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Juventus v Torino Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Juventus v Torino Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 7 November, 20254 min read
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The Turin derby is traditionally one-sided, with Juventus having by far the lion’s share of the victories when the city rivals meet.

With Igor Tudor gone and already replaced by Luciano Spalletti, the Bianconeri will be expecting their fortunes to improve, and where better to kick that off than at home to the neighbours that they have such historical dominance over.

Our Football Match Stats, including Juventus v Torino, provide further insight.

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Juventus v Torino Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Juventus v Torino
  • Serie A
  • 17:00
4 Selections @ 4.06

Juventus to Win

Before the sacking of Tudor, Juventus wouldn't have been quite this price to get past Torino, but even so, it is clear that Juventus are the better team going into this match. They have a big points differential over Torino, and they are ranked higher in attacking metrics as well as defensive ones.

Juventus seem to have finally made their new-ish stadium their home now. They are unbeaten at home so far this season, though there are probably too many draws for Juventus’ sake, but they should have a degree of confidence coming into this. Let alone that they consistently beat Torino in the derby as well.

In the last 15 playings of this fixture with Juventus at home, the record stands at 12 wins and three draws to Juve. Torino's manager has never beaten Juventus away, with two draws and five defeats.

There is also the impact of Luciano Spalletti to consider. A new manager bounce is often mythical, but it can definitely happen. With the clear quality advantage here, I like Juventus’ chances to convert into three points.

Over 4.5 Juventus Corners

This seems like a low corner line for the home team.

Juventus are averaging “only’ 5.36 corners in all matches in all competitions this season. When we change that sample to be more relevant, only including Serie A games where Juventus are the home team, that number jumps massively to 7.8 corners per match. This makes the prices on offer look generous to my eye.

Juve have beaten this line in every home match in Serie A so far this season. This includes matches against Inter (5 corners), AC Milan (6), and Atalanta (14).

Torino concede an average of 4.5 corners away from home in Serie A so far this season, conceding seven to Roma and eight to Inter.

Lois Openda to have 3+ Shots

Openda looks to be someone who Spalletti fancies for the league if the first couple of matches of his reign are anything to go by. Openda has started both of the last two Serie A matches, but didn't feature at all in the Champions League in midweek.

This should mean that he'll be back in from the start here, and if he is, then he should be backed for shots. Openda has been a shot volume man ever since his days at Vitesse. This continued through his major breakthrough at Lens and then Leipzig.

His lowest average shots per 90 in a season since breaking through has been 2.83 in 24/25. This season, he has played a bit part role so far, but he has hit four shots in each of his last two starts in the last couple of weeks, an average of 3.74 per 90 so far.

Juventus are quite a high-shot volume team at the moment, and Openda should get his fair share of opportunities as a forward in this team.

Cesare Casadei to Commit 2+ Fouls

The former Chelsea midfield man has contributed a lot of shots from his #8 role in central midfield for Torino, but he has also been a terrifically consistent fouler in the battle of the midfield as well.

This is probably the shortest 2+ fouls bet that I have ever put up, but I believe it to be justified given the data and the circumstances. Casadei is the most used central midfielder in the Torino squad; he starts the vast majority of matches, and plays almost all available minutes as well.

In this season, Casadei averages 2.32 fouls per 90, so he averages over the chosen line here. The key as to why Casadei has been chosen here, though, is because of the consistent way that he has beaten this line.

He has played the full 90 minutes in the last five matches, and his fouls committed data reads 2 (most recent), 3, 4, 2, and 5. In a Turin derby, on Saturday evening, against players such as Teun Koopmeiners, Manuel Locatelli, and Khephren Thuram, Casadei is going to need all his energy and combative spirit to give Torino a chance.

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📈 Atalanta v Sassuolo Form & Tactics

Juventus have come back from an eight-match winless run under Igor Tudor to win two and draw one of their last three matches. Changes happen often in Italian football in general, but Juventus have often had long spells under managers such as Max Allegri, Antonio Conte, and the Godfather, Marcelo Lippi. Some have criticized Juventus for their more recent policy of hiring and firing but they will be hoping that Luciano Spalletti can provide some sort of stability for however long that lasts.

This season’s Scudetto is by no means out of reach for the Old Lady. They sit in sixth, but only four points off Inter at the top. Serie A is congested as it often is near the top, but Juventus’ underlying numbers are good. They are fourth for expected goals, third for shots on target, fourth for big chances created, and second for touches in the opponents’ box. They are also third in the league for expected goals against.

Torino looked to be in big trouble a few weeks ago, but they have now gone five games unbeaten, gathering nine points in that period, which has moved them into the relative security of 13th place. A big 1-0 win over Napoli seems to have been the springboard for their improved run, and they will be hoping to channel that same energy into this difficult match as well.

The process at Torino seems fairly solid; they rank inside the top ten of Serie A in most attacking metrics, including expected goals. The less impressive side of Torino's performances have been defensively; they have conceded 16 goals, and from 14.7 xG against, which is 17th best in Serie A.


📔Juventus v Torino Formation & Team News

Juventus went with a 3-4-2-1 against Sporting CP in the Champions League in midweek. This is obviously a higher calibre of opposition than what they will face here, so they may find a way to go more attacking, but it was a similar shape against Cremonese in their last league game as well. Getting the most out of dynamic midfielder Khephren Thuram could be the key to long-term success for Spalletti at Juventus.

Juventus still have a couple of injury issues to work through. Polish forward Arkadiusz Milik is still out, as is English defender Lloyd Kelly. Gleison Bremer and Juan Cabal are also still out for this one.

Torino also use a three at the back system. The makeup of the midfield varies, either a central pivot with two attacking eights, or a double pivot with a #10. I suspect that we will see a more defensive version of the system here, with the idea to spring forwards and use the two centre forwards, Giovanni Simeone and Che Adams, to build quick counterattacks.

Torino have an unchanged squad to pick from here and a fairly empty treatment room as well.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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