As well as being in play-off contention in terms of points won, the underlying data supports Coventry’s claims to be up and around the top six.

They have the 7th-best goal record with 46, 37 of those from open play, and the 6th-best defensive record for goals conceded.

Their seasonal xG total of 43.5 is also 7th-best in the league, but their xG against would only rank them 11th in the league.

The most supportive claim behind Coventry superiority in this game is probably their home form. They haven’t lost at home since 30th October against West Brom and though they have drawn too many overall, their xG dominance means that they could’ve won more of those draws if their finishing had been better.

Millwall are traditionally more of a home team than an away team, however, this season they have actually won more points away from The Den.

However, they have lost five of their last seven on the road, winning only once, and they have lost the xG battle in five of those seven as well. Creating chances away from home has been an issue with too many matches seeing less than 1xG in the Millwall column.

It is something of a surprise to find Callum O’Hare so low down in the list of odds for shots on target in this encounter.

He still has a small-ish sample size since his return from a serious injury, but that sample is pretty emphatic.

He is behind only Haji Wright in the Coventry squad for shots on target per 90 at 1.15, this is a very high ratio compared to his shots total of 2.22 per 90, which is perhaps where the odds are produced from.

Observing O’Hare’s play though, his shots are often from very advantageous positions from the centre of the box, obviously giving him a much better chance of hitting the target. He is worth a bet here.

Duncan Watmore, if he starts, is the closest to value on the Millwall side of the equation.

Watmore is a very useful forward at this level, being able to play in a number of roles. Whilst he probably doesn’t score as often as he could, he is very busy around the box and can usually be relied on to fire off a couple of shots at least.

It is the general trend in football, but especially so in the Championship, that home teams tend to dominate the corner count.

It is definitely the case here that Coventry at home earn more corners per match than visitors to the CBS.

There is a higher than average total corner count at 11.8, with 67% of matches at Coventry going over the 10.5 line. Coventry average 6.33 corners per home match and concede 5.47, which isn’t a huge margin.

However, confidence in expecting more Coventry corners comes from Millwall’s away data. The Lions have the 2nd-lowest away corners earned total in the league, only above Rotherham, at 3.27.

When observing the fouls data it is a standout feature amongst both teams how much their forwards are fouling the opposition.

Haji Wright and Zian Flemming are the clubs’ leaders for fouls in the Championship, which is potentially an indication of two things: a) they are key helpers with the forward press for both sides, and b) aerial duels are often the causes of fouls for these players.

Wright has committed 41 fouls so far but has received only 1 yellow card, this sometimes means that he is due a card, but more likely that his fouls aren’t dangerous or significant enough to receive a card, which makes him much better value in this market than the cards market.

Another angle that stands out is that Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is someone who is being fouled an awful lot. He has 40 fouls against him in 18.8 sets of 90 minutes.

Joe Bryan, the likely direct opponent of Sakamoto, averages over a foul a game, so looks a good addition for at least one foul here, and might be worth chancing for two.