The short Christmas break in Italy is now over, and to welcome us back, two of the country’s top sides face off in a huge game in Serie A late on Thursday, which seems ripe for a Bet Builder. Although this game is perhaps unlikely to matter much in the title race, a defeat for Napoli could be the final blow to a title challenge that started off so promisingly but has come unstuck amidst a raft of injuries. Inter’s consistency is maybe too much to handle for the rest of the league and has seen them go seven points clear of Napoli, but both these sides will be desperate to play Champions League football next year, and with Juventus just five points behind third-placed Napoli, they will be eager to close the gap, while the Neapolitans will be hoping to continue keeping Massimiliano Allegri’s side at arms’ length.
Juventus come into this fixture having not lost since November, drawing just once in this time, although the fixture list has been kind (and their one draw was against relegation battlers Venezia). Nevertheless, picking up points breeds confidence and this, alongside Juventus and their coach’s history of winning, means that they will fancy their chances against anyone, no matter the situation they find themselves in. Napoli meanwhile have won just one in five in the league, games which have included losses to midtable Empoli and 17th-placed Spezia. Luciano Spalletti’s side have seen their form collapse in the last few months, going from unbeaten title favourites to scrapping it out to ensure Champions League qualification, and he has so far been unable to provide any answers.
Key players will be missing for both sides in this one, which adds an extra layer of intrigue into this one. Chiellini and Bonucci are both likely to be out for Juventus, although the stellar form of Matthijs de Ligt will soften the blow of losing two European Championship winning centre-backs. Also on the positive side for the side from Turin, it does look like Paolo Dybala will be back which is fantastic news for the Bianconeri, and likewise with Federico Chiesa and Weston McKennie. Napoli meanwhile look to have been decimated. Already struggling with injuries, they have now suffered a Covid outbreak in the squad, and have several absentees, while three players are now away on international duty at the African Cup of Nations, including captain Koulibaly. Victor Osimhen is still yet to return from his injury, which is a huge loss for the side, while full-back Mario Rui will miss this game after accumulating five yellow cards. Napoli will also be missing their coach, with Luciano Spalletti testing positive just yesterday, leaving them managerless going into the game.
Juventus vs Napoli Bet Builder Tips
Juventus to Win
Not much is certain in this tie, but one thing I would be extremely confident of is a victory for the home side. First of all, playing at the Allianz Stadium provides an undoubted boost to their chances. Although their record in Turin has not exactly been stellar this season, we must consider just how poor Napoli have been in recent weeks, and that their struggles with injuries and illness have been compounded by suspensions and international duty call-ups. Spalletti was unable to find solutions to his issues even before he had a further three players leave his camp to play in the African Cup of Nations, and losing his captain to the tournament, alongside his second-most used player (Mario Rui) to suspension means Juventus will be confident of coming home with a victory.
Goals are unlikely to flow for both sides in this one, but a Napoli collapse is entirely possible under the strain of their mounting crisis and Juventus may take advantage. Even if they are not able to run up the score against their depleted visitors, they will surely have more than enough to take all three points in this one. Napoli are of course capable of a surprise and still have some top players in the squad, but hardly any squad in world football would be able to cope with the number of likely starters currently unable to feature and them being able to leave for Naples with any points would be a huge disappointment for the team in black and white.
They will see this an ideal position from which to push forward and really ignite a campaign that has so far been hampered by their sluggish start. For any Bet Builder which features a full-time result selection, there really is no other option than a Juventus win.
Paulo Dybala to have 2+ Shots on Target
Juventus’ injury-prone Argentine forward has been their shining light in what has been a disappointing season so far, and has managed a shot on target in all but one game in which he has featured for Juventus in the league. This prediction is slightly dicey in that I can’t be 100% certain that Dybala will feature from the start, but if he does (and I would assume with his return to training he will), expect him to be busy against a weaker than usual Napoli side. The last two games in which Dybala has started have seen him take a plainly ridiculous 15 shots, with seven of these on target. His last game saw an 11-minute cameo in an underwhelming 1-1 draw with Spezia, but in which he still managed to claim a shot on target.
Napoli look really stretched at the back, while a steadily improving Juventus appear to be getting the majority of their squad back to full fitness and will be hoping to make a serious assault on the Champions League places, so this should be a good game for what will be essentially a full-strength Juventus forward line. I expect them to dominate the game and there to be plenty of chances for all three up front. With no manager on the sidelines, and likely to have little in the way of game-changing substitutes, should Juventus go ahead early, it seems very unlikely that Napoli will be able to turn the game around and release the near-constant pressure Juventus will attempt to exert on what is very much a makeshift backline.
