In this article…
🏆 Spain to Win (in 90 mins) @ 2.30 on Betfair
🟨 Marc Guehi to be shown a card @ 6.50 on Sky Bet
Ahead of Sunday’s Euro 2024 final between Spain and England, we have a bit of niche insight for this mammoth clash, courtesy of professional odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe.
Mark is a regular on many of the premier betting podcasts such as Betfair and BetUS TV, and has given us exclusive insight into where he thinks the value lies ahead of Sunday’s clash in Berlin.
Along with Mark’s insight, we also have plenty Euro 2024 betting tips here at Andy’s Bet Club ahead of the final, like our Euro 2024 final bet builder tips and Euro 2024 final betting preview alongside our shot on target predictions and foul betting tips. Our experts have also crafted a Euro 2024 final: England v Spain longshot bet at 22/1.
Make sure also to check out our best bet builder bookmakers and Euro 2024 free bet offers to ensure you get the best value from our football tips.
🔍 Mark Stinchcombe’s Euro 2024 Final Best Bets
‘It looks a tough ask for Gareth Southgate’s England to beat Spain in 90 minutes based on his record when up against top 10 ranked FIFA nations. W7 D6 L10, so failing to win 16 of 23 matches (70%), scoring just 24 goals in that period. And it looks even harder when you consider Spain have been the best team in the tournament, having defeated all of France, Germany, Italy, and Croatia on their way to the final. They sit top in all of the following metrics:
- Most goals (2.2pg v England’s 1.2pg)
- Fewest conceded (0.5pg v England’s 0.7pg)
- Most expected goals for (11.1 v England’s 5.6)
- Most big chances created (21 v England’s 11)
- Most possession won in final 3rd (7.3 v 3.7)
So not only have they been excellent with the ball creating chances, but they’ve also been excellent at winning the ball back high up the pitch.
Spain have won 14 of their last 18 games in 90 minutes over the last 12 months (78%), compared to just three wins in their last 11 matches for England in 90 minutes. If you took the average of Spain’s xG For and England’s xG Against (2.2 and 0.7 = 1.45) and the average of England’s xG For and Spain’s xG Against (1.2 and 0.5 = 0.85) as a rough guide to forecast their output for the final, Spain’s odds would actually be [10/11] yet the market has them priced at [7/5] (various) so they have to be backed at the odds.‘
🏆 Spain to Win (in 90 mins) @ 2.30 on Betfair
Player Bookings
‘Marc Guehi has been booked in three of his last seven starts for England since being essentially confirmed as Harry Maguire’s replacement in the starting XI and is [11/2] (SkyBet) to be carded here again. Guehi commits the second most fouls per game for England and in the new back three system, will be tasked with coming across to clean up behind the full-back as well as dealing with superstar Lamine Yamal.‘
🟨 Marc Guehi to be shown a card @ 6.50 on Sky Bet
Written by Andy Robson
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