Chelsea and Leeds fans will both be feeling generally positive after their starts to the season although both teams will carry disappointments that their last matches ended in 2-2 draws. Judging by their performance levels in the first 2 matches, Chelsea will have serious hopes of a title challenge whereas Leeds will now believe they can finish comfortably in mid-table. Travelling to Elland Road is never easy though and Chelsea will have to turn up to get a result.
Leeds United v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals
Leeds have continued the Bielsa legacy of playing attacking football under Jesse Marsch which saw their matches last season average 3.18 goals. Chelsea matches also average 2.87 goals per game and this trend continued in their last match against Spurs this season. Both Leeds’ games this season have had over 2.5 goals and 6 of their last 7 premier league matches have had over 2.5 goals.
Last season, the matches between the teams ended 3-0 and 3-2, over 2.5 goals in each match and this is a trend I would expect to continue in this match. Both teams will be happy with their performances so far this season and although Chelsea might dominate the possession in this match, Leeds will create opportunities as well so I would expect to see over 2.5 goals again in this match.
Rodrigo to have 1+ Shots on Target
Chelsea have allowed shots on goal this season, Everton played a very defensive low block against them but still managed 4 shots on target. Leeds have managed 9 shots on target in their first two matches, Rodrigo has had 4 of these shots on target. 63% of Everton’s xG against Chelsea came down the centre of the pitch and with Rodrigo playing in the central position he has occupied so far this season he can cause Chelsea further problems in this game. Rodrigo averaged 0.67 shots on target last season but with Raphinha leaving Leeds, Rodrigo has a more prominent role in Leeds’ attacking play which is seeing him get more chances. At 2.1 this is a great value selection so therefore I am backing Rodrigo to have a shot on target.
Kalidou Koulibaly to have 1+ Shots
No team conceded more goals from set pieces last season than Leeds and this weakness could be key in this match. Alternatively, only Manchester City scored more goals from crosses than Chelsea last season. Kalidou Koulibaly has made quite an impact already for Chelsea defensively but has also had an effect from attacking set pieces. Koulibaly averaged 0.48 shots per match in Serie A last season and has had 4 shots in his 2 matches so far this season, including his goal. Leeds are weak from set pieces and had the 4th worst aerial duel win % in the league last season of 45.8%, whereas Koulibaly averaged 58.8%. Chelsea have one of the best corner takers in the league in Reece James, he was in the top 2% of players last season for expected assists per 90 but they also have Cuccurella, who assisted Koulibaly’s goal against Spurs, and Mason Mount as potential corner takers. One of Leeds’ best aerial players, Liam Cooper, is questionable whether he will start in the match and having him missing out will only make Leeds even weaker from set pieces.
Chelsea are one of the best teams from set pieces in the league and face one of the worst teams at defending set pieces. Koulibaly has been dangerous from set pieces ever since he has stepped onto the pitch for Chelsea so I am predicting him to have a shot in this match.
Under 11.5 Corners
Leeds matches last season averaged 8.21 corners per match and this season they are yet to have a match with over 11 corners with 7 and 10 corners in their matches so far. Chelsea’s match against Everton had a crazy 20 corners but that is very much an outlier considering their matches last season only averaged 8.84 corners per match. While these are high numbers for Chelsea when they played Leeds last season one of the matches had just 5 corners and the other had just 7.
Because Leeds don’t tend to play a narrow low block, they leave more space through the middle and Chelsea will be in less positions to win corners. A huge 71% of Wolves xG vs Leeds came from attacks through the centre and against Everton 68% of Chelsea’s xG came from attacks down the centre. With both teams strength down the centre of the pitch, I would expect a low number of corners, just like in both matches last season.
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How to watch Leeds United v Chelsea in the Premier League?
📅 When is Leeds United v Chelsea? / Sunday, 21st August 2022, 14:00
🏟 Where is Leeds United v Chelsea? / Elland Road (Leeds)
📺 What TV channel is Leeds United v Chelsea on? / Sky Sports Main Event