Saturday’s 9/2 EFL Goals Treble

There are definite goals in East Anglia this season. There is very little difference between Norwich and Ipswich at the top of the xG creation charts, just 0.1xG, but Norwich do take current first place.

The loss of Josh Sargent is definitely a blow for Norwich, but it does give Adam Idah a long awaited chance to cement himself as a central forward for the first time. Ashley Barnes has provided everything that they wanted as a focal point, and Christian Fassnacht and Jon Rowe have provided a real threat to goal.

The star man in the line-up though is definitely Brazilian Gabriel Sara. Sara is the creative force in the team and is developing into one of the best players in the division. Stoke will have to work hard to keep tabs on him.

Stoke have been a disappointment so far. Not for the first time they have invested heavily into the playing squad over the summer but it may take some time for it all to come together. Andre Vidigal has hit the ground running, but will need more support from elsewhere.

There are plenty of tools in the Stoke attack to contribute to the goal tally here though, even if Norwich are rightful favourites. The Canaries haven’t been watertight despite being probably the best side in the division so far, Stoke will get chances on transition.

The summer window has passed, and plenty of the big hitters still remain at London Road. Standard procedure saw many of Posh’s one-year-remaining assets transfer listed with the possibility of moving on. Regulars like Jack Taylor and Oliver Norburn already have, but Darren Ferguson has still retained the services of prospect England youth defender Ronnie Edwards, as well as his formidable frontline.

Ephron Mason-Clark, Jonson Clarke-Harris and Kwame Poku combined for 39 league goals last season, 26 of them from Clarke-Harris. Joel Randall has emerged into the team as a lively attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1, supported by the rigidity of tall midfielder Hector Kyprianou and metronome man Archie Collins who sit deeper behind him. The versatile Harrison Burrows and dynamic Rotherham United loanee Peter Kioso form a flying pair of full-backs in a team which consistently looks to attack when at League One level.

Leyton Orient were one of the few in League One action during the September international break, picking up a huge 2-1 victory away at them-table-topping Exeter City. Richie Wellens’ title winners
haven’t taken to third tier life as smoothly as first hoped, but look to be finding their feet. Key to their success will be the output from attacking midfielder George Moncur, as well as versatile wide
man Theo Archibald and the forward pair of Ruel Sotiriou and Joe Pigott who both scored at St. James Park last Saturday.

Tunisian Ipswich Town loanee Idris El Mizouni in turn provides an influential role as a tempo-setting midfielder, with Jordan Graham deployed at both winger and wing-back whilst Wellens finds a suitable setup. A 3-4-1-2 was deployed at Exeter after previously struggling with a 4-2-3-1 for other league matches.

Orient’s latest win has created some breathing space between themselves and the bottom four, and that will be handy away at a Peterborough United who still possess a frightening team sheet. Posh have already seen 17 goals in their six league matches in 2023-24, whilst Leyton Orient fixtures have seen a total of 18. At full flight, Peterborough will be keen to return to the levels which saw them net 75 goals in 2022-23. Their opponents meanwhile have just one clean sheet to their name on the road since the 15th April.

Looking for a League Two goalfest? Look no further than Swindon Town.

Six matches. Thirty-one goals. A 5-5 draw. A 6-0 win. A 5-3 win. Michael Flynn has got his side playing some wonderful football and confidence is super high, especially in striker Jake Young and attacking midfielder Dan Kemp.

It’s deserved too. While the actual numbers are unlikely to remain so high, they are averaging 1.62xG per game and only the drab 0-0 with Doncaster Rovers, a huge outlier, saw them manage less than five shots on target. They’re not particularly great defensively either, their xGA at just shy of two over the course of the season. It’s little wonder both teams have scored in four of their six matches while there have been over 2.5 in five.

Are Walsall likely to keep up this energy? The likely answer is yes. Both teams have scored in six of their seven league games with five of those containing three or more goals.

Their underlying numbers aren’t huge – 1.18xG and 1.25xGA – but they are plentiful and accurate in their finishing – they have managed 16 or more attempts on goal in three of their last four matches and had at least five shots on target in their last five. They have conceded at least 1xG in five of their seven games.