Benfica v Arouca

Prior to 2020, Benfica had not finished third in the league since the 2008/09 campaign under Quique Sánchez Flores – they would win their first league title in five years under new manager Jorge Jesus the following year. Eager to repeat the formula of yesteryear, Benfica hired Jorge Jesus following a near-perfect year with Flamengo and provided him with a war chest that saw Benfica spend a record ​​€105 million in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, splurging heavily on Darwin Núñez, Everton Cebolinha, Luca Waldschmidt and more. However, they would be forced to sell defensive leader Rúben Dias following their loss to PAOK in the Champions League play-offs – Andrija Živković, who had been released from Benfica a week earlier, scored the decisive goal to seal a 2-1 win in Thessaloniki, a defeat that Benfica never quite recovered from, finishing third, losing to Arsenal in the Europa League round of 16, and finishing trophyless. The following year would see Jesus sacked midway through the season and replaced by interim manager Nélson Veríssimo, with Benfica once again finishing third, albeit this time, they defeated Barcelona and Ajax before crashing out of the Champions League quarterfinals at the hands of runner-ups Liverpool. Months later, Liverpool snapped up their top scorer Darwin Núñez for an initial fee of ​​€75 million plus ​​€25 million in add-ons.

In a way, this transfer may have been a blessing in disguise: it forced Benfica to get its business done early and work quickly to rebuild their squad around the desires of incoming manager Roger Schmidt. David Neres has joined from Shakhtar for a fee of €3 million, with Benfica choosing to wipe out the €12 million that Shakhtar had owed them for the signing of Pedrinho, whilst Mihailo Ristić, João Victor, Enzo Fernández, Alexander Bah and Petar Musa have also joined for a total fee of €50 million. The transfer haul from Darwin has also enabled them to focus on getting rid of aging players and wage bill encumbrances such as Pizzi, Haris Seferović and Éverton Cebolinha, keep hold of coveted players such as Morato and Gonçalo Ramos, the latter of whom scored a hat-trick on Tuesday to give Benfica a 4-1 victory in the first leg of their third qualifying match against FC Midtjylland, and tailor the squad around Schmidt’s desires and needs. It has paid off so far, with Benfica winning each of their five preseason matches and passing their first test in the Champions League, and they’ll be looking to kick off their league campaign with a victory against Arouca, who narrowly secured safety in their return to the top-flight last season thanks in large part to Brazilian striker André Silva, who scored 9 goals and 3 assists before joining Vitória de Guimarães. I’m backing Benfica to continue their dominant form with a victory against an Arouca side that could find it hard to replace Silva’s impact in front of goal last season.

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Rio Ave v Vizela

Founded in 1939, Vizela’s first appearance in the top-flight came in 1984/85 – they would finish bottom of the table with 15 points from 30 games and would not return until 36 years later under Alvaro Pacheco. Despite conceding the second-most goals (58) in the top-flight behind Tondela (67), they would narrowly avoid the drop, finishing two points above Arouca and four points above Moreirense in the relegation play-off spot to seal their top-flight status for 2022/23. 

The Portuguese league have toyed with the idea of a promotion / relegation playoff for decades and brought it back after a seven-year hiatus in 2020/21 with Rio Ave taking on Arouca. Just months ago, Rio Ave had lost to Milan in a Europa League qualifier that ended with a penalty shootout featuring 24 attempts. Having finished fifth in the league in back-to-back seasons, Rio Ave would finish 16th after a summer that saw them lose key players like Mehdi Taremi and Nuno Santos as well as manager Carlos Carvalhal – they would go on to lose 5-0 on aggregate across the two-legged playoff as Arouca sealed a return to the Primeira after four years. 

As opposed to 2006, the last time they had suffered relegation to the second tier, Rio Ave’s spell in the second division did not last for two years but one; under the management of 36-year-old manager Luís Freire, who had led Nacional to the promised land two years earlier, Rio Ave finished atop the table with 70 points whilst also advancing to the Taça de Portugal quarterfinals and beating two first division sides in the process.

Rio Ave have been busy preparing for their return to the top-flight, signing four players on free transfers and two on loan, whilst also purchasing Jhonathan and Aziz from Vitória de Guimarães after their loan spells expired. Vizela, meanwhile, have also completed two free transfers and signed Brazilian youngster Diego Rossi on loan from Manchester City, but their failure to replace Guilherme Schettine – who scored 8 of Vizela’s 37 goals following his loan arrival from Braga – could see their production in the final third dry up.

