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Leeds v Tottenham Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Leeds v Tottenham Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 2 October, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

Leeds welcome Tottenham in Saturday’s early kick-off, with Daniel Farke’s side yet to lose at home so far this season in games against Everton, Newcastle and Bournemouth.

Tottenham came back from 2-0 down to salvage a point against Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League during the week, and have only lost one of their nine matches across all competitions this term.

For further insight, check out these Leeds v Tottenham Betting Stats.

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Leeds v Tottenham Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Leeds v Tottenham
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
3 Selections @ 2.44

Over 1.5 Goals

Leeds saw four goals in their most recent home game against Bournemouth as the sides played out a 2-2 draw, and I think we should see a few goals again in this game. 

One area I’m keeping a keen eye on for Tottenham this season is how they perform after a European gameweek. Their squad is littered with injuries right now - particularly in the final third - so I think fatigue will play a massive factor in these games.

Tottenham have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception coming against Villarreal in the Champions League a few weeks ago. If we look specifically at Tottenham’s away games this season, Thomas Frank’s side have seen 2+ goals in all four of their away games across all competitions. 

This tells us that Tottenham are slightly weaker defensively on the road, which is confirmed by the fact that they’ve conceded 2+ goals in each of their last two away matches against Brighton and Bodo/Glimt. 

Tottenham Goalkeeper to Make 2+ Saves

Leeds have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in two of their three home games so far this season. The exception was against Newcastle, who set up in quite a stubborn manner due to absences and injuries, there were only three shots on target from both sides combined in that game, so it is a bit of an outlier when looking at Leeds’ other home games this term.

Vicario has been a busy man in the Tottenham net and a massive part of Tottenham’s early stubbornness at the back, which Frank has instilled, moving Spurs away from the basketball-like approach of Ange Postecoglou. He’s faced 25 shots in the Premier League this season and has made 21 saves (84%).

This works out at 3.50 saves per 90; only Burnley's Martin Dubravka (24) has been forced into making more saves this season than Vicario. This tells us that while Tottenham are more organised, they are having to rely on their keeper to make key saves to keep them in games. 

There may be a question mark over the level of threat that a newly-promoted side like Leeds can carry, but Vicario was forced into making four saves against Burnley on the opening weekend of the season, which would further suggest that the Tottenham keeper will be tested at least twice here.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shots on Target

Calvert-Lewin has shown promise for Leeds in recent matches when it comes to shots on target. He’s had seven shots across his four appearances this season (2.36 per 90) with six of those efforts finding the target (2.02 per 90). This is a shot accuracy of 86% which tells us that the striker is finding the target pretty much with every shot he has.

Calvert-Lewin has always been an effective striker; his issues have been injuries in recent seasons, which has stalled his development, but this is a player who has previously hit double digits for goals in seasons prior for Everton, so he’s more than capable of being a player who can help Leeds stay up this season with his goals.

Calvert-Lewin has found the target in each of his last three starts for Leeds, including managing three shots on target at home against Bournemouth last time out. Leeds have carried an attacking threat in their home games, they had eight shots on target against the Cherries in their most recent home game and also managed three against Everton.

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Leeds v Tottenham Best Longshot Bets
  • Leeds v Tottenham
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
3 Selections @ 10.62

Joao Palhinha to Score or be Shown a Card

Joao Palhinha has been excellent for Tottenham so far this season and has contributed in a way you wouldn’t really expect. Palhinha is not renowned for his goalscoring ability, he didn’t score a single goal for Bayern Munich last season, but has already netted three times for Tottenham this season.

Two of those goals have come in the Premier League against Manchester City and Wolves, with his strike against the latter earning him his first yellow card of the season - for his celebration as he took his shirt off. Palhinha is more likely to get a card than end up on the scoresheet again, but his willingness to get into the box, paired with Tottenham’s improved set piece efficiency, should see him have a few chances.

Palhinha received 13 yellow cards across his 33 appearances in the Premier League during the 23/24 season. This could be the perfect game to see him get his first yellow card from open play, with the atmosphere Leeds are able to generate at Elland Road. He also scored four Premier League goals in that season.

Anton Stach to be Fouled 2+ Times

Stach is a player I can see staying in the Premier League even if Leeds get relegated this season. The first thing you notice about Stach is his size, he’s 6’4 and dominates the midfield with his power and poise. He’s both footed and has real technical ability, making him an invaluable asset in the Premier League which demands both traits - particularly from midfielders.

