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Brentford v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 17/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Brentford v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 17/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 16 January, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Brentford welcome Liverpool on Saturday night, with Keith Andrews’ side losing just one of their four games at the Gtech Community Stadium so far this term.

Liverpool’s recent misery finally came to an end with an emphatic 5-1 win over Frankfurt in the Champions League, a result and performance they’ll be looking to replicate domestically.

Check out these Brentford v Liverpool Betting Stats ahead of kick-off in London.

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Brentford v Liverpool Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Brentford v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.75

Cody Gakpo to have 3+ Shots

Gakpo extended his positive form this season with a goal and an assist in Liverpool’s 5-1 thrashing of Frankfurt in the Champions League during the week. Despite the wealth and depth of attacking talent now in the Liverpool squad, Gakpo has been their most reliable forward.

He has taken 21 shots across his eight Premier League appearances so far this season (2.93 per 90). This shot volume is really promising for our selection here, with Gakpo having 3+ shots in three of his last five matches overall.

Liverpool have had issues at the back in recent weeks, but their frontline will always be a threat with the likes of Salah, Gakpo, Wirtz, Isak and Ekitike. Brentford will be forced to sit deep here, and they may come under a barrage of shots from a Liverpool side that took 18 against Frankfurt during the week and are looking to put an end to a three game winless run in the Premier League.

Michael Kayode to Commit 1+ Fouls

Kayode has committed at least one foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and his clash against Gakpo and Kerkez stands out to me here. Kayode has all the ingredients to be an effective Premier League fullback, with natural power and speed, he can mistime his challenges, though.

Kayode has committed eight fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this term (1.02 per 90). His main opponent here is likely to be Gakpo, who has won 15 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this term (2.09 per 90) and has been Liverpool’s most influential attacker so far this season, with five goal contributions in the top flight.

Kayode will also contest a few duels against Kerkez who has shown a willingness to get forward in the early weeks of his Liverpool career, occasionally to his detriment as Liverpool get caught with too many bodies up the pitch. Kerkez has won seven fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this term (1.04 per 90), so he can also contribute to testing Kayode, too.

Over 1.5 Brentford Cards

One obvious change in Brentford’s game this season is how aggressive they look to be when without the ball. There’s been a material increase in their foul numbers this season, with the Bees averaging 12.3 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this term (4th in PL).

They rank 9th for yellow cards, with 15 picked up across their eight matches (1.8 per game), and have been shown 2+ cards in five of their eight Premier League matches this season. They’ve committed 10+ fouls in all of their Premier League matches this term, which directly shows the increase in Brentford’s tenacity when without the ball.

Liverpool are pretty strong when it comes to drawing fouls and cards from their opponents. Arne Slot’s side have drawn 2+ cards from the opposition in six of their eight Premier League matches this season, with Liverpool winning at least 10 fouls in each of these matches.

Over 1.5 Liverpool Goals

Liverpool found their attacking rhythm during the week against Frankfurt, which was an interesting lineup that didn’t feature Salah, and saw Isak and Ekitike line up together to lead the line.

They had 18 shots in the game, 14 of which managed to find the target. This resulted in an xG of 3.26 for Liverpool, which translated into five goals on the night.

This victory was crucial for Liverpool and Slot, with the Reds previously on a four game losing run. I think they’ll be able to tap into their attacking strengths here and punish a Brentford side that have shown a tendency to leak goals so far.

Liverpool scored two goals in both head-to-head meetings against Brentford last season, and desperately need a convincing win in the Premier League to end their run of defeats domestically and restore some confidence.

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Brentford v Liverpool Best Longshot Bets
  • Brentford v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 17.62

Hugo Ekitike to Score Anytime

Ekitike has been Liverpool’s best summer signing so far this season, with five goals and one assist across his 11 appearances for the club in all competitions. Three of these goals have come across five starts in the Premier League, with Slot currently trying to find the right balance between Isak and Ekitike.

Ekitike is fairing the better of the two forwards right now, but Slot deployed both in Liverpool’s 5-1 win over Frankfurt and this seemed to bring even more out of Ekitike, with the Frenchman netting against his former club. It also seemed to balance the rest of the side more with Wirtz picking up his first goal contributions for the club, and Liverpool only conceding one shot on target.

Ekitike scored on his last Premier League start for Liverpool which was against Everton, too.

Igor Thiago to be Shown a Card

Igor Thiago is one of the most aggressive forwards in the Premier League and has already collected two yellow cards across his eight Premier League appearances this season. He’s scored five goals across these games, which is an excellent return for the 24-year-old, who scored one of these against West Ham last time out.

Thiago has committed 16 fouls across his eight appearances for Brentford this season (2.20 per 90). As we can expect Brentford to sit in a low block here, there should be scenarios where Thiago is forced to chase down lost causes and commit cheap fouls as a result.

Konate and Van Dijk haven’t been at their best so far this season, but Liverpool looked a more secure defensive side against Frankfurt during the week, and will hope that their change in structure can have the same effect here.

