No team has had more Premier League games with over 2.5 goals than Fulham, 16 of their 20 matches this season have had at least 3 goals. Spurs are 5th highest on this list and have the 2nd highest goals per game. 9 of Fulham’s home Premier League matches this season have had at least 2.5 goals and 5 of Spurs’ last 6 away games in all competitions have had over 2 goals.

All six of Fulham’s Premier League London derbies have had at least 3 goals and this run seems likely to continue in this match. Spurs have looked so open at the back this season and Lloris’ flurry of mistakes in recent games makes it seem a certainty that Fulham score here. However, Spurs have still been strong going forwards, they have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals looks like as close to a banker as you can get in this match.

Despite their great results this season, Fulham concede the second most shots on target of any team in the league this season. Fulham allow an average of 5.35 shots on target per 90, in their last 13 matches against Premier League opposition, Fulham have allowed at least 5 shots on target 10 times. In all 6 of Spurs’ matches against the top 5 this season they have conceded at least 5 shots on target and in the last match between the two, Spurs managed 10 shots on target. Spurs average 5.35 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League.

Spurs have had at least 5 shots on target in 7 of their last 9 matches and in 5 of their 6 away matches against teams not in the top 5 they have hit at least 5 shots on target. Spurs have to win to maintain any hopes of a top 4 finish this season and after two disappointing results against the top 2, they will want to return to winning ways in this match. I expect Spurs to push forward here and with Fulham’s poor defensive record, I expect Spurs to have at least 5 shots on target.

Fulham have received 49 yellow cards this season, the most of any team at an average of 2.45 yellow cards per match. Spurs have drawn the 5th most yellow cards per season of any team, drawing 43 yellow cards this season or 2.15 per game. Paul Tierney will referee this match and has handed out 57 yellow cards in 16 matches this season, an average of 3.56 a match.

Tierney has refereed one Fulham match so far this season, giving out 1 Fulham yellow card and in the only Spurs match he has refereed this season, Spurs’ opposition received 4 yellow cards. Tierney also refereed the match between the two when they met in 2021, he gave out 3 yellow cards including two to Fulham players. This is a London derby and the last 4 head to heads between the teams have seen Fulham carded 2 times or more every time. It is likely that there will be cards in this match and Fulham should pick up at least 2 cards in this match.

Mitrovic has averaged 1.44 shots on target per 90 this season and 4.33 shots per 90. When these two met earlier in the season Mitrovic was superb, he had 5 shots, 3 on target and scored. Mitrovic is a key part of what makes Fulham the goalscoring team they are and his aerial presence will be hugely important for Fulham in this match. Mitrovic is averaging 0.75 xG per 90 this season, this goes to show how good the chances he is getting are and why his shot on target numbers are so high.

Spurs often give shots on target away against opposition strikers. In matches against Spurs, Manchester City’s strikers combined for 3 shots on target, Nketiah managed 3 shots on target and Jordan Ayew had 3 shots on target. Spurs concede plenty of shots on target to opposition centre forwards so with the Premier League’s 4th highest goalscorer up against their defence, I expect Mitrovic to be able to get a couple of shots on target in this game.