Germany v Portugal

Germany and Portugal meet in the semi-final of the UEFA Nations League with the winner of this tie taking on either Spain or France, who contest their semi-final on Thursday.

Germany have been on an upward trajectory under the tutelage of Julian Nagelsmann, they remained unbeaten during the group stage of the competition and then saw off Italy over two legs in the quarter-final to reach this stage.

Portugal posted the exact same record as Germany during the group stages (W4, D2), but have faced more challenges under Roberto Martinez, who is yet to find the right formula for this talented Portugal side. They had to overturn a 1-0 defeat to Denmark in the first leg of the quarter-finals to reach this stage of the tournament.

⭐ Germany v Portugal Best Bet

Bruno Fernandes has been the subject of much transfer speculation in recent weeks, but he can focus on delivering for his country here, with the 30-year-old performing regularly for his nation at the highest level.

Fernandes has had 21 shots (2.87 per 90) and 10 shots on target (1.37 per 90) across his seven appearances in the Nations League this season. This record has returned two goals for the midfielder who regularly pushes on and plays in an advanced role for his nation, despite being asked to play in a deeper role for his club side under Ruben Amorim.

Fernandes averaged 0.86 shots on target per 90 across his 36 Premier League appearances during the regular season, an impressive total when considering that for large parts of the campaign, he was playing deeper in midfield.

Fernandes has performed on the international stage before; he registered 13 goal contributions and averaged 1.28 shots on target per 90 across his 10 appearances during Portugal’s European Championship qualifying campaign, which indicates that he is a key member of the side. Portugal are averaging 5.8 shots on target per game in the Nations League this season.

👕 Germany v Portugal Predicted XI

🔍 Germany v Portugal Players to Watch

🔴 Cristiano Ronaldo

Ronaldo’s continued selection in this Portugal squad has attracted widespread criticism. There is certainly a case for having the 40-year-old in the squad for his experience, but few expected him to still be leading the line for Roberto Martinez’s side at this age. He’s played regularly in the Nations League, scoring six goals across his seven appearances in the competition, making him the current top scorer in the Nations League. Ronaldo played 90 minutes in both legs of the quarter-final clash against Denmark and scored in the second leg to help Portugal reach this stage of the competition.

🔴 Vitinha

Vitinha is coming off the back of an excellent personal campaign for PSG in which he won the treble. He averaged 1.19 shots per 90 across his 29 appearances in Ligue 1 during the regular season and this average stays consistent when looking at his numbers in the Nations League this term (1.26 shots per 90). Vitinha usually gets his shot opportunities from the edge of the area, arriving late to take shots when Portugal have sustained pressure in the opposing half. 

📂 Germany v Portugal Cheat Sheet

We've been all over the Nations League semi-finals, with our expert Football Betting Predictions diving into all the action. Make sure to check out our Nations League Accumulator Tips so you don’t miss any of our coverage.

Be sure to check out our Bet Builder Stats tool too, the best freely available data source for punting on football, plus our collection of the best Free Bet Offers.

📊 Germany v Portugal Form and Tactics

Germany look really strong under Julian Nagelsmann, with them taking the Nations League as an opportunity to experiment with different personnel and systems. Jamal Musiala is usually an important part of this setup up, but as he is injured, expect some more tinkering from the former Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig manager.

Germany lined up in a 3-4-3 shape in their most recent Nations League outing against Italy. Joshua Kimmich’s versatility as a wing back was crucial in this game, with the 30-year-old picking up a goal and two assists, drifting inside from the right wing back position to create an overload in central areas.

Angelo Stiller is a player who is worth keeping an eye on for Germany in the middle of the park. He’s just had another excellent campaign for Stuttgart and is on the radar of Real Madrid. His composure in the middle of the park mirrors that of Vitinha, and he is someone that will meet the demands of the style of football that Nagelsmann likes to play.

The talent of this Portuguese side is undeniable and that alone should put them in a good position to go deep into the World Cup next year, but they will have to find something extra in the big games, something that’s been missing so far under Roberto Martinez and the Nations League can act as the perfect litmus test to see if they can go toe-to-toe with their European heavyweight rivals.

Portugal lined up in a 4-3-3 in their 5-2 win over Denmark in their most recent Nations League outing. They had 11 shots on target and generated an xG of 3.33, so the attacking quality of the side is undeniable. However, they let Denmark generate an xG of 1.9,8 which would suggest that their defence is still far from secure. 

It’s worth noting that Germany have won the last four head-to-head meetings against Portugal. These records aren’t as relevant in international football as they are in club football, as the meetings are quite far apar,t but Germany are also unbeaten since their European Championship defeat to Spain last summer, giving them the slight edge in this encounter.

🏁 Germany v Portugal Ref Watch

• Referee: Slavko Vincic

Stats are on a per 90 basis and are taken from 2024/25 games (17 total)

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

We recommend the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, Top Bet Builder Sites, and Weekly Free Bet Clubs, all to ensure you bet smarter when backing our tips with the Best UK Sports Betting Sites. There's a list of the best New Bookmaker Offers here.

Expert guides, such as this one, on xG In Football, are also available to help you up your punting game. To back the bets in this preview, it's worth taking advantage of this bet365 Sign Up Offer.

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.