Lahti v Ilves
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Friday 29th July- 4:00PM
Lahti are in dire form having lost their last three games, conceding twelve goals in the process. Last weekend saw them fielding two sixteen-year-olds in midfield while coach Mikko Mannila struggles to get the defence to adjust to playing three at the back. There were enormous gaps in defeat to SJK, allowing the attacks to pass through at will, where a stronger team would have scored a lot more than three. They’ve been busy signing up a variety of free agents from across Europe to shore up a squad full of inexperience and ill-discipline, but they will need time to gel.
Their opponents have found themselves a real cutting edge in Adam Larsson who has scored in each of his two appearances so far, the combination with skipper Petteri Pennanen was razor sharp already against HJK with a great cross and opening goal – but they lost despite scoring first. Ilves haven’t put two consecutive wins together since April and their inconsistency has kept them from any sort of challenge on the top half, but they will fancy their chances to get back to winning ways against this Lahti side.
That Lahti are only a win from escaping the relegation places says a lot about the lack of quality at the bottom of the table but I don’t see that win coming in this fixture and definitely unlikely to resist an effective Ilves attack.
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Prediction: Ilves to Win, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Honka v VPS
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Saturday 30th July- 3:00PM KO
The unlikely title challenge of Honka continued with a gritty 1-0 win against a poor Inter. A deep cross from in-form winger Rui Modesto allowed Edmund Arko-Mensah to score the only goal. But they have lost defender Mohammed Adams on a long-term loan to the Portuguese second division which is a blow but their first choices should be solid. Forward Agon Sadiku continues to look vibrant and dangerous and it won’t be long before bigger European fish come back to Espoo after scouting his predecessors Alfredo Morelos and Juan Alegria.
Against this VPS side, the youngsters should find plenty of opportunity for goals but they’re facing a side with a wily pair of strikers and a very good away record. Kalle Multanen’s brace against Haka last week took his 2022 total to eight, his best top division return at 33. His partnership with Tete Yengi is producing plenty, the on-loan Ipswich forward has six goals in his 14 appearances and his highlight reels are proving very popular in Suffolk. But a porous defence undoes most of that hard work, conceding 24 goals so far this year. On their return to the top flight, they’ve certainly been far more open and expansive than previous seasons when they’ve been mundane at best. The Veikkausliiga top scorers are ninth in the table for a reason.
This game does have goals written all over it. Honka need to keep the pressure on HJK with only two guaranteed European places for league finishes and if they can out-score their opponents, they should do exactly that.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
HJK v IFK Mariehamn
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Saturday 30th July – 3:00PM KO
A swift rematch after a surprise 2-1 win for Mariehamn five weeks ago. HJK’s form had been on the up until a chastening 5-0 defeat to Viktoria Plzen in the Champions League, decent league wins against Ilves and VPS have kept the champions on the tail of the leaders KuPS. How their European embarrassment affects them will shape their season, they still have the Europa League to fall back on. Coach Toni Koskela has been under an element of pressure from the supporters after some insipid tactics, before taking off their in-form striker Bojan Radulovic for defender Paulus Arajuuri on Tuesday night. If it has motivated Bojan, it was a great choice.
Mariehamn have only ever won a league game once at HJK, with that being a European play-off after extra time in 2019. The side scored once from 34 shots against HIFK recently (and that was a penalty) and they lost 3-1 to Oulu last week despite taking the lead. Striker John Owoeri had been in decent nick with four in six matches but he is suspended for this fixture after being sent off for two yellow cards. A big loss. The Islanders haven’t made any signings in this transfer window and are still in severe danger.
HJK are likely to win this but they’ll need to find some rhythm. There is an outside chance the experienced forward Riku Riski might feature after coming through an academy game last week with a goal but they’ll need more support and resilience.
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Prediction: HJK to Win, 1.25 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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