Drawn in a very tough group, this is a must-win match for Steve Clarke’s side, even though it is the first of the campaign. Scotland do not have a reputation for making light of such games, but they should be too strong for Cyprus, who are not a side that travels well.

Indeed, the last fixture of the Cypriot team was a 5-1 Nations League loss in Kosovo. They also lost 3-0 in Greece during that competition. Indeed, they have been beaten in six of their last eight away from home since June 2021 by at least two goals.

Scotland, meanwhile, have won six of eight at home since the Euros, with their failures coming against Poland and Ukraine – far better sides than Saturday’s visitors. Two of their last three matches at Hampden have been won by at least two goals and the home fans will hope to celebrate manager Steve Clarke’s new contract with a similarly comfortable success here.

John McGinn is undoubtedly Scotland’s talisman and it is remarkable that he is on offer at 3.75 to score any time given that he has twice as many international goals as anyone else in the squad with the exception of Lyndon Dykes. The Aston Villa man is given freedom to attack with the national team that he is not offered at club level – and he revels in it. Indeed, he has scored three goals in his last five internationals.

To reduce the risk on this bet, it’s worth throwing in the possibility of an assist, too, given he has three decisive passes in his last nine internationals – all of which have come against tougher opposition than Cyprus.

One particularly attractive feature of McGinn’s game for a bet like this is that he is rarely replaced. In an era of five possible substitutes, he has played the full 90 in seven of his last nine international appearances. If Scotland are cruising, he may well be withdrawn ahead of Spain – but in this case he is likely to have delivered offensively.

On the face of it, this is not a game that should be particularly fiery or ill-tempered. Cyprus, for example, have seen exactly one card in eight of their last nine international fixtures – and in the other they were not cautioned at all. Scotland, by contrast, have seen at least two bookings in each of their last three, with three cautions in two of those games. Backing Scotland to be shown more cards at 3.75 might have some merit, then.

Where the real value is for a bet builder is on over 3.5 cards. This isn’t because either of the teams is particularly dirty, but referee Duje Strukan is particularly card happy. The Croat has overseen 24 games in the 2022/23 season and has shown four cards in 22 of these games. In the other two, he gave out three cautions. The 38-year-old is a volatile match official and likes to be centre stage, so look for the yellow to be flashed regularly.

These sides were drawn together in qualifying for the last European Championships. Croatia won 2-1 at home but they were only able to manage a 1-1 draw when they travelled to Cardiff. Wales were blunt at the World Cup and only managed to score from the penalty spot. However, a more youthful attacking line-up should see them have more of an edge going forward.

Wales have scored in their last six away internationals. Over this period their matches are seeing an average of 3.5 goals per game. They have only managed one clean sheet in those matches and this came against Estonia.

Croatia have only failed to score in one of their last 16 matches on home turf. They were defensive in Qatar but their approach differs when they have the backing of the home support. Both teams have scored in four of Croatia’s last five home matches.

We are also going to back the home side to come out on top. This is a big game for Croatia and a win would put them in really good shape for the rest of the campaign. On paper, Wales and Turkey look to be Croatia’s biggest challengers. Beating the Welsh in the opening game would take the pressure off considerably.

Croatia have won three of the last four matches against Wales and the only draw came away from home. Austria are the only side to beat Croatia in their last 10 matches in their own backyard.

Wales have lost their last five matches where they have been similarly priced by the bookmakers to win. Croatia have won four of their last five where they have been similarly priced to win the match (1.40-1.65).

Croatia picked up five cards in both of the meetings between these sides in Euro 2020 qualifying. Their experienced midfield aren’t afraid of making cynical fouls to stop opposition counter attacks and they can lack the pace to keep up with pacier attackers.

Croatia are averaging just 1.20 cards per game in their last 10 home matches but the physicality of the Welsh side seems to bring out the worst in them. Kieffer Moore is likely to feature up front for Robert Page’s men. The target man is a significant aerial threat and he can often be seen tussling with the opposition’s defence.

The referee for this one is from Portugal. He is prolific in terms of cards. He is handing out an average of 5.9 cards per game across the last 20 matches he has officiated. He gave both teams at least 2 cards in all of the international matches he took charge of in 2022.