Dybala is currently averaging an impressive 2.01 shots on target per 90 minutes of football played, and an absolutely huge 4.97 shots per 90 which is the most across Europe’s big 5 leagues by some distance (only Lewandowski is close with 4.66). This is a game in which we can expect his side to be clearly on top, Dybala is more likely than anyone else to be right in the thick of it.
Juventus to have 5+ Shots on Target
I’ve already laid bare the reasons why we can expect Napoli to struggle against the hosts so I won’t labour the point and go over them again, but I can explain why I think 5+ shots on target for the Turin outfit seems to be good value. Napoli’s defence will likely feature a left-flank composed of Juan Jesus (5 starts in the league) and Faouzi Ghoulam (0 starts), with a defensive midfield lineup in front of them featuring Stanislav Lobotka (6 starts) and Diego Demme (2 starts). Between them, their total minutes played in the league this year is fewer than five players have managed to accumulate on their own. An away tie against Italy’s most famous outfit is hardly the place you would hope to be relying on players with such few minutes in their legs. Ghoulam has played just 18 minutes of Serie A football all season, and now will be tasked with keeping quiet Dybala and Bernardeschi, two top talents who will no doubt be instructed to target a player who has played next to no football this season. At 30 years old, Ghoulam’s best days are certainly behind him and he may prove the weakest link amongst an already significantly understrength Napoli side.
In their last seven games, Napoli have conceded 5 or more shots on target on four occasions, including games against Empoli and Sassuolo, and these games all took place before the mini-crisis amongst the squad became an all-out crisis in the last week or so. Expect Juventus to take full advantage, with plenty of players averaging solid shots on target per 90 figures. Dybala has 2.01, Morata is at 1.25, while the wide players Chiesa and Bernardeschi are contributing with a respectable 0.72 and 0.68 apiece. With other players more than capable of causing teams problems and getting shots away, this looks a great option to add a little more value into your Bet Builder.
Diego Demme to be Shown a Card
Napoli look likely to be relying on Diego Demme to step up and make what will be just a third start of the season in this one. He has appeared in nine games this season, but for a total of just 231 minutes, or two and a half games. Despite this huge lack of game time, he has picked up a mightily impressive three bookings, which means he is currently averaging a frankly incredible 1.15 cards per 90. Demme’s ill discipline is in a league of its own in this game, and with such a prolific record, and up against a supremely talented collection of attacking players, it will be a surprise to see him finish the 90 minutes without seeing his name added to the referee’s notebook.
Demme, in his short time on the field this season has managed to rack up 3.85 fouls per 90. Now while these figures are extremely promising for the potential for cards, they are of course somewhat distorted by the lack of time spent on the pitch. Despite this however, he will find himself up against Dybala, Morata and Chiesa, who between them draw over eight fouls per 90, and the limited data we have shows that he isn’t exactly unafraid to stick a boot in. While he may try to be more professional when given the opportunity to play from the start, up against top class opposition there is a great chance that he will be just a tad too slow to the ball and ultimately pick himself up a yellow after being drawn into one too many fouls by any of the front four for Juventus.
His likely partner in defensive midfield is Stanislav Lobotka, who commits 2.03 fouls per 90. With both of these two anchoring the midfield, it seems increasingly likely that this game could become somewhat bad-tempered, and that the referee will be forced to issue cautions to remain in control. If so, Demme seems the standout candidate to be on the receiving end at some point in this one.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets, my predicted line-ups can be found below *
Juventus vs Napoli Cheat Sheet
Juventus Predicted 11 vs Napoli: Szczesny; Cuadrado, Rugani, de Ligt, Sandro; Bentancur, Locatelli; Chiesa, Dybala, Bernardeschi; Morata (4-2-3-1)
Napoli Predicted 11 vs Juventus: Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus, Ghoulam; Demme, Lobotka; Politano, Zielinski, Insigne; Mertens (4-2-3-1)
Lazio vs Empoli Cheat Sheet
Bet Builder Cheat Sheet for Juventus vs Napoli in Serie A live on BT Sport 1
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Juventus vs Napoli in Serie A
📅 When is Juventus vs Napoli? / Thursday, 6 January 2022, 19:45
🏟 Where is Juventus vs Napoli? / Allianz Stadium (Turin)
📺 What TV Channel is Juventus vs Napoli on? / BT Sport 1
📱 Online Live Streaming for Juventus vs Napoli / bet365
🟨 …And who is the referee for Juventus vs Napoli? / Simone Sozza 🇮🇹
