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This year’s Community Shield certainly has all the makings of an absolute classic.
A clash of the two best sides in the land last season, Pep Guardiola’s tenacious treble winners up against former apprentice Mikel Arteta’s young and exciting Arsenal side, the 2023 Community Shield is more than likely going to serve as a precursor of what is to come in the 2023/24 Premier League season.
This article looks back at the previous five Community Shields and work out whether there were any betting angles between the games that may be worth a punt on in this year’s final.
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Liverpool 3-1 Man City, July 30, 2022: Late goals from the Reds were enough for a victory over City as Darwin Nunez impresses.
Both teams went into the game off the back of having just signed big-money star strikers, Erling Haaland for City and Darwin Nunez for Liverpool. There were big expectations on the shoulders of the two players as fans viewed the final as a teaser of what they may expect from them both in the upcoming season.
In the end, it would be Nunez and Liverpool who would prevail in the battle, as the Uruguayan notched a stoppage-time goal on his competitive debut to seal the win for the Reds. In the game, both sides lined up in a standard 4-3-3 formation with inverted wingers, meaning the wide men were able to cut inside onto their stronger foot and have more shots on goal. The game saw a high volume of shots from each team: 15 from Liverpool and 14 from City.
This is a trend that is fairly likely to happen in the 2023 final too, as both teams enjoy expansive, attacking football, allowing for more opportunities on goal. On Betfair at the moment, both teams combined to have over 23.5 shots in the game at odds of 1.4, and this is a very tasty line that could turn out to be very profitable.
⚽ Over 23.5 shots for both teams combined
Leicester 1-0 Manchester City, August 7, 2021: A late penalty from ex-City man Kelechi Iheanacho wins the Community Shield for the Foxes.
This result came as a shock to many people, as it was expected for City to steamroll a Leicester side that had won the FA Cup against the odds just a few months prior.
As expected, City controlled the ball, completing nearly 150 more passes than their opponents. Like in the 2022 final, both sides hit double figures with the number of shots they had. Once again, this is a betting angle that we see happening in many Community Shield finals.
Leicester set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, and their main aim will more than likely have been to attempt to stifle the connection between the City midfield and their forward line. City’s 4-3-3 system was counteracted by the Leicester setup, so they were not given the freedom they expected.
Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool (Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties), August 29, 2020: Arsenal prevail on penalties to lift the trophy against the run of play.
Liverpool were expected to win this final with ease after a near-perfect season in the Premier League. It could be argued that this goes along with the trend that, in the Community Shield, the favourite doesn’t always win, and that is something to be mindful of in this year’s final.
Arsenal set up in a 3-4-3 formation that also allowed for the left and right midfielders to tuck back in as wing-backs, and this was something we saw happen quite often throughout the game when Arsenal were in the transition from attack to defence. Again, we saw a team set up in a traditional 4-3-3 system, with the Reds being the team to do so on this occasion. This is definitely a formation that could be seen in the 2023 final.
Liverpool had the majority of the ball within the game, and there was once again the trend of a large number of shots throughout the game. This further reinforces that the line of over 23.5 shots at 1.4 in this year’s final is a sensible option for a punt.
⚽ Arsenal to have over 3.5 shots on target
Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Man City win 5-4 on penalties), August 4, 2019: City win on pens as two Premier League powerhouses go head-to-head.
This was billed as ‘Liverpool’s chance for revenge’ after they so agonisingly lost the Premier League to their opponents by a mere point despite losing just one game all season. City, however, were coming into the final off the back of finishing the season as domestic treble winners.
The game was destined to be an entertaining one for the neutral. In some ways, this game went against the trend of a typical Man City fixture, as Liverpool had more of the ball and had more than double their opponent’s shots (17 to City’s eight). This game saw a lot of wasteful finishing as both sides missed all but one of their big chances.
As has been previously mentioned, both sides lined up in their traditional 4-3-3 formations with inverted wide players, once again allowing each winger to cut inside and have more shots with their strong foot. For this year’s final, Over/Under shots are definitely the way to go, whether that be for both teams combined or for each individual team. The trends show that this is a good line and would be an educated punt.
Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City, 5 August 2018: Ruthless Sergio Aguero puts Chelsea to the sword with a double.
As expected, City strolled to victory as they came off the back of a season in which they smashed a load of records in the Premier League, including being the first side ever to reach 100 points over the course of a season. Chelsea, on the other hand, had had quite a lacklustre season by their standards but had won the FA Cup with a victory over Manchester United thanks to an Eden Hazard penalty.
From start to finish, City dominated, ending the game with more possession, more completed passes, and a whopping 13 more shots on goal than Chelsea. Again, we saw the trend of a team setting up in the 4-3-3 formation, and on this occasion, it was Chelsea who were the team to do so. City, on the other hand, opted for a less conventional 4-1-4-1, which at the same time can transition into a 4-3-3 when moving from defence to attack.
To summarise, there were a few betting angles and trends that could be noticed throughout each of the last five Community Shield finals. As mentioned, the shots lines would be recommended, especially with the game being between two free-flowing attacking teams.
⚽ Man City to have over 12.5 shots
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