Hull picked up their third win on the road last time out as they came away 2-1 winners over Stoke, marking the fourth occasion across their last five matches where they’ve seen BTTS. Their nine home matches in the Championship have produced an extraordinary 29 goals (15 scored, 14 conceded - 3.22 per game).

Hull have seen BTTS in six of these home matches, offering promise for the visit of Middlesbrough, who sit second in the Championship - 10 points behind league leaders Coventry. Boro have seen 21 goals across their nine away matches this season (2.33 per game), impressively managing to avoid defeat in seven of these games.

The away side have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including Kim Hellberg’s first two games in charge of the side as they ran out 2-1 winners over Derby last time out, after falling to a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Frank Lampard’s electric Coventry side. 

There is nothing outstanding in the data for this bet until you look at what happens when Middlesbrough travel away from home.

Middlesbrough away matches seem to equal big yellow card numbers. Boro themselves are averaging 2.67 yellow cards per match away from home, but their opponents also average 2.44 cautions per match. Overall, this has meant that matches in which Middlesbrough are the visitors are averaging over five yellow cards.

This is obviously way above the line chosen here; indeed, Middlesbrough’s average alone takes us over the line. In fact, every Middlesbrough away game so far this season has beaten this line.

There isn’t quite the same rate for Hull home matches, but even so, the average for yellow cards is 3.89, and the last five matches played at the MKM have all gone over this line for cards.

Gelhardt is finally showing that he is a top Championship player at senior level this season. He has been a firm starter since the start of the season, and he has become a reliable goalscorer and a high-volume shot taker.

Gelhardt is averaging exactly three shots per 90 so far this season, and he is a lock to play the full 90 at the moment, especially with Oli McBurnie still missing from the starting XI. This absence has probably actually helped Gelhardt’s shot numbers, as he is now the main man when it comes to goal threat.

We have backed the shots on target line here, though, rather than shot volume. Gelhardt is actually ranked #1 in the league for his volume of shots on target. He is averaging 1.57 shots on target per 90, which includes at least one shot on target in eight of his last nine matches.

Indeed, Gelhardt has hit multiple shots on target in five of those nine matches, including two in each of his last two.

His average goes up to 1.77 shots on target per 90 when playing at home, and seven of his nine matches at home have seen him hit the target at least once.

Targett scored a thumping header to get the equaliser in Kim Hellberg’s first match in charge against Derby last Saturday, and that was one of four attempts in the match by the Newcastle loanee.

That was the second time in two starts that Targett has hit four shots, and what is quite compelling about that is that Targett played two different positions in those matches. He hit four shots against Oxford as a left-back, and then had to play left centre-back against Derby, but still shot four times.

Hellberg had to use Targett as an auxiliary centre-back due to injury last time out, but this did give Targett licence to be a target from set pieces, and he certainly made the most of it with his goal. One would expect that Hellberg and his team might build that into their plans from set pieces here, and Targett may get on the end of one again.

This bet isn’t dependent on Targett playing in central defence, though. He has had at least one shot in eight of his thirteen starts for the club this season, albeit he has been more shot-happy in recent weeks.