The Championship returns after the international break as Luton Town travel to the MKM Stadium to face a Hull side who have lost four in a row. This has seen the home side fall to 20th, and some were surprised that manager Shota Arveladze was not sacked over the break. The Hatters however have continued their strong run of form from the last few seasons under Nathan Jones and they currently are two points outside the top six, with only one loss in their last six.
Hull were busy in the transfer window, and their owners signed many unknown quantities playing in the Championship for the first time. In the first few weeks, this gamble seemed to pay off as they picked up 11 points from their first six, but four losses in a row has transformed the mindset for the Tigers. One of their signings, Oscar Estupinan, started the season on fire with seven goals and an assist in these six games, but has no returns in the four since then. In fact, Hull have only scored once in their last four games – and haven’t scored in their last three. Estupinan remains top of the golden boot race in the Championship but last time out at Swansea, they looked like a team with no faith in the manager. Although two of the goals were from individual mistakes, the Swans could have won by many more than the 3-0 margin having hit the woodwork three times.
Luton started the season slowly, with just two points from their first four games. However, since then they have only lost one of their last six. Their last two away games have seen them travel to South Wales and they picked up six points across both games in Cardiff and Swansea. They have also managed to score in each of these six games and seen striker Carlton Morris score six in six. This has seen him tied second behind Estupinan in the golden boot race, and he will be hoping to find the same run of form that he had before the break.
Hull City v Luton Town Bet Builder Tips
Luton to Win
As mentioned earlier, these are two teams on massively contrasting runs of form. The home side have conceded 11 in four and have conceded the most in the division so far this season. The away side have scored 10 in six, including two in each of their last two games on the road. The home side seem to have lost confidence in the manager and their performance before the break at Swansea showed this, conceding 2.55 xG, only recording 0.22 xG for. In addition, they had five players travelling off for international break whilst Luton had the advantage that just three players left the club for the last few weeks.
Luton’s recent results have not been undeserved. They have won each of their last five games on xG and have recorded at least 1 xG for in eight of their ten games so far this season. They have conceded at least one xG in five of their games, however, Hull right now are a much weaker side than many of the teams Luton have played, and I think there is value in them to pick up another three points away from home. The Hatters have also scored at least two in four of their games and scored one in the other two. They will also take confidence from the fact that they’ve won each of their last three games against the Tigers, including two away wins in the last two seasons.
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Prediction: Luton to Win
James Bree to have 1+ Shot
James Bree is a right wing back that has become a regular in this Luton starting lineup. Given their 3 at the back formation, he is allowed plenty of opportunities to bomb forward for the Hatters. He has managed eight shots in their ten games so far this season, with at least one in seven of those.
He managed two away to Hull last season and even managed to score there so will have happy memories of playing at the MKM Stadium. Bree should also be nailed on for minutes given he has played 90 in each of the 10 so far this season.
Hull have played six teams that have deployed a three at the back formation so far this season. The players that have played there have managed six shots in these games and last time out, Matty Sorinola managed two from right wing back, and I think Bree should manage to at least get one opportunity to take a shot, especially given Hull’s recent defensive frailties.
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Prediction: James Bree to have 1+ Shot
Under 3.5 Cards
Both teams rank among the lowest number of cards received so far this season. In fact, Luton are currently lowest with only 11 yellows and no red cards in their ten games so far. Hull have amassed 20 yellow cards so far this season but no red cards. This line has landed in four of Hull’s five home games this season and in three of Luton’s four away games. Overall, both teams have had 4 or more cards in a game just seven times in their 20 matches so far this season.
The referee for this game is James Linington. In his 69 games as a ref, he has had over 3.5 cards in just 21.9% of games and in three of his five games so far this season. Given both teams’ (and especially Luton’s) fairly low averages, the under seems the right way to go here with Linington not being prolific with his cards historically.
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Prediction: Under 3.5 Cards
Carlton Morris to Score or be Shown a Card
Carlton Morris’ form has been very good in the last six, scoring in five and a total of six. He will have been disappointed that the international break had to come. Given Hull’s defensive instability, he will fancy himself to score again here. In addition, in six of Hull’s last seven games, the top scorer for that club has managed to score. The only exception to this is Iliman Ndiaye of Sheffield United, where both other main attackers, McBurnie and Berge, managed to get on the scoresheet. Morris should be given plenty of chances.
However, Morris does have an eye for a card as well. Luton’s disciplinary record has been very good, but the striker has picked up over a quarter of their cards with three in total. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last seven, and 13 in total across this time. The English striker has been booked twice in the last three games. Three strikers – Tyler Roberts, Rhian Brewster and Liam Delap – have been booked against the Tigers so far this season, and given Morris’ disciplinary record, there is a good chance he could add his name to this list.
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Prediction: Carlton Morris to Score or be Shown a Card
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Predicted Line-ups
Hull City predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Baxter; Coyle, Jones, Greaves, Elder; Woods, Slater; Vale, Tufan, Pelkas; Estupinan
Luton Town predicted XI (3-5-2): Horvath; Burke, Lockyer, Potts; Bree, Lansbury, Clark, Doughty; Campbell; Woodrow, Morris
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Hull City v Luton Town in the Championship?
📅 When is Hull City v Luton Town? / Friday, 30th September 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Hull City v Luton Town? / MKM Stadium (Hull)
📺 What TV channel is Hull City v Luton Town on? / Sky Sports Main Event
🟨 …And who is the referee for Hull City v Luton Town? / J. Linington 🏴
