Gem Bet: Espanyol v Mallorca
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Pol Lozano to Commit 2+ Fouls @ 1.66 (bet365)
✅ bet365 - 1.66
SkyBet - 1.17
Paddy Power - 1.14
Betfair - 1.14
- Espanyol v Mallorca
- La Liga
- 20:00
A £10 bet on this Gem Bet returns £16.66 if it wins.
This Gem Bet is best price with bet365. Join here and claim a new customer offer.
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Pol Lozano to commit two or more fouls is well priced at 1.66 with bet365. Yet, the standout value lies in the market disparity, where this same line is as short as 1.14 elsewhere, implying an 87.7% likelihood.
The numbers back it up. Lozano has already racked up 12 fouls across the opening three games of this campaign, averaging a hefty 4.32 per 90. That might look unsustainable, but it aligns with his long-standing record. Last season in La Liga, he averaged 2.57 fouls per 90 and, with the added safety of bet365’s Sub On, Play On, this line cleared in 17 of his last 25 starts.
His matchups only suggest more of the same. Likely to be tasked with handling a tricky left side midfield featuring Manu Morlanes (2.25 fouls won per 90) and Pablo Torre (1.41 fouls won per 90), Lozano is set for a combative night. The pair are averaging just shy of six duels won per 90 between them, further indicating he will be heavily engaged in midfield battles.
Given his pre-established fouling tendencies, the way this season has started, and the quality of his direct opponents, the odds of 1.66 look far too generous. With 1.14 available elsewhere, it’s hard to see a better value on Monday night.
For more predictions and insight into this match, check out our Espanyol v Mallorca Betting Tips.
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