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Leeds v Newcastle 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Leeds v Newcastle 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 28 August, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Leeds welcome Newcastle to Elland Road, hoping to build on their success in their first home game of the season against Everton where they ran out 1-0 winners.

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Leeds v Newcastle Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Leeds v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
4 Selections @ 4.86

Anthony Elanga to have 2+ Shots

Elanga had two shots in Newcastle’s opening game of the season against Aston Villa and will take up an even more important role in the Toon Army frontline here with Anthony Gordon suspended following his sending off against Liverpool.

Elanga didn’t have a shot in that game at St James’ Park, but it was a difficult assignment for Newcastle having been reduced to 10 men just before half time. There were only 15 shots in that game between both sides, and the extra circumstances surrounding it made it a pretty unique scenario, so it’s not off-putting that Elanga didn’t have a shot last time out.

Elanga had 44 shots across his 31 Premier League appearances last season (1.58 per 90), but I would expect this record to improve quite substantially this season now that he’s playing for a Newcastle side which is in the opposition’s final third a lot more often than Forest were.

Leeds conceded 18 shots against Arsenal last time out, and we can expect Newcastle to end with a similar volume of shots when they travel to Elland Road to take on Daniel Farke’s side.

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Gabriel Gudmundsson to Commit 2+ Fouls

Gudmundsson really struggled against Bukayo Saka at left back in Leeds’ 5-0 defeat to Arsenal last time out. The 26-year-old contested 12 duels, losing nine of them - more than any other player - with this record resulting in three fouls and a yellow card.

He’ll be regularly challenged here again by Anthony Elanga, who has won three fouls across his two appearances for Newcastle already this season. Elanga averaged 1.69 fouls won per 90 across his 38 Premier League games last season, which is a record that suggests that he can test Gudmundsson to a similar level as he was last week against Bukayo Saka.

Gudmundsson averaged 1.51 fouls committed per 90 across his 30 appearances in Ligue 1 last season, which is another convincing record that cements his chances of committing a few fouls here in the multiple duels he will contest with Anthony Elanga.

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Leeds Goalkeeper to Make 2+ Saves

Leeds have brought in Lucas Perri as their starting keeper this season, he was forced into making just one save against Everton in Leeds’ opening game of the season, but it was a pretty pitiful attacking display from the Toffees, and we can expect a much more forceful effort in the final third from Newcastle here.

Perri was forced into making 116 saves across his 33 appearances in Ligue 1 last season (3.52 per 90). He maintained a save percentage of 72.5% across these games, which is a very decent record, though the lower quality of the French league when compared to the Premier League should be taken into consideration. Perri let in all five of Arsenal’s shots on target in their 5-0 defeat to the Gunners.

Given Newcastle’s slight lack of attacking edge without Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, it could take a few knocks on the Leeds door before it eventually opens. This scenario should see Perri tested on at least two occasions by a Newcastle side that averaged 4.60 shots on target per game last season.

Newcastle Double Chance

Leeds did really well to register a 1-0 win over Everton in their first game of the season at Elland Road, but I can see this being a more complicated assignment for the newly promoted side.

Leeds had 21 shots against Everton in that opening game, but only scored one goal, which had to come from the penalty spot. I don’t think Leeds have enough goals to be able to survive in the Premier League this season. They’ve gone with a bit of a scattergun approach when it comes to signing a striker, with Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha all coming in this summer.

I’m not sure how any of these players are going to find any momentum or consistency, especially with how often it looks like Leeds are going to rotate their forward options.

Leeds had just three shots against Arsenal last time out, which is the perfect example of the issues that the newly promoted sides will face this season, especially against sides that will be challenging towards the top of the table, as we expect Newcastle to. Newcastle avoided defeat in 12 of their 19 away games last season (63%).

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Leeds v Newcastle Best Longshot Bets
  • Leeds v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
3 Selections @ 18.22

William Osula to Score

I’m a big fan of William Osula, he’s not quite ready to be an Alexander Isak replacement just yet, but he has undeniable qualities which can make him a reliable striker at Premier League level.

Osula scored Newcastle’s equaliser against Liverpool when they were down to 10 men, getting on the end of a set piece before slotting calmly past Alisson. He’s likely to start here with Anthony Gordon suspended following his red card against Liverpool, and the Isak situation showing no signs of a conclusion any time soon.

Osula obviously didn’t get many chances in the Premier League last season with Isak often being the number one name on the team sheet, but he was given an opportunity in the FA Cup last year and impressed. He registered three goal contributions across his two appearances in the competition with five shots across those games.

