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Leicester v Coventry
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 12:00
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Watch live: Sky Sports Main Event
A cracker is in store to start off an exciting Sunday programme of EFL Championship action.
Leicester City bring with them one of the most highly paid and expensively assembled squads the EFL Championship has ever seen. We have put together a 33/1 bet builder with that in mind. A shock relegation from the Premier League last season has left the Foxes in an unfamiliar situation, but they have taken a leaf out of an increasingly popular playbook to turn around their fortunes, raiding Pep Guardiola’s coaching staff.
Whilst Enzo Maresca is a new name in the Championship management game, Mark Robins certainly isn’t. However, quite a lot about Coventry’s situation is also new. For the first time, there may be a bit of pressure on Robins to find a way to at least repeat the fabulous heights of Wembley last term.
There is a hole burning in the pockets of Coventry City from the sale of Swedish talisman Viktor Gyokeres. Ellis Simms, and, recently, Haji Wright, have been the players identified and delivered by the recruitment team to fill the on-pitch role of Gyokeres, but the team has been strengthened in a number of places as a result of that deal with Sporting.
Coventry have greater predictability about them, which has helped to at least give some guidance to our 3/1 and 33/1 Leicester v Coventry Bet Builders.
We are offering readers two bet builders ranging in odds to give you the best possible chance to start your Sunday with a bang.
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ABC’s 3/1 bet builder
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ABC’s 33/1 bet builder
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Maresca to marry style and substance to lead The Foxes straight back to their Premier League den
Leicester had been more used to challenging for Champions League football and winning trophies than looking over their shoulders. Brendan Rodgers’ side were a long price for relegation from the Premier League last term, and for most of the season, many thought that their obvious quality would eventually see them clear of the drop.
Indeed, things did pick up before the World Cup. A good run saw them pull out of the drop zone, but then the defensive calamities returned, points dried up again, their manager was changed and Dean Smith was unable to galvanize Leicester City enough to escape the Championship.
The squad is being picked apart slowly, but there remains a core of players who played in the Premier League for a number of years, The three main forwards from last year remain, with all of them international quality at their peaks.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is another player who is certain to stay at the King Power and, as well as lighting up this level in previous loan spells, he has really cemented himself as a key player for Leicester and is surely primed for a big season.
The main question mark surrounding the make-up of the Leicester squad is in defence, their achilles heel from the relegation season. It will be interesting to see how Maresca handles this from a tactical perspective, three at the back would suit new signing Conor Coady perfectly, and also new loanee Callum Doyle.
Leicester team news
Maresca has tried different shapes and different players in pre-season and, similarly to Pep, can be quite flexible with his approach.
One thing we can be pretty certain of is that Mads Hermansen will start in goal. A new goalkeeper for the new challenge.
Maresca will probably go with a back three. Wout Faes, Jannik Vestergaard, and loanee Doyle are in pole position.
Ahead of them could be total chaos. There will be two holding midfielders, but one may be asked to come back into a back four at times, Harry Winks is set for his Leicester debut and he will attempt to dictate the tempo of the play.
“They’re a good team. One month ago, they played in the final for the Premier League. It’s difficult to face that type of team. When you have to attack the line of five there is less space, but we are going to find a solution.”
Enzo Maresca on facing Coventry in his first competitive game as Leicester manager
Wilfred Ndidi and Dewsbury-Hall should then have licence to affect the play in the final third, which would be a completely different role for Ndidi.
In terms of the flanks, they are set to be patrolled by Thomas Castagne on one side, and potentially, breakthrough star Wanya Marcal-Madivadua. Whoever does play there has to be fit as they will have the entire wide area to themselves in this shape.
Jamie Vardy could be given the initial nod to lead the line, as he did when Leicester were last in the Championship in 2013/14. Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka are ready to step in at any time.
New-look Coventry attempt to shake off play-off heartbreak
It is something of a well-trotted out trope of EFL football that the team that loses the play-off final tends to struggle the season afterwards.
It has been a good time recently for believers of that particular trope though. Huddersfield were in real relegation trouble the year after their play-off final defeat, Swansea also fell backwards after their defeat to Brentford in 2020, though the Bees themselves were the antidote to the trend as they achieved promotion there after losing to Fulham in the 2019 playoffs.
Expanding the trend out in a bigger sample size, just over half of the teams who lose the play-off final endure a regression to mid-table. There are numerous examples of teams that do go on to win promotion though, including Aston Villa in 2019, Middlesbrough in 2015, and Reading in 2012.
