Although Chiesa hasn’t managed a shot on target just yet, he did shoot against Spain and had 3 shots against Albania on matchday one. His domestic stats for Juventus also make for kind reading. In 24.4 Serie A 90s last term, Chiesa managed 25 shots on target, an average of 1.02 per 90.

The Italians are still waiting for Gianluca Scamacca to score another goal for the national side and are still heavily reliant on goals from other sources in the meantime.

Given that Croatia conceded seven shots on target against Albania and with Chiesa eligible for the Super Sub for any other attacking options Italy might bring on to replace him, this has a good chance of landing. Especially against a Croatian backline that has already conceded five goals and have to win this game.

Albania caused big problems to the Croatian defence and in particular to Dominik Livakovic in the Croatian goal. He faced an Albanian xGF of 1.46 and made five saves in the match.

Even in the game against Spain where three goals were shipped, he still made two saves and perhaps should have had more.

Italy had just the one shot on target against Spain but average four shots on target across the past three international seasons – they also hit five against Albania. With Croatia desperately needing the win, they will throw players forward, leaving them vulnerable in defence.

Gianluigi Donnarumma was outstanding against Spain and Italy’s best player on the night. If it wasn’t for him, the scoreline may have been much worse for the Italians. He made eight saves and the stats show he prevented 1.10 goals.

Granted, Croatia will not be as strong in an attacking sense than the Spanish, but they did still win the xG battle against Spain in their encounter and still scored twice against the Albanians, having five shots on target there.

With everything on the line and Italy not necessarily looking like a vintage defensive unit of old, Croatia will also have chances in what should be an open encounter.

Italy received just two bookings to Spain’s three in their encounter and levelled the bookings count to two a piece against Albania.

In a game where Croatia will be absolutely desperate to get the win, Italy could quite well employ some of the dark arts in a bid to frustrate the Croatians and hit them on the counter.

It should be said that Croatia picked up just one yellow card against Albania and none against the Spanish, but context here is everything and in a game like this, it would be very surprising if Croatia were not pushing themselves to the very limit and the potential of frustrations kicking in later in the game.

From watching Chiesa so far, he is knocking on the door and looks likely to give a standout performance soon. He created two chances against Albania and has fired four efforts at goal in the two matches he’s played so far.

We like the option of both facets to his game, as both creator and goalscorer and he should have built up the match fitness to really fire on all cylinders in this game.

Italian coach, Luciano Spaletti, has already spoken of Chiesa’s ability and personality and he’ll be hoping for a good performance from him to secure Italy’s place in the knockout rounds.

Somewhat linked to the cards angle but also from a tactical standpoint, Croatia made changes in the second half against Albania with an injection of fresh legs. They racked up 15 fouls against Albania and 13 against Spain. They average 11 fouls per game across the last two International seasons.

The Spanish hit 18 fouls against Italy, which shows they have an ability to keep the ball in tight areas and draw fouls. With Italy safe with just a point in this game to go through, but also the possibility of a Croatian backline being exposed by Italy’s forward players, the fouls line for Croatia is an appealing addition to our long shot selection.