The Patriots come into this as 10.5-point favourites, but I’m not tackling that spread. It’s one of those that they really should cover, but double digits in the final game week are always scary, with teams often looking to finish in style. However, I’m absolutely certain the Patriots win, given they know that a victory would seal them the first-round bye if the Broncos were to lose against the Chargers.

When these teams met in Week Two, it was close with the Patriots winning 33-27, but there is a big gulf in quality between the teams. The Pats’ defense actually ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in DVOA, two spots below the Dolphins, and I don’t know if they’ll be able to do enough to keep the Dolphins at a 10.5 point gap, but I am confident in their ability to get the win.

The Patriots' offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and they seem capable of putting up big numbers at will. We have to back that to continue, especially when they’ve broken 30 points in three of their past four games and look so dominant in the trenches.

Across the whole season, they’ve averaged 28.3 points per game, the fifth most in the league, and face a Dolphins team low on confidence, when they themselves have something at stake. The offense will do their bit and put up 30+ points.

The Patriots' backfield scares me. TreVeyon Henderson is so clearly the best running back on the team, but they do still show Rhamondre Stevenson some love. Last week, Henderson carried the ball 19 times for 82 yards and looked electric against the Jets, but it was Stevenson who scored the touchdown.

I don’t believe that keeps happening. Henderson has too much pop and energy; he’s the best playmaker on the team, and the data backs that up. Since Stevenson’s return from injury in Week 12, we’ve seen Henderson have more carries in the red zone, with 12 to Stevenson’s 13, as well as having the same amount of targets.

We’ve seen rookie Quinn Ewers start twice now for the Dolphins, and they’ve been very different games. First time out, he threw for 260 yards in the loss to the Bengals, who only managed 172 yards in the win over the Bucs last week, so we really need to consider the game script of this one.

The Patriots are favourites and big ones at that, so we’re likely seeing the Dolphins play from behind, which should mean the former Texas man throwing the ball a lot. The Patriots' defense are allowing 198.3 passing yards per game, but with the Dolphins chasing the team and Mike McDaniel coordinating, we should see Ewers given plenty of opportunity to pass.