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Man United v Sunderland Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Man United v Sunderland Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 3 October, 20254 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

Yes, it is the classic tale of title contenders versus also-rans at Old Trafford. The question is whether the plucky underdogs of Manchester United can tame the charging Black Cats from the top end of the table.

In all seriousness, Ruben Amorim will be hoping that this is where the lack of European football for his side will mean that this is where he can start to make some inroads into the teams above them, including, of course, Sunderland.

If you want more stats ahead of this massive clash at Old Trafford, you can get them from the Man United v Sunderland Betting Stats.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a look for the week's action.


Man United v Sunderland Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Man United v Sunderland
  • Premier League
  • 15:00
4 Selections @ 4.81

Man United to Win

To many people, this may seem like a foolish selection. The prevailing narrative is that Ruben Amorim's Manchester United are pretty hopeless, and Sunderland are doing really well.

Whilst there are elements of truth to both sides, I think that there is also a view that both of these narratives are somewhat overblown.

Manchester United currently lead the league for xG created. Some of this is down to the penalties that they have won, three already since the season, but they have underperformed their data by only scoring seven from their 12.2 xG. Again, this is very much not helped by missing two of those penalties, but there is an open-play underperformance too.

United have also been suspect defensively, ranked equal second worst for xG conceded at 9.7 xG, but they have conceded more than expected as well. It should also be stated that United have faced fixtures against Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea.

Conversely to all of the above, this will be Sunderland's first fixture against a “big six” club; they are overperforming their xG (7 goals to 5.7 xG), and overperforming their defensive xG conceded (4 goals conceded to 7 xGA).

Over 5.5 Man United Corners

I think that this line is very gettable for Manchester United, given their status as the home team here.

Actually, the main reason why this seems like a good value selection is because of the tactical approach that we can expect from Sunderland.

Regis Le Bris will be smart, and I expect Sunderland to play direct counter-attacking football from a low defensive line. Given that the likes of West Ham and Wolves won at Old Trafford this way at the back end of last season, and that Burnley were close to a result earlier in the campaign, this seems like the most sensible strategy to employ.

If we look at the corner stats from those matches, we can see that Manchester United won seven corners against Burnley, and they also won eight against West Ham and nine versus Wolves.

United average 5.8 corners in their home Premier League matches over their last 50 matches, so even their average is over the line required here.

Omar Alderete to have 1+ Shots

The Sunderland centre-back is developing a reputation as a player who will pop up at the end of set pieces for Sunderland. This is obviously helped by his winning goal against Nottm Forest recently, but there is also some good evidence that he is a regular shooter for Sunderland so far.

He has started five matches for Sunderland in the Premier League, and four of those five matches have seen Alderete have at least one shot. He is actually averaging 1.11 shots per 90; he had two shots at home to Aston Villa and two away at Burnley.

Manchester United’s record of defending set pieces under Amorim is particularly poor. There is no doubt in my mind that if Sunderland get attacking free-kicks and corners, they will have plans in place to take advantage, and many of those plans will end with Alderete getting his head on the end of at least one of them.

Enzo Le Fee to Commit 1+ Fouls

Le Fee is a trusted lieutenant of Regis Le Bris, going back to their time at Lorient together, and it is clear that he will get given a good chance to perform in the Premier League. He has started four of the last five matches, and in those matches, he has committed six fouls.

He is averaging 1.42 fouls per 90 over Sunderland’s last 30 matches, so he has shown himself to be a regular fouler in this team. While Le Fee is more well-known for his on-ball work, he is a hard worker on this team and has bought into the work ethic required by his manager.

Le Fee has often been based on the left, and though he would prefer to be in the centre of the pitch from an on-ball perspective, he is really useful as a support for Reinildo Mandava or Arthur Masuaku at left-back. This is going to be especially useful against Amad Diallo if he plays on the right for Manchester United; he averages 1.5 fouls against him per 90, as does Bryan Mbeumo, who plays from the right.

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📂 Man United v Sunderland Cheat Sheet

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📈 Man United v Sunderland Form & Tactics

Manchester United are in their usual inconsistent form. Ruben Amorim is still searching for back-to-back wins as Manchester United manager, which isn’t a good situation for a man who has been in charge for as long as he has. They have gone win, loss, win, loss over the last four Premier League matches, so they will obviously be hoping that that sequence continues here.

However, there are some positive signs if people want to look for them. United’s 2025/26 season in the Premier League shows that they are averaging 2.44 xG per match and conceding 1.48 xG, a clear difference in United’s favour. They have actually won the xG battle in five of their seven fixtures, but this all means that they are failing in both boxes, which is a big issue on the pitch for Amorim.

Sunderland, on the other hand, have been clinical in both boxes. They are in many ways the polar opposite of Manchester United, overperforming their data by scoring more goals than they should have done and conceding fewer goals than they have meant to as well.

The Black Cats come into this match having avoided defeat in all bar one of their matches so far this season. They won their last fixture away at Nottm Forest with a set-piece goal, something that they have specialised in over the last couple of seasons. Who could forget Dan Ballard’s dramatic header from a corner to get Sunderland promoted?

Sunderland are yet to concede more than once in any fixture this season. Given Manchester United’s propensity to create a lot of good chances, this is likely to be tested in this fixture. Sunderland are blocking over four shots per match, and conceding more shots outside of the box than in the box, both signs of a well-organised box defence that United will have to break down.


📔 Man United v Sunderland Formation & Team News

Man United

You probably don't need me to tell you the shape of Manchester United’s team. It seems to be a media obsession around Amorim's favoured 3-4-3 shape. It can be argued, and often is, that Amorim is still searching for the right blend of players to make this system work, but we have seen plenty of teams, not least Amorim's own Sporting, make this system work very effectively.

Casemiro is available for United again after suspension, and Amad is expected to be part of the matchday squad as well following a family bereavement. It is likely to be close between Amad and Diogo Dalot as to who starts on the right of midfield.

Sunderland

Sunderland have settled on a compact 4-2-3-1 shape. The key to their success has been the partnerships that they have developed all over the pitch. Omar Alderete and Nordi Mukiele have been solid, Granit Xhaka has dovetailed perfectly with the energy of Noah Sadiki, and the wingers have supported the full-backs brilliantly.

There are no fresh injury concerns for Sunderland, and having had a full week of recovery and preparation for today, there is an expectation of an unchanged XI. Dan Ballard could potentially come in if Nordi Mukiele is feeling a rumoured injury.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as Premier League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

For Thursday's football, we also have a Premier League Accumulator, for Saturday's games, as well as Arsenal v West Ham Bet Builder Tips, Leeds v Tottenham Betting Tips, and Chelsea v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips.

Goals bettors can cheer on our Over 2.5 Goals Acca Tips and Both Teams to Score Tips. Those who are fans of player props can also back our Player Shots on Target Betting Predictions and Player Fouls Betting Tips.

We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer, the bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the BetMGM Sign Up Offer. There's a range of Free Bet Offers on site too, as well as the Best Odds Boosts.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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