Which side of this divide will Coventry fall? Well, they are significantly affected by the big move that Viktor Gyokeres earned to Sporting after a stellar season. His fee, a reported £15 million, is mostly paying for a squad renewal that includes bringing in defenders, after relying on five defensive loanees last term.
Importantly though, they have replaced Gyokeres with two forwards in Ellis Simms and Haji Wright, it is hoped that between them they can contribute enough goals to sustain another promotion push.
Coventry team news
Mark Robins will be integrating a number of new faces into his system here. The manager will surely stick to three at the back though after the success of this system over a number of seasons.
Brad Collins in goal will likely be the first of the debutants as Ben Wilson hasn’t been fit.
Kyle McFadzean will lead the back line and has to do so from the centre as he is 36 years old now. Bobby Thomas, a new signing, is likely to play on the right of the defensive trio.
“Not ideal coming into a game like this, playing a local derby in the first game.”
Mark Robins discusses how his side’s shortened pre-season may affect this opening game of the season.
Wing-backs could include new men Jay Dasilva on the left and Milan van Ewijk on the right, leaving central midfield as Ben Sheaf and, potentially, Josh Eccles.
This partially depends on which system Robins prefers up front. The suspicion is that Gus Hamer will be deployed just behind a front two of Ellis Simms and Matty Godden, but given the difficulty of the fixture he could sacrifice a forward in place of another #10, which could be Kasey Palmer.
Leicester v Coventry Cheat Sheet
With partner in crime Gyokeres now gone, a lot of pressure falls on the shoulders of Gus Hamer to provide the attacking threat for the visitors today, and shots markets could be a great place to explore. Hamer already averages a shot on target per game and could see both his shooting figures increase greatly without the big Swede alongside him.
Joel Latibeaudiere could be an interesting option for a card. He picked up ten bookings at possession-focused Swansea last season, committing almost two fouls a game despite his side dominating the ball in most matches. If faced with Marc Albrighton and Patson Daka, both of whom also commit a fair few fouls and are able to draw fouls for their side, this could be an excellent value play.
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ABC’s 3/1 Leicester v Coventry bet builder
🎯 Wilfred Ndidi to have 1+ shots
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Odds: 1.33
As mentioned above, Enzo Maresca seems to prefer to use Wilfred Ndidi as more of a marauding midfielder. Ndidi may be found breaking into the box a lot more than he has in his Leicester career so far.
Whilst his finishing is questionable at best, there is no doubt that the Nigerian can be a very difficult man to stop and his athleticism is going to be difficult to match for Coventry.
He is also an aerial threat from set-pieces as we have seen in the past in the Premier League.
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⛔ Ricardo Pereira to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.67
Pereira will either line-up as a right back or, as has been suggested above, as a holding midfielder with added responsibility to move back to right back out of possession, a la Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Either way, full back and defensive midfield are both very likely positions for fouls. Pereira did only average 0.64 fouls per 90 last season, but the potential change of position alters his responsibilities a bit.
Playing alongside Harry Winks might also mean that Pereira will be expected to be the breaker of play more often.
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⚽ Under 2.5 goals
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Odds: 1.62
Opening matches are obviously quite difficult to judge from a performance perspective, even for the coaches on the sideline.
With the relative difficulty and importance of this fixture for both sides, the initial onus may well be on ‘not losing’ the match. Both teams will look to feel each other out and establish their game plans, especially with the new players in the ranks.
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ABC’s 33/1 Leicester v Coventry bet builder
🎯 Wilfred Ndidi to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 2.25
Jamie Vardy is well known for pulling out to the left and working the channels. It is then required for the Leicester central midfielders to fill the box when possible. With Ndidi’s height he is a much greater threat for deliveries into the middle than Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who himself is more dangerous on the edge of the box.
Whilst Ndidi has not averaged over a shot per 90 in the last four seasons for Leicester, before that he managed three consecutive seasons of well over one shot per match, indeedy his first season saw him shooting at a rate of 1.89 per match.
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⛔ Ricardo Pereira to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 3.40
Pereira has suffered through lack of availability in his last couple of Leicester seasons. When he played regularly after his move from Porto he averaged well over a foul per 90 minutes.
It is not beyond much imagination to suggest that in the heat of battle in central midfield Pereira will commit more fouls than his usual right back position. It is an unknown sample size at the moment so is worth an extension of our position on his fouls.
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⚽ Under 1.5 goals
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Odds: 4.00
Coventry showed in their play-off run that they were a side well capable of shutting others down. Poor Middlesbrough hardly had a sniff of a chance over two legs and then the final was also a very tight affair.
Mark Robins will look to contain Leicester first and foremost and with the loss of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, it may take Leicester more time to work out some answers to the puzzle that Robins sets for them.
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