Greece have emerged as the dominant force in their Nations League group, winning four of their five matches, including a dramatic injury-time victory over England at Wembley. This team has displayed excellent tactical discipline, combining defensive solidity with an effective attacking setup.

Their September encounter with Finland highlighted their superiority, as they secured a commanding 3-0 victory, completely shutting down Finland’s offence, which failed to register a single shot on target.

In stark contrast, Finland has endured a disastrous campaign, losing all five matches, scoring just twice, and conceding 11 goals. The team has looked disorganised and outclassed at this level, struggling to compete against well-structured sides like Greece.

With automatic promotion still a possibility, Greece will approach this game with focus and intensity. At odds of 2.0, backing Greece to win represents excellent value, especially considering their recent form and head-to-head dominance over Finland.

Greece’s captain and midfield maestro, Anastasios Bakasetas, has been pivotal to their Nations League success. The Panathinaikos playmaker leads his team in shot attempts, with 14 efforts across the campaign, averaging an impressive 3.3 shots per 90 minutes.

Bakasetas has consistently been a threat in the final third, registering multiple shots in four of Greece’s five matches. Even in their tough 3-0 loss to England, he managed a shot, showcasing his determination. What sets him apart is his accuracy; he has hit the target in every Nations League game so far.

Finland’s defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 11 goals in five matches, make Bakasetas a prime candidate to capitalise on their lapses. With Greece pushing for a crucial win to secure promotion, their captain’s attacking prowess and composure in key moments make him excellent value to score anytime.

Greece have been in stellar form, winning five of their last six matches while consistently displaying attacking prowess. Under the guidance of Ivan Jovanovic, they have scored at least two goals in each of these victories, illustrating their efficiency in breaking down opposition defences.

This trend is particularly significant considering Finland’s ongoing defensive struggles. The Finnish side have conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven matches, exposing their inability to handle sustained attacking pressure.

Greece’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses, combined with their momentum and motivation to secure promotion, makes the odds of 1.44 for over 1.5 goals highly attractive. With Greece likely to dominate possession and create multiple chances, this selection offers significant value given their recent scoring form and Finland’s consistent defensive lapses.

We are essentially going for Greece to hit this line by themselves here, with little attacking threat expected from Finland.

Finland’s offensive struggles have been a defining feature of their Nations League campaign. The Finnish side has managed to score just twice in their five matches, highlighting their inability to generate consistent attacking threats.

Greece, on the other hand, have been defensively solid, keeping clean sheets in three of their five Nations League games. In fact, Greece has only conceded more than once in three of their last 14 matches, and those came against elite teams like England, Germany, and France.

Finland have not scored in three out of their last five matches, further emphasising their limited attacking potency. At 1.67, this selection reflects the likely outcome of a match where Greece’s structured defence is expected to comfortably handle Finland’s limited offensive efforts. Meanwhile, the goals selection above is based on the Greek's attacking potency.