Lucas Perri has had to battle with injuries this season, meaning that he’s only started nine games in the Premier League. He’s been forced into making 21 saves across these matches (2.33 per 90) and can be regularly tested here by a Liverpool side that average 4.20 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Liverpool drew four saves from Robin Roefs in their 1-1 draw with Sunderland during the week, with that performance earning the Sunderland keeper man of the match. The Reds also drew three saves from Alphonse Areola in their 2-0 win over West Ham, meaning that Liverpool have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in both of their matches since the international break.

The Leeds keeper has been forced into making 2+ saves in eight of their 14 Premier League matches this season. Karl Darlow has had to step in for some of these games, who isn’t as good a shot stopper as Perri, so it’s possible that we see a rise in the average of 2.36 saves per game the Leeds keeper is having to make. 

Liverpool have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in 10 of their 14 Premier League matches this season. Despite the issues that the Reds have faced at the back this term, their quality in the final third is undeniable, and there are small signs that this is starting to click for Arne Slot.

This is quite a low line for cards in what is set to be a hostile atmosphere, following Leeds’ triumph at Elland Road over Chelsea last time out. That game only produced two match cards, but saw 23 fouls - suggesting that we should get another physical contest here.

Leeds are seeing an average of 3.28 match cards per game in the Premier League this season, with this average rising to 3.85 match cards per game when looking at their matches at Elland Road this season.

There’s quite a lot of room for Liverpool to grow frustrated here, as Chelsea did in their midweek trip to Elland Road, committing 13 fouls. The Reds are seeing 3.71 match cards per game across their 14 matches in the Premier League this season, with Liverpool picking up 16 of their 26 cautions this season on the road (61%).

Gravenberch is Liverpool’s most important player in my opinion, the difference in the side when he doesn’t play is stark, with the Dutchman having a unique ability to handle the opposition press, and spark attacks for his side. He hasn’t been Liverpool’s best player this term, with that tag being saved for Dominik Szoboszlai, but he’s near impossible to replace.

He’s won 15 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances this season (1.28 per 90) and will face a combative midfield trio for Leeds. His main opponent is likely to be Tanaka, who is averaging 1.03 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season, as well as Ethan Ampadu, who is one of Leeds’ most serial foulers - averaging 1.53 fouls committed per 90.

Gravenberch has won a foul in four of his last five Premier League matches, highlighting that it is quite a strong part of his game. He’s won multiple fouls in two of these games, so higher lines are worth exploring. Leeds committed 10 fouls against Chelsea last time out, with three of these coming from their midfield.

Daniel Farke appears to have stumbled on a system that could be really effective for Leeds, with the newly promoted side lining up in a 3-5-2 in recent matches. 

This change of shape has seen them score twice against Manchester City, and three times against Chelsea - so we can assume that they’ll carry quite a significant attacking threat against the slumped Champions here.

Nmecha found the target in both of Leeds’ clashes against Chelsea and City, netting against Guardiola’s side. He could have had two goals in that game at the Etihad, but missed a penalty which could have earned Leeds a point. His role on penalties also benefits this selection.

Leeds playing with two strikers means that they can be more direct. Calvert-Lewin looks to be the player who has been assigned the role of winning the aerial duels, with Nmecha boasting an instinctive nature in the box. Nmecha has had 14 shots across his five starts in the Premier League (2.55 per 90) with eight of these attempts finding the target (1.46 per 90).

Szoboszlai has quite easily been Liverpool’s best player this season. He’s the only one who has remained consistent throughout a period of turmoil for the Reds, and has filled in all over the park - he’s expected to line up in midfield or slightly to the left of Florian Wirtz, should Slot keep Salah out of the starting lineup.

Szoboszlai has always been a hard worker, but was criticised for some of his final product, which was actually what prompted Liverpool to sign Florian Wirtz. Szoboszlai has had 27 shots across his 14 Premier League appearances this season (1.93 per 90) with 10 of these attempts finding the target (0.71 per 90).

He likes to take aim from distance, with 20 of his efforts coming from outside of the box (74%). This is also where eight of his 10 shots on target have come from - so it may be worth exploring markets for shots and shots on target from outside the box with Leeds set to sit deep at times here, and Szoboszlai’s role on free kicks for Liverpool.

Jayden Bogle is set to line up as a wingback here in a 3-5-2 shape for Leeds, meaning that he will have little protection up against the duo of Cody Gakpo and Milos Kerkez down his side.

Gakpo in particular is a very strong player at winning fouls, having drawn 20 across his 14 Premier League appearances this season (1.71 per 90). Kerkez also likes to get forward to support the winger, winning 10 fouls in the process (1.05 per 90).

Bogle is one of the more combative players in the Leeds side and has committed 15 fouls across his 14 Premier League appearances this season (1.10 per 90). We can see this tally rise here when looking at Bogle’s potential opponents, as well as the fact that he’s picked up three yellow cards in the Premier League this season.

Look to German international Anton Stach to go in Anthony Taylor's book on Saturday evening.

Stach was booked last time out in Leeds' surprise home win against Chelsea, but odds of 4.0 look too good to pass up. Stach ranks third-highest in the Leeds squad for fouls per 90 this season in the Premier League (1.68), and has been a consistent fouler across each game. In fact, Stach has only failed to commit a foul in two of the 12 league games he has featured in this season.

Stach is likely to be up against Alexis Mac Allister in a midfield battle this Saturday evening, with the Argentine international averaging 1.31 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season. Daniel Farke's tactical switch to a more industrious 3-5-2 will rely on overloading the midfield and having his midfield three work off the ball. It wouldn't be a shock to see Leeds' foul count rise throughout the season due to this switch.

Referee Anthony Taylor is also averaging over three bookings per game in the league this season (3.43).