The Eagles are set to take on the Jaguars who have the worst pass defense according to DVOA. They are a defense we’ve frequently looked to target in the prop department, but they struggle through the air even more than they do on the ground.

They have allowed the second-most explosive plays and rank bottom of the barrel in every deep ball metric possible. AJ Brown has been banged up, but when he’s healthy he absolutely crushed this season.

6-84-0 vs Bengals
5-89-1 vs Giants
6-119-1 vs Browns
10-116-1 vs Packers

The Jaguars play the most man coverage in the NFL and they have really struggled against deep ball receivers. AJ Brown is quite literally the best receiver in the NFL against man coverage, leading all receivers in first-read target share and yards per route run. The only team he’s faced that plays comparable rates of man coverage was the Browns, where he was targeted 9 times for 119 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars have a solid rush and an awful pass defense, so teams normally take the path of least resistance and attack them there. Brown is in-store for a huge game and we love backing his alt line.

Over the past couple years there haven’t been many better bets than Jalen Hurts in the red zone. Even though there’re skill position players like AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, a lot of there offense still centers around establishing the run and making teams respect both Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground. This opens up all kinds of one on one opportunities for the bigger players to get mismatches 1 v 1, or opens up easy running lanes for Hurts to take advantage of.

The tush push is obviously the most famous way Hurts has scored a lot of these touchdowns over the years, and while they still do it sometimes, there is plenty of other designed RPO’s in the Kellen Moore offense that we saw a bit earlier in the year. The Eagles are 7-point favorites in this game and should dominate time of possession against a very injured Jaguars offense that just traded their best offensive lineman. We’re expecting plenty of red zone opportunities and Hurts should be able to use his legs and take advantage.