In this article…
Exeter v Lincoln
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Kick Off: Saturday 16th November at 12:30
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Competition: League One
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
It is the battle of the Citys on Saturday lunchtime as Exeter, representing the South-West, entertains Lincoln, from the East, in an intriguing League One battle. Only two points separates the two clubs heading into this encounter, although each can say they’ve won seven League One games this season.
The league table might suggest this is not necessarily the case, but Exeter are actually in excellent form. Not only have they achieved three wins in a row in all competitions, it is only three losses in 14, again in all competitions. Over that period, Gary Caldwell’s side have recorded an impressive ten victories.
Lincoln did suffer consecutive league losses last month, however, they have since reacted well by going three league fixtures unbeaten, including two 2-1 triumphs. Where The Imps have been especially strong over time is away from home. Only Blackpool and Crawley have beat them on their travels over the entirety of 2024 so far.
⭐ Exeter v Lincoln Best Bets
Only two teams in League One have seen a double-digit amount of their league games feature both teams scoring. One is Peterborough and the other is Lincoln. Only four of their league contests in 2024/25 have not contained each side finding the back of the net. Seven of their last ten in all competitions have done so, too.
Exeter may be considerably lower in that same category but it has become a much more regular occurrence in recent times. The Grecians have seen three of their previous five in all competitions do so, during which the average goals per match in that period is a high 3.80. Things could be starting to change in relation to Exeter fixtures being more goal-laden.
👕 Exeter v Lincoln Predicted XI
🔍 Exeter v Lincoln Player to Watch
⚪ Paudie O’Connor
The Lincoln captain is a key part of Michael Skubala’s jigsaw and he plays an important role for the team on the pitch. The former Bradford City man is a huge threat on set-piece situations, so much so he is ranked second in the Lincoln squad in terms of a number of shots in league action. He is playing in a team that has scored the most goals via set pieces in the division and he is clearly a big target to get on the end of crosses in such scenarios.
There is also no doubting his commitment to the cause, although it does tend to lead to him attracting attention from the referee. This is a player ranked fourth in the Imps squad for the number of fouls committed and the fact he has received five cards from those offensives is quite telling. It relates that O’Connor has been carded for a third of his offensives, which is a very high strike rate for Lincoln’s joint third-highest league scorer of the campaign.
📂 Exeter v Lincoln Cheat Sheet
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💻 Exeter v Lincoln Form and Tactics
Although Lincoln may have seven more league goals to their name than Exeter, the League One xG shows only a tiny difference between both outfits. The main takeaway however is Saturday’s home side are slightly underachieving their xG by just over two goals. Still, they have been victorious in the game-by-game xG battle in five of their previous seven in all competitions.
Along with Wrexham, The Grecians have conceded the fewest number of league goals this season with ten, which works out as an average of 0.77 per match. It is still a reality to say they are overachieving on their xGA by just shy of six goals. However, for every negative, there is a positive, such as the fact they are ranked third in the league for average corners awarded with 6.22. Only Barnsley have scored more goals at this level specifically via corners.
Exeter will expect to dominate most of the possession in this match considering they average approximately 10% more in comparison to Lincoln across the League One campaign so far. Caldwell’s men are averaging the third-highest number of fouls committed with 12.45 per league contest, proving that they know how to break up the speed of the game if and when required.
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Only Birmingham, Huddersfield, and Stevenage have achieved a stronger xGA return compared to Michael Skubala’s Imps outfit this season. Lincoln’s figure stands at 13.05 despite conceding 17 goals, so they are underperforming in that regard a little bit. However, they’ve done this despite holding the lowest average ball possession statistic in the division with 40.10%, proving they are fairly happy to soak up pressure.
Going forward, a major part of their play comes from getting crosses into the box. This is because they lead the league in relation to the number of headed goals scored with nine. Those nine have come from a total of seven players, proving they have many aerial targets that can be a threat in the box. On the flip side, they’ve conceded only two headed goals in league action, with only three other teams doing so fewer times.The LNER Stadium club are also not afraid to be somewhat committed in their defensive approach.
This is based on the fact they’ve received two red cards in the league this season, the joint-highest along with Northampton and Bristol Rovers. Also, despite being regularly second-best in retaining possession, only Birmingham and Huddersfield have conceded fewer shots on their own goal compared to Lincoln. This demonstrates a highly effective organisational shape when without the ball.
🏁 Exeter v Lincoln Ref Watch
- Referee: Thomas Parsons
- This referee has averaged 4.67 cards per game across this season so far when overseeing men’s football. Parsons has officiated matches in League One, League Two, National League, and EFL Trophy. This figure is roughly on par with last season, where he averaged 4.72 cards.
- Parsons has handed out two red cards across his last eight matches. Each of these would come within the first half. A minimum of three cards has been issued in 75% of his games in the current campaign.
- Saturday will be Parson’s 16th League One contest of his career. Over the previous 15, he has granted an average of 22.27 fouls per game.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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