On paper this is a very easy win for the Jaguars. They’re leading the AFC South with 12 wins, nine more than the Titans and they’re riding a seven game winning streak. Not only that, but they beat this Titans outfit 25-3 just five weeks ago.

The Jags do have the talent to blow them away if everything clicks, so I’m going conservative and just taking Jacksonville on the moneyline. This Jags offense is really popping in recent weeks as Liam Coen has worked his magic, and the defense has hugely upgraded itself from last year, and they now rank seventh in DVOA.

This looks like a line that we have to attack. 16.5 points feels really low for a Titans team who look to have really figured things out over the past month. Since the Titans last played, and lost, to the Jags, they’ve had four games, winning two and looking better on both sides of the ball.

They’ve scored an average of 26.75 points per game in that time span, in stark contrast to their season average of 17.3. Having a rookie quarterback and rookie wideouts meant it was always going to take time, but it looks like things have started to change, so we’re taking them to go Over their total here.

When it comes to who will find the endzone for the Jaguars, there’s only one-man worth considering, and that’s Travis Etienne. The running back has scored 13 times this season, but what really stands out is that his 13 touchdowns are a near-perfect split between rushing and receiving TDs, which really highlights his threat all across the field.

He’s hitting form at the right time, with six touchdowns in the past month as the Jaguars surge into the playoffs. The Titans have given up 18 touchdowns to opposing running backs in 16 games this season and Etienne can be the beneficiary on Sunday.

This has been a redemption season for Trevor Lawrence, and under Liam Coen’s coaching, he’s finally looking like the generational talent that he was lauded as when he was drafted back in 2021. As the season has progressed, he’s looked better and better, cutting down on the number of mistakes he makes, while offering even more of the magic moments he’s capable of.

He’s averaged 234.5 passing yards per game this season, but that’s risen over the second half of the season, and he’s broken the 242 yard mark in five of his six previous games. I think he'll manage at least 247 passing yards here.