Vizela v Famalicão
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Friday 18th March – 8:15PM KO
With eight matches remaining in the 2021/22 Primeira Liga season, it seems more and more likely that the relegation fight will come down to four teams: Belenenses-SAD (17 points), Moreirense (20), Tondela (21) and newly promoted Arouca (22). Two teams that are hovering above the relegation zone are 14th-placed Vizela (25) and Famalicão, level on points with Boavista at 27, and they’ll be taking on each other on Friday night at the Estádio do Vizela.
Vizela are playing in the top-flight for the second time in their 83-year history, the last of which saw them finish bottom of the table with 15 points from 30 games in the 1984/95 Primeira Divisão campaign, and they achieved a historic result last Friday when they faced off against Benfica at the Estádio da Luz.
Benfica were reduced to 10 men within seven minutes as Adel Taarabt received his marching orders for smacking Colombian winger Andrés Sarmiento in the eye whilst trying to chase down a loose ball. Vizela took the lead in the second half when Ivorian right back Koffi Kouao teed up Brazilian striker Cassiano with a superb cross to tap home from close range. Benfica equalized 10 minutes later as Vizela goalkeeper Pedro Silva failed to deal with a shot from Gonçalo Ramos and allowed fellow Seixal-made striker Henrique Araújo to convert from close range. They were unable to find a second in the final quarter-hour as Kiki Afonso cleared a shot from Rafa Silva off the line, whilst Pedro Silva redeemed himself following that error to put in the performance of a lifetime at home to secure a 1-1 draw.
After losing their past five encounters with the Eagles, Vizela have taken points off Benfica for the first time in club history. They are without center back Bruno Wilson and will be expected to sit back and hit on the counter against Famalicão; with the likes of Cassiano and Kiko Bondoso thriving up top, Vizela have everything it takes to get another strong result vs. Fama after drawing 1-1 in their previous encounter. Expect Ivorian defender Mohamed Aidara slot in for Wilson and expect another competitive performance from Vizela against Famalicão, who followed up a 2-1 defeat to Vitória de Guimarães with a 0-0 home draw to Santa Clara.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.95 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Tondela v Arouca
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Saturday 19th March – 3:30PM KO
If there’s any defining characteristic from matchday 26 of the Primeira Liga campaign, it would be the low-scoring results. Only one game saw more than two goals – Porto vs. Tondela – whilst only two other fixtures (Sporting vs. Moreirense and Estoril vs Portimonense) saw more than one goal scored in the entire 90 minutes.
Tondela paid a visit to league leaders Porto on Sunday and after a fairly balanced first half, they went into the break with a 1-0 deficit as Mehdi Taremi converted from the spot following a dubious penalty call. They found themselves reduced to 10 men in the 67th minute as Manu Hernando lunged in on Wendell and received a second yellow, and in the following 12 minutes, they would concede goals from substitutes Wenderson Galeno, Fábio Vieira and Francisco Conceição in a 4-0 defeat. The loss puts Pako Ayestarán’s side in 16th place – the relegation play-off spot – and one point behind Arouca.
Despite having 60% possession and 16 shots to their opponents’ 11, Arouca lost 1-0 to Paços de Ferreira as Nicolás Gaitán did superbly to beat Victor Braga with a deflected shot in the left corner of the net. The last time the two sides met, Arouca came out victorious as goals from João Basso and André Bukia gave Armando Evangelista’s side a 2-0 win. Arouca will be without Brazilian left back Matheus Quaresma, a big loss for them both in defense as well as attack, and that should take a toll on their ability to stretch Tondela’s defense. I’m expecting a fairly cagey affair between two sides who’ll be absolutely desperate to not lose points in this relegation six-pointer.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.75 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Santa Clara v Belenenses-SAD
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Saturday 19th March – 6:00PM KO
For the first time in a while, it seems there might just be some life in Filipe Cândido’s Belenenses-SAD. After opening the month with a 1-1 draw against Arouca, B-SAD picked up a 0-0 draw against former manager Petit in a balanced affair that saw B-SAD register 48% possession and 9 shots compared to Boavista 15 as well as 2 shots on goal to Boavista’s 1.
Cast your mind back to the opening months of the season, and Santa Clara were widely expected to join B-SAD in the upcoming relegation battle. The Azorean club went through four different managers and looked set for trouble following the departures of Fabio Cardoso and Carlos Junior, but since the turn of the year, they’ve been able to pick up wins against Sporting, Boavista, Moreirense and Vizela as well as draws against Braga, Gil Vicente, Portimonense and Tondela. Mário Silva, 44, has been in charge since January 10 and has led them to a comfortable 10th place in the league, level with Paços de Ferreira on 30 points.
Santa Clara boast one of the league’s most balanced mid-table sides: goalkeeper Marco Pereira, Mikel Villanueva, Kennedy Boateng, Mansur and Rafael Ramos form a reliable defensive spine, whilst Hidemasa Morita, Cryzan and Lincoln being capable of wreaking havoc with their pinpoint passing and lethal ability from set-pieces and open play. The last fixture between these two sides saw Belenenses-SAD take a 2-1 victory thanks to a 93rd minute goal from Pedro Nuno after Allano had equalized from the spot minutes earlier, but I think the Azoreans should have enough to get the victory against B-SAD.
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Prediction: Santa Clara to Win, 1.60 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Vitória v Sporting
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Saturday 19th March – 8:30PM KO
Sporting ended a 19-year title drought under Rúben Amorim in 2021, but within the first weeks of the following year, they looked to be teetering on the brink of a collapse in their title challenge following defeats to Santa Clara and Braga. Desperate for an addition to their attacking arsenal, Sporting signed Islam Slimani on a free transfer and Marcus Edwards for €7.67 million from Vitória de Guimarães, whilst also sending them Mozambican youngster Geny Catamo on loan and Brazilian veteran Bruno Gaspar on free transfer in return.
Vitória have picked up back-to-back victories for the first time since December with Pepa’s side narrowly defeating Marítimo 1-0 following a 2-1 victory against Famalicão. They took the lead in Madeira in the 82nd minute when Catamo combined with Nicolas Janvier for a delightful one-two, with Janvier firing a rocket of a shot past Paulo Víctor and into the back of the net.
Sporting, meanwhile, were able to secure a 2-0 win at relegation battlers Moreirense thanks to first-half goals from Slimani and Paulinho and maintain their six-point deficit on league leaders Porto. Edwards, starting in place of the injured Pedro Gonçalves, was a constant threat throughout the early stages and teed up Slimani with the opening goal with a pinpoint cross from the left flank. His connection with Pedro Porro on the right flank was a constant nuisance for Moreirense and after deftly flicking a pass to Porro, the ex Girona man rolled the ball past Pablo before firing an inch-perfect cross to Paulinho.
Amorim’s side have won their past two fixtures with a 1-0 scoreline thanks to goals from center backs Sebastián Coates and Gonçalo Inácio, and even with Zouhair Feddal suspended, they should have enough to overpower a hot-and-cold Vitória side that have one of the leakiest backlines in the Primeira.
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Prediction: Sporting to Win, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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