Dean, the ref, averaging 3.18 yellow cards per game this season, the midfielder can easily find himself in the book.
Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea fans will only have one thing on their mind – Lukaku is back. After scoring a goal and winning a penalty in 45 minutes during his last game against Aston Villa, Blues fans are starting to gain confidence yet again that their Belgian target-man is starting to fire after coming back from injury. With Chelsea looking to win this game easily in a match that is presented to them as a must-win for their title hopes, Brighton will not see themselves as pushovers, standing strong and believing that they can get something out of the game.
Out of Chelsea’s twelve wins in the league this season, nine of them have been won by a goal margin of two or more, showing that The Blues like to net as many goals as they can to wrap up the game. The hosts have also scored the opening goal in 14 of their 19 games, which offers the fact that we could very likely see Chelsea in front first tonight. That stat ties in well with the fact that Brighton have conceded 65% of their goals in the first half. That mixes to suggest that the goal tally tonight could well start in the first half, with Chelsea netting the opening goal.
Brighton will look to pose a fight themselves. The Seagulls have scored in six of their last eight away games, showing that they don’t get nervous on the road. Another key stat to keep an eye on, is that the visitors have scored 38% of their goals after the 75th minute. Because of this, I expect Chelsea to get a foothold in the game, but I won’t put it past Brighton to score late on. Because of this, I think that there will be over 2.5 match goals.
Leandro Trossard to have 1+ Shot on Target
Despite Chelsea being favourites in the game, the possibility of Brighton competing to a high level should not be dismissed. When they have their moments in the offensive phase. I’m expecting Leandro Trossard to get a shot on target.
Averaging 2.61 shots per game, Trossard likes to trouble the opposition keeper as he averages 1.05 of those on target. As a tricky attacking player, the Belgian is currently in fine form after netting in his last game against Brentford. Looking to continue that momentum, I expect his confidence to be sky-high and for him to be the key to Brighton’s attacks. Playing 17 games so far this season in the league, he is a regular in the starting eleven for the Seagulls, so he has been able to gel and connect with his teammates to create attacking opportunities.
The 27-year-old sees 40% of his total shots end up on target, which is more clinical than other Premier League players. Netting four goals so far this season, he has an average shot distance of 19.3 yards which is just outside of the box. This shows that Trossard is not afraid to have a go from distance, and this contributes to selection even more as he may even have a shot during the game out of frustration, with loose long shots normally ending up bobbling into the keeper’s hands.
With five shots from free-kicks this season, this also shows that he is a good option from set-pieces, so if Chelsea are clumsy in their defending when Brighton break, Trossard is a real candidate to test the waters and end up with a shot on goal from a free-kick.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets, my predicted line-ups can be found below *
Chelsea vs Brighton Cheat Sheet
Chelsea Predicted 11 vs Brighton: Mendy; Azpilicueta, Christensen, Rudiger; James, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso; Ziyech, Mount; Lukaku (3-4-2-1)
Brighton Predicted 11 vs Chelsea: Sanchez; Lamptey, Webster, Burn, Cucurella; Bissouma, Lallana, Mwepu; Mac Allister; Trossard, Maupay (4-3-1-2)
Chelsea vs Brighton Cheat Sheet
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Chelsea vs Brighton in the Premier League
📅 When is Chelsea vs Brighton? / Wednesday, 29 December 2021, 19:30
🏟 Where is Chelsea vs Brighton? / Stamford Bridge (London)
📺 What TV Channel is Chelsea vs Brighton on? / Prime Video
📱 Online Live Streaming for Chelsea vs Brighton / bet365
🟨 …And who is the referee for Chelsea vs Brighton? / Mike Dean 🏴