He’s won nine fouls across his six Premier League appearances so far this season (1.50 per 90) and that average could be set to rise here with Stach facing up against a combative Tottenham midfield which features Bergvall, Palhinha and Pape Sarr.

Stach has created the most chances of any Leeds player this season (13) so he is a threat that Tottenham will have to manage. I touched on the battle between Bergvall and Stach in earlier, I think that’ll be the main battle in the middle of the park, which Stach will be able to win more often than not.

Mohammed Kudus to Score or Assist

Kudus has been bright for Tottenham so far this season but I’d like to see a bit more end product from the 25-year-old who joined from West Ham over the summer.

This is the perfect game for Kudus to add to the three assists he’s registered already this season. It may be a bit harsh to say Kudus could be doing more, having set up three goals this season, but he should definitely be more of a goal threat than he currently is, with just three shots on target this season.

He registered an assist in Tottenham's most recent away game in the Premier League against Brighton, and two of his assists came against Burnley on the opening weekend of the season. 

This would suggest that Kudus can show his best output against newly promoted sides, which is to be expected. I’d still expect more from the Ghanaian in other matches, but he can come away from this game with some sort of end product. Kudus has the highest combined xG + xA of any Tottenham player this season (2.10).

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📂 Leeds v Tottenham Cheat Sheet

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📈 Leeds v Tottenham Form & Tactics

Leeds have done well so far at home, avoiding defeat against Everton, Newcastle and Brighton, with one win in this sequence. Farke will have been gutted with the equaliser they conceded in the 93rd minute against Bournemouth last time out, which denied them another three points at Elland Road, but the most important thing is that Leeds have been competitive.

Daniel Farke's men have collected eight points from their opening six matches, which is a steady tally from the first few weeks of the season. A point or more could be invaluable in this game as Leeds travel to face Burnley in the first game after the international break, if they are able to collect even four points from those two games, it would put them in a great position heading into the busy festive period.

Tottenham were fortunate to earn a point against Bodo/Glimt during the week, with Thomas Frank’s side going 2-0 down to the Norwegian side. The fight back was admirable, but the main issue that this Tottenham side faces at the moment is striking a balance between the organisation that Frank wishes to instil, and the desire of Tottenham fans to see their side play entertaining football.

Frank hasn’t quite got this balance yet, their performance against Wolves in their most recent Premier League game was disappointing and a perfect example of the issues Tottenham face. That being said, you can’t really argue with the results at the moment, as Tottenham have only lost one of their nine matches across all competitions.


📔 Leeds v Tottenham Formation & Team News

Tottenham have tried a few different systems under Frank, who frequently looks to adapt to the style of the opposition. For example, in Tottenham’s 2-0 win over Manchester City, Frank instructed Pedro Porro and Djed Spence to push really high up the pitch and encouraged frequent switches of play to the pair, which left City really vulnerable as their full backs went wandering up the pitch. 

Generally, Tottenham have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with slight iterations, making it a 4-3-3 at times. I think this shape is designed to keep the midfield secure and encourage runs from deep - Tottenham are without their two best creative players in Maddison and Kulusevski, so Frank has had to be inventive and utilise the running power of players like Sarr, who has filled the role well. 

Tottenham are battling with injuries at the moment, as well as Maddison and Kulusevski being long term absentees - Cristian Romero, Dominic Solanke and Randal Kolo Muani are all doubts ahead of this match.

Leeds have been lining up in quite an identifiable 4-3-3 this season. Their midfield has been the most impressive aspect of their approach this season, with Anton Stach and Ao Tanaka standing out in the middle of the park. Leeds tend to be quite aggressive at home, so I wouldn’t expect them to sit in a low block here, knowing that every point earned at home will be crucial to their chances of survival.

The main injury issue for Leeds is their goalkeeper, Lucas Perri, who will be out until at least after the international break, meaning Karl Darlow is set to be between the sticks for the newly-promoted side. I’d have concerns as to whether Darlow is at the level required to be in the Premier League, but Daniel Farke doesn’t have many other options, with Illan Meslier also previously struggling at this level.


📊 Leeds v Tottenham Key Stats

  • Tottenham have lost just one of their nine matches across all competitions this season.

  • Leeds have avoided defeat in their three home games this season. 

  • Tottenham have scored 2+ goals in each of their four away matches this season.

  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had six shots on target from his seven shots this season (86% shot accuracy).


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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