Thiago’s most recent caution came against Chelsea at the Gtech Community Stadium last month. That game followed a similar pattern to what we can expect here, with Chelsea having most of the ball and Brentford looking to take their opportunities in moments of transition, which they managed to do against the Blues in their 2-2 draw.

Yehor Yarmoliuk to Commit 2+ Fouls

Brentford have seen an increase in the number of fouls they commit under Keith Andrews, when compared to their foul numbers under Thomas Frank.

The Bees were a lot more passive under Frank, committing under 10 fouls per game across their 38 matches. This has increased to 12.6 in the early weeks of this campaign, with Andrews wanting his side to go with a more proactive and aggressive approach off the ball.

Yarmoliuk has been at the heart of this increase, with the combative midfielder committing 13 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances so far this term (1.69 per 90). Only Igor Thiago (16) has committed more fouls for Brentford this season than Yarmoliuk.

Liverpool could have as many as four bodies in the middle of the park here, with Slot switching to a 4-4-2 against Frankfurt during the week. This should see Yarmoliuk come up against:

  • Florian Wirtz - 0.70 fouls won p/90

  • Dominik Szoboszlai - 0.75 fouls won p/90

  • Curtis Jones - 1.07 fouls won p/90

    (25/26 PL stats) 

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📂 Brentford v Liverpool Cheat Sheet

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📈 Brentford v Liverpool Form & Tactics

Brentford have been impressive under Keith Andrews so far. There’s still a long way to go in the season but it looks like they’ll have enough to stay up, having crucially earned their first away win of the season last time out against West Ham, marking another major milestone for Keith Andrews in his first season in charge.

They’ve been tough to shift at the Gtech, losing just one of their four matches, which was against Man City. Even in that defeat, they managed to restrict the former champions to an xG of 0.85 from just 10 shots, so this will be an awkward encounter for Liverpool.

Liverpool ended their run of four consecutive losses with a 5-1 victory over Frankfurt in the Champions League. Slot made some bold decisions with Salah on the bench and Ekitike partnering Isak in a front two, with the former drifting over to the left hand side at times. This move also seemed to unlock Wirtz, who registered his first goal contributions for the club with two assists.

Slot will still be concerned with the lack of clean sheets. Liverpool haven’t managed to keep any across their last five matches and have only kept two across their 12 matches in all competitions. This is not a sustainable defensive record if you want to challenge for the big trophies, so Slot will need to continue to work to find a sustainable solution.


📔 Brentford v Liverpool Formation & Team News

Brentford have been flexible between different shapes so far this season, with Keith Andrews opting for a 5-3-2 in the tougher games, but going with a 4-2-3-1 in matches where Brentford may have a bit more of the ball. He may stick with the 4-2-3-1 here seeing as it was so effective against West Ham last time out, though that was more down to a lack of confidence from the Hammers, rather than Brentford brilliance.

In terms of injuries and absences, Brentford are expected to be without Aaron Hickey for this clash who was also absent for the West Ham game, prompting Ajer to play at right back, which may be a role he takes up again should Hickey not recover from his knock.

Liverpool changed their shape in their 5-1 win over Frankfurt. It was a necessary change with Liverpool losing their last four matches across all competitions, and involved Ekitike partnering Isak in a 4-4-2. This switch definitely brought more balance to the side, with Liverpool excelling in the final third and managing to limit Frankfurt to just one shot on target.

Another intriguing storyline to follow with Liverpool at the moment are the performances of Salah. He was dropped for Liverpool’s win over Frankfurt and the Reds did look more comfortable without him in the side. However, even when Salah is off form, he has the ability to chip in with goal contributions, so he could be a key player to bring off the bench here if the game is tight.

Alisson is still absent for Liverpool so Mamardashvilli will continue between the sticks - he hasn’t managed to keep a clean sheet in any of his appearances so far. Isak is also a doubt for this game, while the same is true for Frimpong who also featured during the week.


📊 Brentford v Liverpool Key Stats

  • Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets across their 12 matches in all competitions this season.

  • Brentford have lost just one of their four games at the Gtech Community Stadium in the Premier League.

  • Liverpool scored five goals during the week against Frankfurt to bring an end to a four game losing run.

  • Liverpool beat Brentford 2-0 in both head-to-head meetings last season.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Premier League Predictions for this weekend's football, as well as EFL and European Football Betting Tips, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for the Saturday's action, with a Man United v Brighton Tips and Newcastle v Fulham Tips, as well as a Premier League Acca and Chelsea v Sunderland Betting Predictions.

If you're a fan of goals bets or player prop bets, we also have Both Teams to Score Tips, Over 2.5 Goals Tips, Player Fouls Predictions, and Player Shots Tips.

If you're looking for a new bookie, we recommend the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer, as well as both the SBK Sign Up Offer and Boylesports New Customer Offer. There's a list of Free Bet Offers on the site, as well as a collection of the Best Odds Boosts for Saturday's fixtures.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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