Gem Bet: Esperance v Chelsea
Harry Nye
Harry is a Christchurch-based football enthusiast whose love for sport and numbers naturally led him into the world of sports betting. While studying Mathematics at university, Harry began combining his analytical mindset with his passion for football. Harry focuses predominantly on football, with a particular emphasis on the Bundesliga this season, though as a Liverpool supporter (with a soft spot for QPR thanks to his dad), English football remains close to his heart. Whether it's late-night research or diving into stat models, Harry thrives on spotting the bets others might miss.
💎 Gem Bet: Moises Caicedo to Commit 2+ Fouls v Esperance @ 1.80 (bet365)
- Esperance v Chelsea
- FIFA Club World Cup
- 02:00
A £10 bet on this bet builder returns £18.00 if it wins.
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Moises Caicedo to commit 2 or more fouls is a standout value selection heading into the next round of Club World Cup action, with Bet365 offering a generous 1.80 price — a figure that implies just a 55.5% probability.
That’s a significant undervaluation, especially when benchmarked against PaddyPower’s odds of 1.25, which reflect an implied likelihood of 80%. When considering Caicedo’s season-long discipline trends, his style of play, and likely matchups, it’s clear the 1.80 price is simply overpriced.
The Ecuadorian midfielder has become a physical and ever-present figure in Chelsea’s setup, with his defensive output and aggressive midfield engagement well documented. Prior to the Club World Cup:
He averaged 1.84 fouls per 90
Committed at least two fouls in each of his last four club appearances.
Across those last 38 starts for Chelsea, Caicedo recorded 2 or more fouls in 24 of them, collecting 12 yellow cards in that span (Chelsea’s most carded player)
That trend has only continued into this tournament. Caicedo has already committed 2 and 3 fouls in his two Club World Cup appearances, picking up a yellow card last time out. His physical approach and ball-winning instincts inevitably put him into frequent duels — a situation expected to repeat itself against a tricky El Tunis right-hand side.
Whichever configuration the Tunisian side opts for, Caicedo is likely to be busy. Their right channel boasts a set of ball carriers and dribblers that are particularly adept at drawing contact:
Mockwana (RM): 1.70 fouls drawn per 90
Belaili (RAM/RST): A remarkable 4.00 fouls drawn per 90
Ben Ali (RB): 2.07 fouls drawn per 90
Guenichi (RCM): 1.64 fouls drawn per 90
(All metrics sourced from current CWC performances.)
The only caveat to consider is Caicedo’s positional deployment. He is expected to operate on the left side of Chelsea’s midfield double pivot, which would place him directly in line to face this cluster of right-sided threats. It’s advisable to confirm his starting position upon team news, but assuming he does feature on the left, the matchup couldn’t be more primed.
With his statistical profile, proven track record of fouls, and the pressure of a result in this fixture, odds of 1.8 present significant value.
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