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Dortmund v Koln Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Dortmund v Koln Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Thursday 23 October, 20254 min read
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Harry Nye

Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.

In this article...

A consummate 4–2 win over Copenhagen in midweek action provided timely relief for Borussia Dortmund, who enter this clash without a win in their last two Bundesliga outings. They welcome near-neighbours and newly promoted Köln in the late Saturday kick-off, a fixture that on paper favours the hosts but carries potential pitfalls. The visitors have surprised many with their spirited start to life back in the top flight, collecting points at a rate unmatched by any promoted side in eight years. Dortmund’s quality is unquestionable, yet complacency against a side full of early-season belief could be costly.

These Dortmund v Koln Betting Stats also offer further insight ahead of Saturday's clash.

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Dortmund v Koln Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Dortmund v Koln
  • Bundesliga
  • 17:30
4 Selections @ 4.33

Dortmund to Win

This selection comes as little surprise given the gulf in quality between the two sides and Dortmund’s formidable recent form. Despite being held to a 1-1 draw at home last time out, that result came against Leipzig, a far stronger outfit than Saturday’s visitors. More significantly, that result extended Dortmund’s unbeaten home run to nine matches across all competitions (W8, D1).

While Köln have made an encouraging start to life back in the top flight, they are yet to face an opponent of Dortmund’s calibre. Their victories this season have come against Hoffenheim and Mainz, two sides that share the league’s worst home record (0 wins). When tested against higher-level opposition, their weaknesses have been exposed, as seen in the 3-1 defeat to Leipzig in September. History provides further cause for concern: Köln have lost the last three head-to-heads by an aggregate scoreline of 11-1 and have won at Dortmund just the once since 1991, a torrid 24-match stretch (D4, L19).

Koln Over 2.5 Corners

Despite being heavy underdogs, Köln have shown greater attacking intent than many expected and will likely register opportunities of their own. They average 6.2 corners per game on the road this season, clearing this line in all five across all competitions. Their direct play and willingness to attack in numbers have regularly forced set-pieces, even in defeat.

Dortmund, for their part, are not especially restrictive in this market. They are conceding an average of four corners per home match in all competitions, which rises to 5.33 in the Bundesliga. Each of their three home league fixtures this season has seen opponents reach at least three corners, making this a well-supported selection given Köln’s volume and approach.

Felix Nmecha to have 2+ Shots

Nmecha has flourished under Niko Kovač’s more progressive system, taking on a noticeably advanced midfield role. His attacking instincts were evident midweek when he scored twice in Dortmund’s 4-2 victory, reinforcing his growing confidence in front of goal. Averaging 1.61 shots per 90 minutes this season, he is consistently involved in the final third and isn’t shy of pulling the trigger when space opens up.

The matchup also favours him. Köln have allowed an average of 16.5 shots per game on the road in the Bundesliga, among the highest in the league. With Dortmund expected to dominate possession and territory, opportunities for Nmecha to reach this line should come naturally through late runs into the box and second-phase chances around the edge of the area.

Eric Martel to Commit 2+ Fouls

Martel is comfortably Köln’s most combative midfielder, averaging 2.22 fouls per 90 and committing at least one foul in seven of his eight appearances this season. His physical style and eagerness to press high often see him on the wrong side of challenges.

The tactical match-ups make this selection even more appealing. He will be operating in the same channel as Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund’s most-fouled player at 2.59 fouls won per 90) well as potentially drifting across to deal with Ryerson’s overlapping runs down the flank. Given the pace and dribbling threat in those central and wide areas, it’s hard to envisage Martel escaping without at least two infringements.

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📈 Dortmund v Koln Form & Tactics

In pursuit of their first Bundesliga crown since 2012, Dortmund’s decision to appoint Niko Kovač at the start of last year already appears a step in the right direction. His tenure has yielded just seven defeats in all competitions, and this season’s start (W4, D2, L1) reflects both progress and room for improvement. A 2–1 loss to rivals Bayern Munich and a frustrating draw have left them trailing the champions by seven points, but the midweek European win restored momentum. Dortmund have now scored in all eleven of their matches this term, extending a home unbeaten run to nine (W8, D1), during which they have netted three or more goals on seven occasions.

Köln arrive as firm underdogs but with quiet optimism. Lukas Kwasniok’s men have amassed eleven points from seven games, the best start by a newly promoted Bundesliga side since 2017. A late equaliser against Augsburg last time out underlined their resilience and ensured momentum heading into this daunting trip. They now seek consecutive away victories in the top flight for the first time since May 2023, something they failed to achieve at any stage of the season that led to their relegation. History, however, is stacked against them. Dortmund have won the last three league meetings, while Köln have claimed just one victory from their past twenty-four visits (D4, L19), a run that illustrates the gulf that still exists between the two sides.


📔 Dortmund v Koln Formation & Team News

Dortmund’s recent switch to a 3-4-2-1 has added structure and fluidity in equal measure. Niko Kovač has embraced the shape, using the width of his wing-backs to stretch opponents while allowing the two attacking midfielders freedom between the lines. The approach has improved their transitional play, enabling them to recycle possession more effectively and maintain pressure in the final third. The back three of Bensebiani, Schlotterbeck and Süle offers experience, while the midfield pairing of Groß and Sabitzer ensures stability. There are no major fitness concerns following the midweek win, so Kovač is expected to field a largely unchanged lineup.

Köln, under Lukas Kwasniok, are likely to persist with a compact 3-4-2-1 of their own. Their success has been built on discipline, hard running and quick counter-attacks rather than possession play. Linton Maina and Sebulonsen provide directness from wide areas, with Thielmann the typical focal point up front. The visitors’ shape often morphs into a deeper 5-4-1 when defending, allowing them to absorb pressure before springing forward in transition. With no fresh injury concerns either and confidence high after an encouraging start to life back in the top flight, Köln will aim to frustrate Dortmund’s rhythm and test their defensive organisation.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

There are plenty more Football Betting Tips, including European Football Predictions, and Bundesliga Betting Tips across this weekend's games.

We've got you covered for the weekend's action, with Both Teams to Score Tips, Over 2.5 Goals tips, as well as Napoli v Inter Milan Betting Predictions and Valencia v Villareal Betting Predictions.

Amongst the best bonuses of the weekend are the SkyBet Sign Up OfferBoyleSports Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer. There's a full list of the Best Free Bet Offers on-site, too, as well as the Best Odds Boosts.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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