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Hull v Portsmouth Bet Builder Tips & Match Predictions

Hull v Portsmouth Bet Builder Tips & Match Predictions

Thursday 6 November, 20252 min read
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The Perceptive Football Punter

Football analyst, betting writer, and educator. Wealth of experience studying football markets and identifying value opportunities through a data-heavy approach. As a true specialist in player markets, I use that knowledge and theory to educate others on how to spot shrewd angles in the market.

Hull take on Portsmouth at the MKM Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and the hosts will be looking for a vital win to bolster their play-off claims after falling to defeat against Derby in midweek. The visitors are struggling at present; they’ve endured a poor run, which has seen them pick up just one win in the last ten games. A win could create some crucial daylight between them and the drop zone. 

It’s been a turbulent period for Hull over the last couple of years, after the extremely unfortunate sacking of Liam Rosenior at the end of the 2023/24 season, two more managers have come and gone. However, under the stewardship of Sergej Jakirovic, things are beginning to look brighter.

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Hull v Portsmouth Best Bets
  • Hull v Portsmouth
  • Championship
  • 12:30
2 Selections @ 1.84

Over 0.5 Portsmouth Goals

Hull have been on a favourable run of results until the defeat against Derby in midweek, but the recent data suggests Hull have been getting somewhat fortunate. Hull currently ranks 24th in the league for xGA over the last eleven games, averaging 2.04 xGA per game. This is quite a big sample size, illuminating the fact that opposition have been pretty wasteful in front of goal. 

With these types of averages, I’m always going to take a calculated punt on the opposition scoring a goal. Hull have only kept three clean sheets all season, and the xG data implies they were very fortunate to keep a clean sheet in all those matches. 

Admittedly, Portsmouth aren’t posting particularly good creation or goalscoring metrics, but they have still mustered a goal in ten out of their fourteen league games, failing to score in away games just twice this season. The performance against Wrexham in midweek will provide some hope, despite a 0-0 draw, they were the better side and probably should have got on the scoresheet.

Over 4.5 Hull Corners

While Hull are not posting huge corner averages in home games, going at just an average of 4.14, the interesting data point pertains to Portsmouth. The visitors have conceded 45 corners in just six away games, which works out at an average of 7.5 corners. Portsmouth only conceded fewer than five corners on one occasion against West Brom. 

Portsmouth often soak up long spells of pressure in away matches this season, and this is leaving them susceptible to conceding corners. Portsmouth are also conceding a hefty amount of shots in away matches, an average of 15.33. This is another metric that shows the visitors are having to withstand pressure and concede territory. 

Game state is obviously important for corner bets, and the variable of Portsmouth scoring a goal should complement the hypothesis of Hull getting a decent number of corners, especially if they are chasing the game or looking for a winner in the second half.

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📈 Hull v Portsmouth Form & Stats

Hull currently find themselves in 8th position, just one point off the play-offs. Their season record is six wins, four draws, and four defeats. There is perhaps a feeling that Hull are occupying a slightly deceiving position in the league; their underlying data across the season has seen a big overperformance on xGF and xGA. Those numbers have remained pretty poor despite a favourable run of results since the start of October. 

After finishing 16th last season, but only avoiding relegation by five points, Portsmouth will be hoping to escape the drop again this season. Despite a promising start to the season where they weren’t losing many games, it’s turning into a painful run of results, which has seen them pick up just one win in their last ten games, that’s included defeats in three out of their last four matches. 

Portsmouth are posting underlying numbers that are slightly better than their league position suggests, currently sitting on 2.6 xPTS less than their current points tally. Portsmouth sit 17th in the xG table, three places above their actual position.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, including EFL Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

For Saturday's football, we have an EFL Accumulator, as well as betting previews for specific games, including Millwall v Preston and Blackburn v Derby, if player prop bets are more your thing.

For goals bet tips, we also have a Both Teams to Score Tips, Over 2.5 Goals Tips, Score or Assist Tips, Shots Tips, and Fouls Predictions.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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