Whilst Rio Ave’s last three friendlies saw them draw 0-0 to Paços de Ferreira, lose 2-0 to Santa Clara and beat second-tier Viseu 1-0, Vizela lost four straight friendlies to Braga (3-2) and second-tier sides Torreense (3-1), Viseu (1-0) and Penafiel (2-0), as well as losing 3-2 to Gil Vicente, before beating Paços de Ferreira 2-1 and beating Famalicão 2-1. Both managers will be well aware of their teams’ struggles in attack and may choose a more conservative strategy in order to prevent goal-scoring opportunities, and between Vizela attempting to replicate Schettine’s production and Rio Ave incoming players attempting to gel in the club’s top-flight return, I’m backing both teams to struggle to find the back of the net in what should prove a nervy encounter in Vila do Conde.

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Estoril Praia v Famalicão

Whilst Arouca and Vizela both avoided the drop on the penultimate matchday of the season, the other promoted side – Estoril Praia – never fell into the relegation battle and finished 9th, level on points with Famalicão in 8th and one point behind Santa Clara. With the two promoted sides Farense and Nacional dropping out after one year in 2020/21, Estoril’s top-flight return was the finest display from any promoted side since Famalicão ended their 25-year absence and finished sixth, narrowly missing out on Europa League football to Rio Ave on the final day of the 2019/20 season. The following two years would see Famalicão sack their manager midway through the campaign before finishing ninth and eighth. Fama struggled for consistency last season, beating Estoril Praia on April 29 to end a two-month winless streak and all but seal their top-flight status, before beating Belenenses-SAD and Braga in the final two games. Estoril were reduced to 10 men within 16 minutes following Nahuel Ferraresi’s expulsion, with Famalicão opening the deadlock on the interval and holding on for a 3-1 victory. The previous match would see them draw 2-2 on December 17, the final match of Ivo Vieira’s tenure before being replaced by Rui Pedro Silva. 

Silva has enjoyed a fairly impressive run of form in charge of Fama: 7 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses, 27 goals scored and 22 conceded. He’ll be facing off against Nélson Veríssimo, who, following his interim spell at Benfica, has replaced Bruno Pinheiro as Estoril manager.

Both teams have struggled to impress in preseason with Famalicão losing 2-1 to Vizela and second-tier Trofense before losing 1-0 to Paços de Ferreira, whilst Estoril lost 4-1 and 3-1 to Premier League sides Brighton and Fulham before losing 2-1 to second-tier Vilafranquense, beating second-tier Mafra 1-0 and losing 2-1 to Portimonense. Their defensive woes could cause a difficult autumn for both teams, and it may just make for another heavy goal-scoring affair in Cascais.

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Porto v Marítimo

It has been a whirlwind first half of 2022 for FC Porto. Despite being forced to sell Colombian talisman Luís Diaz to Liverpool in January following a summer that saw them make no major sales combined with their failure to reach the Champions League knockout round, Porto would claim their second domestic double in two years under Sérgio Conceição, as well as tying the AC Milan side of Arrigo Sacchi and Fabio Capello who reached 58 straight league matches unbeaten from 1991 to 1993. Whilst Porto would fail to take sole control of the unbeaten record after losing to Braga, they would nevertheless secure a Portuguese record of 91 points: 29 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss.

The following weeks would see Porto sell homegrown midfield pairing Vitinha and Fábio Vieira to Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal, as well as the manager’s son Francisco to Ajax, whilst also losing Chancel Mbemba on a free transfer to Marseille. Whilst Porto have replaced Mbemba with Braga’s defensive prodigy David Carmo and brought in Gabriel Verón from Palmeiras to replace ‘Chico’ Conceição, the departures of Vieira and Vitinha could leave Porto shorthanded in terms of their ability to break down deep blocks. Fortunately for them, Vasco Seabra’s Marítimo is anything but a deep block.

Since the November appointment of Seabra, Marítimo have gone from fighting relegation to finishing 10th whilst impressing with an attack-minded, possession-based style. They have struggled against bigger sides such as Benfica (lost 7-1 on December 19 and 0-1 on April 30) and Porto (lost 2-1 on January 30), but they have nevertheless impressed in preseason, winning three friendlies against Leixões, Santa Clara and Nacional and drawing to Penafiel. Porto, meanwhile, have beaten Portimonense 1-0, Arouca 5-1 and Monaco 2-1, and kicked off their campaign by beating second-tier Tondela 3-0 in the Supertaça via a brace from Mehdi Taremi and a goal from Evanilson.

Marítimo have not kept a clean sheet against Porto in 17 games, and even though Evanilson is questionable to start after picking up an injury, I think Porto will have ample firepower to sink Seabra’s battleship. There are few scarier sights for Portuguese teams than an in-form Mehdi Taremi, and whether he’s starting alongside Danny Namaso Loader, Toni Martínez or Evanilson, I’m backing him to get back onto the scoresheet as Porto prepares for another title challenge.

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