Fulham have been particularly reliable against Brighton at Craven Cottage in the Premier League. The Cottagers are unbeaten in all five of their home league meetings with the Seagulls (W4 D1), a strong record that contrasts sharply with their Championship struggles against the same opponent.

That home dominance is reinforced by Brighton’s wider difficulties in London, having won just two of their last 18 Premier League away games against sides from the capital.

Recent form also favours the hosts. Fulham’s narrow 1-0 defeat at Leeds last time out ended a six-match unbeaten run, but it was more a blip than a collapse, as they have not gone two consecutive league games without scoring since May 2024. A return to Craven Cottage should suit Marco Silva’s side, who remain competitive and well organised at home.

Brighton, by contrast, arrive under pressure. They have won just one of their last nine Premier League matches, a run that has seen them slide from 5th down to mid table.

With Fulham’s strong home record in this fixture, Brighton’s poor away results in London and the visitors’ ongoing struggle to turn performances into victories, backing Fulham or Draw appeals.

Backing over 1.5 match goals looks an attractive option for Fulham’s meeting with Brighton at Craven Cottage.

Each of the last five head-to-head encounters has produced over 1.5 goals, with three of those matches even clearing the over 2.5 line.

Fulham’s attacking prowess at Craven Cottage further strengthens the case, with Marco Silva’s men scoring 19 goals at home, which is the 6th-highest in the league.

With Raul Jimenez leading the line and enjoying a productive campaign with eight goals and three assists, Fulham carry a clear goal threat, particularly when playing in front of their own fans.

Brighton also contribute goals on the road, regularly scoring 17 away goals so far. While their recent form has dipped, they have shown strong resilience when falling behind, avoiding defeat in a league-high eight Premier League games after conceding the first goal this season. That ability to respond often keeps matches alive and pushes games beyond a single-goal margin, as seen in their recent 1-1 draws against Manchester City and Bournemouth.

Diego Gomez has quietly become more involved in Brighton’s offensive phases, particularly when games open up, and space appears around the edge of the penalty area. He has recorded at least one shot in each of his last seven Premier League appearances. 

That run is especially encouraging for a player who often operates slightly deeper, as it shows he’s timing late arrivals into shooting positions rather than staying purely disciplined in midfield. 

Brighton’s recent form also plays into this market. During their difficult recent run, they have frequently found themselves chasing games. That scenario naturally increases shooting responsibility across the team, with midfielders like Gomez encouraged to step up and contribute attempts from range when clear chances are limited. 

His confidence to shoot has been evident, even against stronger opposition like Arsenal. Fulham are comfortable allowing shots from outside the box, preferring to protect central areas and defend crosses rather than aggressively stepping out to block long range efforts.

That approach can give midfielders space on the edge of the box, an area where Gomez often operates when Brighton build sustained pressure.

With his seven-game shooting streak, Brighton’s need for midfield contributions and Fulham’s defensive tendencies, Gomez registering two shots or more looks a shrewd bet.

Jimenez has been heavily involved in Fulham’s attacking play this season, often operating with his back to goal and inviting physical contact from opposition centre-backs. That style naturally leads to fouls being drawn, and the numbers reflect it. 

The Mexican striker has conceded two or more fouls in each of his last three Premier League appearances, showing how regularly defenders are forced to stop him illegally when he receives the ball in advanced areas. With Fulham likely to play through him again at Craven Cottage, he should see plenty of touches under pressure.

Brighton’s defensive personnel further strengthens this angle. Captain Lewis Dunk has committed five fouls across his last five league matches. Alongside him, Jan Paul van Hecke has committed at least one foul in four of his last five appearances. 

Facing a striker like Jiménez, who excels at drawing contact through intelligent movement and strength, increases the likelihood of one of those centre-backs stepping in late.

Tactically, this matchup also favours the bet. Brighton are comfortable stepping high and engaging duels, which can leave their defenders exposed if the first challenge is mistimed. Given Jimenez’s recent foul-winning consistency and Brighton’s centre-backs showing a willingness to commit fouls, backing him to win at least one looks a low-risk and well-supported selection.