His cameo against Liverpool should give Osula real confidence ahead of this clash, and with Newcastle needing a win to lift spirits before the international break, there should be plenty of chances for Newcastle’s stand-in striker to get another goal.

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Over 2.5 Leeds Cards

The newly-promoted sides often end up on the higher end of the card count at the end of the season:

Southampton 24/25 - 89 yellow cards (3rd in PL)

Leicester 24/25 - 87 yellow cards (4th in PL)

Ipswich 24/25 - 85 yellow cards (6th in PL)

This isn’t really surprising as these sides can get easily frustrated and are often on the end of some ugly scorelines, which can also lead to cards. Newcastle were one of the most fouled sides in the Premier League last season, only Aston Villa and Tottenham won more fouls than Eddie Howe’s side, which would suggest that Leeds should get through quite a bit of work off the ball here.

Leeds committed 11 fouls and received two yellow cards in their 5-0 defeat to Arsenal last time out. Newcastle’s strong fouls won record from last season should see Eddie Howe’s side draw quite a few fouls from the Leeds fans in front of their home fans in what is usually an intense atmosphere.

The referee for this game is Peter Bankes, who has handed out eight yellow cards across his two appointments in the Premier League so far this season.

Bruno Guimaraes to be Shown a Card

Bruno Guimaraes looked like he could have walked away with someone’s head when Newcastle took on Liverpool on Monday night. That game, of course, had extra circumstances surrounding it which led to a more intense game than it would otherwise have been, but with Sandro Tonali and Joelinton doubts for this game after picking up injuries against Liverpool, Guimaraes is the most likely option to pick up a card.

Guimaraes committed four fouls and was shown a yellow card in Newcastle’s 3-2 defeat against Liverpool on Monday night. He contested 20 duels, losing 13 of those and also made more tackles than any other player on the pitch (four).

Guimaraes picked up seven yellow cards in the Premier League last season whilst maintaining an average of 1.78 fouls committed per 90. These numbers may surprise you as it looks like Guimaraes gets a booking every week, but he is the most consistently carded player in the Newcastle squad when excluding the injury doubts surrounding Fabian Schar, Joelinton and Tonali ahead of the game.

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📂 Leeds v Newcastle Cheat Sheet

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📈 Leeds v Newcastle Form & Tactics

Leeds started on a high but have quickly come crashing back down to reality. Their opening weekend victory against Everton was a big moment, but it has been overshadowed by a 5-0 defeat against Arsenal and an early exit from the Carabao Cup at the hands of Sheffield Wednesday.

Daniel Farke said before the season started that he didn’t think his side was ready offensively for the challenges that the Premier League presents, the early weeks of the season have proven him right. Leeds look alright between the boxes, but lack any sort of cutting edge in the final third, which may end up being their downfall this season.

Even their win against Everton was earned from the penalty spot, despite Leeds having 21 shots in the game. They’ll need to find a way to consistently create and take chances quickly, or this could be a brutal start to the season for Daniel Farke and his side.

Newcastle showed plenty of resilience and fight in their game against Liverpool on Monday night. They ultimately didn’t get the win against the Reds, but showed plenty in their performance - especially after going down to 10 men.

The worry for Eddie Howe now is that his side are without Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak for this game, who are their main attacking threats. Newcastle are haggling over a deal for Jorgen Strand Larsen, which would plug their striker issue for now, but he is unlikely to be signed in time for this game, which means we should see Osula lead the line following his goal against Liverpool.


🏁 Ref Watch

Peter Bankes

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

21.43

3.98

0.11

0.18

Per game stats from Bankes' 95 career Premier League games.


📊 Leeds v Newcastle Key Stats

  • Leeds crashed out of the Carabao Cup in midweek, losing to Sheffield Wednesday on penalties.

  • Leeds have struggled to create high quality chances so far with just one goal scored across their two Premier League matches and this came from the penalty spot.

  • They've signed Noah Okafor, who could make his Premier League debut here.

  • Newcastle avoided defeat in 12 of their 19 away games last season.

  • Newcastle won all six of their games against the newly promoted sides last season.

  • They will be without Isak and Gordon for this game, who combined for 58% of Newcastle’s Premier League goals last season.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions this season.

These Leeds v Newcastle Betting Stats provide further insight. We’ve also got Bet Builders for Chelsea v Fulham, as well as a Mega Acca, and Quick Previews for Man United v Burnley and Tottenham v Bournemouth. Alongside our Premier League Acca.

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For additional value, check out our bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips and our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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