Derby v Stoke

• Stoke have failed to score in their last two matches

• Derby have won back-to-back matches

• A win for either team would guarantee their safety, but a draw would likely be enough for both

• Stoke won the reverse fixture 2-1

While both teams look likely to stay up, this is still a big game in the Championship relegation scrap. Derby are 19th on 49 points, level with three other teams but with a much better goal difference. Stoke sit just above them in 18th on 50 points, only two clear of the drop.

Both sides are 18/1 to go down, so there are still a few nerves floating around, and the result is important for both sides. The bookies think it’ll be a tight one – the draw's priced at 3.0, with Derby slight favourites at 2.0 and Stoke out at 4.0. This could turn into a cagey, tense afternoon.

⭐ Derby v Stoke Predictions and Best Bets

Goals have been hard to come by for both sides, Derby average 1.07 per game and Stoke just 1.0. Stoke failed to score in their last two. Defensively, neither team leaks too many goals, especially given their league position. With the stakes high, a cautious approach and a low-scoring draw wouldn’t surprise here. Both teams know a draw would almost certainly be enough to keep both in the division next season.

Neither side tends to start fast, especially Derby, with 61% of their goals coming after the break. At home and in better form, they’re more likely to set the tone of the game and control its pace early on, making a half-time draw a solid shout given the context of this match.

⚪ Rams on the Verge of a Great Escape

Derby have found form at just the right time, picking up back-to-back wins – something they've only done twice before this season. While survival now looks very likely, they still need a result to make absolutely sure.

Their main issue has been in attack, averaging just 1.07 per game, though they’ve been fairly solid at the back for a team battling relegation, conceding 1.24 goals per game on average. With momentum behind them and home advantage, they'll be confident of getting something from this one, but their lack of cutting edge remains a concern.

🔴 Nervy Final Day Ahead for the Potters

It’s been a tough season for Stoke, especially away from home, where they've only managed four wins across the campaign. Goals have been a major problem on the road, with the team averaging just 0.72 per game away from the bet365 Stadium.

They come into this one off the back of two straight defeats and, while they’re still just above the drop zone, nerves will be creeping in. A draw would likely be enough to see them safe, but there’s a growing sense of pressure with the risk of a last-minute stumble looming large.

📊 Derby v Stoke Head-to-Head Key Stats

These sides last met back on November 2nd in a tight contest that saw Stoke edge it 2-1 with a late winner. It was a really even game – the xG was virtually level at 1.06–1.05, and there wasn’t much to separate them in terms of possession or shots on target either.

This time round, Derby have the home advantage and come into the match in better form, so they’ll fancy their chances. It’s still likely to be close, but with the momentum behind them, Derby might just edge it this time.

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is the place to be for Expert Football Predictions, and we're all over the final day of the EFL regular season, with our EFL Acca Tips, Championship Acca, and Championship Hit Rates Bet Builder.

We also have in-depth coverage of some of the other key fixtures in the Championship, such as West Brom v Luton, Coventry v Middlesbrough, and Portsmouth v Hull.

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Expert guides, such as this one, on xG in Football, are also available to help you up your punting game. For the best free-to-play gaming advice check out our bet365 6 Scores Tips and Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.