Rosenborg v Viking

In what was truly a wild encounter, Rosenborg suffered their first defeat in ten games last week when they lost 3-4 away to Tromsø. RBK led 3-2 at half time but didn’t have a good second half and they remain fourth in the table as a result. It was a disappointment for manager Kjetil Rekdal because they had been carrying some serious momentum and even turning into a dark horse for the title. A medal spot is still within reach though and this team has definitely made some progress this season. They have much better offensive firepower than they once did, with new signing upfront Casper Tengstedt catching the eye. Another new man from Iceland, Kristall Mani Ingasson scored a brace of goals last week, but the bad news is that he broke his collarbone vs Tromsø and will be ruled out for up to 8 weeks. That is disappointing for the young talent who has given RBK some extra energy and drive. RBK are very reliable at home winning 7 out of 9 contests at the Lerkendal Stadion and yet to suffer defeat in front of their own fans.

Viking have been in poor form and dropped down to 6th place in the table. Most of their better results were in the first half of the season and they have now only won 2 of their last 12 Eliteserien games.  In midweek, Viking lost 1-2 away to Kristiansund which was obviously a bitter blow facing the team rock bottom of the standings. The simple fact is they didn’t play well enough or assert themselves in the match. This has been a hectic fixture schedule for Viking who have played a lot of European Conference League qualifiers recently. They are probably still gutted from being knocked out so late by Romanian outfit FCSB in heart breaking fashion. They don’t look the same team without talisman Veton Berisha who got sold to Swedish club Hammarby. In defence they also haven’t been the same since Giovanni Stensness got injured. He isn’t due back until October.

Viking will have a go in this match, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score a goal, but the best bet looks to be Rosenborg to win on the nose. At a price of 1.75 this looks generous enough on a team who have been excellent at home this season and facing an out of form Viking. RBK have also had a full seven days to prepare for this fixture, whereas Viking seem really tired and fatigued right now. I think this will ultimately end in a comfortable Rosenborg victory.

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Odd v Jerv

Out of all the teams in the Eliteserien, Odd are probably the hardest team to predict. This team can blow very hot or cold and is capable of absolutely anything on the day. This would appear to be one of the most straightforward of situations for Paco Johansen’s men though at home to struggling Jerv. Odd have picked up four points from their last two games vs Sarpsborg & Aalesund respectively. They have looked improved recently and definitely have the extra quality and class required to win this match. Odd have the fourth worst home record in the league and have lost 6 out of 10 contests at the Skagerak Arena. Goalscoring has not been one of the strengths of this side, netting just 21 goals in 20 games. This is despite having an xG of 33.20 so they massively underachieved this metric. To try and solve this problem the club recently signed former Stabaek and Los Angeles FC striker Adama Diomande. This looks like a really good addition, and he could be in line to start this match after coming off the bench for 26 mins last week. 

Diomande, or whoever starts upfront should be able to fill their boots against a terrible Jerv away side who concede a lot of goals. The newly promoted side look out of their depth at Eliteserien level and have lost 8 out of 9 fixtures on their travels with a terrible 5:28 goal differential. They have the worst xGA in the league, averaging 2.35 per match which is an astronomically high figure. At the other end of the field, they are toothless, netting just 14 goals in 20 games which is the lowest number of any side in this division. Nobody expected much from Jerv this season and it is obvious on paper they have the worst squad. With Kristiansund recently improving their form then it is likely they will eventually finish bottom of the table. 

Odd should comfortably win this match but backing them at a price of 1.33 isn’t the most attractive in the world. I think it makes sense to add some extra value by taking Odd to win and over 1.5 goals in the match. I would be surprised if they only won 1-0 and any other victory is covered with this bet. Considering Jerv’s poor defence then this makes total sense, and it can be backed at a juicier 1.50.

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Sarpsborg v Ham Kam

The form of Sarpsborg is absolutely terrible. They have lost eight consecutive league matches and slid down to 14^th place in the table which is the relegation playoff spot. They are fortunate that Kristiansund are rock bottom and that Jerv are looking so terrible otherwise the automatic relegation places would be in play. This was a team that started the season so well under the management of Stefan Billborn, who brought a new attack minded and entertaining approach to the club. I am not sure how things have turned so sour, but Sarpsborg have not helped themselves by making several individual mistakes, especially defensively where the high risk tactics from the manager perhaps don’t suit certain players. Sarpsborg have conceded a massive 40 goals this season which is toppled by only Jerv & Sandefjord. Their average xGA per game of 1.95 demonstrates that this is a legitimately terrible defence. Centre back Bjorn Inge Utvik is ruled out until mid-October with a foot problem which won’t help them.

Travelling here are a Ham Kam outfit who managed to win for the first time in nine games last week when they beat Haugesund 1-0. That was only their fourth win of the season, and their main problem has been converting draws into victories. Ham Kam are a difficult team to beat and have drawn an incredible 11 out of their 20 matches this season. Their 24 goals conceded is the best record outside of any team in the current top three and that is quite impressive. They can always fall back on their 5-4-1 formation if needed and they can be difficult to penetrate. Picking up one point would not be a bad outcome for Ham Kam because it would keep them four points clear of any relegation trouble. I would expect them to have a fairly cautious game plan and just try to hit Sarpsborg on the break.

All Ham Kam have to do is sit and wait for Sarpsborg to make mistakes. This is a team that usually finds a way to mess up matches and they are their own worst victim many times. I find it remarkable that Sarpsborg are such a short-priced favourite to win this match at 1.83. They have home advantage but carry absolutely no form into this game with eight straight defeats. Taking Ham Kam on the X2 draw double chance looks like the best, and certainly the bet which represents the most value. They should not be priced this big to simply avoid defeat.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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