This isn’t the first and probably won’t be the last time I write about Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys have clearly been playing well below expectation and I think a lot of that can be put on the organisation as a whole. While they paid both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb they apparently didn’t save enough money for any other playmakers. The result is teams absolutely lock in on slowing down Lamb, which will create opportunities for the rest of his teammates. We have seen Ferguson consistently take advantage of that. Despite only recording 3 catches in a 47-9 loss last week he’s still been on fire recently. In the games before that he combined for 19 targets going 6-70, 7-49, and 6-95. The 49ers have dealt with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball and I’m expecting the Cowboys to be on their A-game after a bye week. It’s do-or-die time, and I have a really hard time seeing this team succeed in the rushing game, expecting plenty of passing and Ferguson should benefit.

The Cowboys redzone defense ranks 31st in NFL and has really struggled this season. While the 49ers are a bottom-10 red zone offense for the first time in a while, this is their best matchup of the season. Jordan Mason is tied with Kyren Williams for most rushing attempts (31) inside the 20 in the NFL this season. He will continue to get red zone rushing attempts at an extremely high rate considering he is very backfield-limited competition. Considering they are dealing with multiple WR injuries, I have a hard time seeing them turn away from the run in the redzone. Trusting a bunch of inexperienced wide receivers is absolutely not something this team has done in recent years and opposing defenses will focus on limiting George Kittle once again. While they already run at an extremely high rate, we have plenty of reason to believe they will be even more aggressive here. This is a 49ers team that sustained McCaffery at a -250 price tag for a lot of last season.

The Cowboy's defensive line is in an absolutely brutal spot right now. Obviously, you can prepare all you want in the bye week, but now you suddenly have to face a team that has been able to dominate like no other on the ground. The Cowboys have the worst run defense in the league, on pace for historic numbers. The Cowboys have the 3rd worst total rush defense EPA in a 7 game start in the past 10 seasons. They currently rank dead last in PFF grade and EPA per play. Both Cowboys DE Micah Parsons and CB DaRon Bland have been officially ruled out for this matchup, meaning they are down two of their most talented players. There is plenty of upside potential, especially on a game that could be Mason's last. He had some injury concerns that slowed him down but bounced back last week and I think we see a complete workload with McCaffery knocking on the door ready to take his job back soon. Mason has three 100+ yard outings already this season and he quite literally gets his best matchup yet. In every career game with at least 10+ carries he’s ripped off a carry of 20+ yards and ranks top 10 in rush yards over expectation despite facing the most stacked boxes in the league.

There was no way I wasn’t going to bet CeeDee Lamb in some way for this game, but I’m incredibly surprised that this is + money. Lamb has consistently been one of the only wide receivers priced in that -110 range for a reason. This team sucks in the redzone, and it’s very possible a lot of that is because everybody knows they want to go to Lamb. While Elliot once was a dominant goal-line back, age has clearly caught up, and I just don’t see enough from Dowdle to be confident. Lamb has only recorded 2 touchdowns this season but coming out of a bye after a very public disagreement about his usage I'm expecting an elevated role. His ability to be involved not just in the receiving game but also average over a rush per game also gives me confidence we could see some creative red zone usage. Lamb at + money in a game against an injured 49ers squad sounds like a great plan.