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Man United v Brighton Bet Builder Tips, 9/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Man United v Brighton Bet Builder Tips, 9/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 17 January, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Man United welcome Brighton on Saturday, with confidence high in the Red Devils’ camp following their 2-1 win over Liverpool at Anfield - their first victory at the stadium since 2016.

Brighton are unbeaten across their last five matches across all competitions, winning three of these games, so the Seagulls won’t be short of confidence themselves here.

Check out these Man United v Brighton Betting Stats ahead of kick-off at Old Trafford.

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Man United v Brighton Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Man United v Brighton
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
4 Selections @ 3.27

Matheus Cunha to have 1+ Shots on Target

I thought Cunha led the line brilliantly in Man United’s 2-1 win over Liverpool last time out. He didn’t quite manage to find the target, but did have two shots in the game and allowed United to get up the pitch with his effective hold up play.

Cunha is yet to register his first goal contribution for United in the Premier League, which is quite surprising as he has been one of their better players so far this season. He has taken 17 shots across his seven appearances for United in league (3.46 per 90), with seven of these shots finding the target (1.43 per 90).

Such a high shot volume always gives Cunha a chance of finding the target, especially in United’s home games where they’ll be more confident to take the game to the opposition. Man United have had 23 shots on target across their four Premier League matches at Old Trafford so far this season (5.75 per game).

Carlos Baleba to Commit 1+ Fouls

Baleba was heavily linked with Man United over the summer, but the move never quite materialised. He could still end up at Old Trafford in January or next summer, with United holding a long standing interest in the Brighton midfielder.

He hasn’t quite produced the levels we saw from him last season yet, but his foul numbers have remained consistent in the early stages of the campaign. Baleba has committed a foul in each of his last five matches, with the 21-year-old committing 2+ fouls in two of these games.

This takes Baleba’s tally for the season to 12 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances (2.54 per 90). Baleba committed two fouls in this fixture last season and was shown a yellow card. He contested 15 duels in the game, winning eight of these.

Man United have increased their fouls won numbers since Brighton ran out 3-1 winners at Old Trafford last campaign. The additions of Cunha (2.44 fouls won per 90) and Mbeumo (1.44 fouls won per 90) have seen United win more fouls, on average, than they did last campaign.

Over 2.5 Goals

Man United are certainly a better side in the final third than they were last season, with many of their underlying attacking metrics backing this up. They sit second in the xG table having generated 15.4 across their opening eight matches, which is a record only bettered by Crystal Palace (17.4).

This has translated into 11 goals for Man United, which is a pretty decent return from that xG. It seems as though their attacking progression has come at the cost of their defensive solidity, with United also conceding 12 goals across these matches. This means their games are seeing 2.8 games on average in the Premier League this season. United have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five Premier League matches.

Brighton are quite a chaotic side and often struggle to find a balance between attack and defence. They ran out 3-1 winners in this fixture last season, with 3+ goals also landing at the Amex Stadium as Brighton registered a 2-1 win. They’ve also seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Over 1.5 Brighton Cards

No Premier League side has picked up more cautions than Brighton so far this season (22 - 2.75 per game), they also sit third in the foul rankings (12.6 per game).

Man United have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in five of their eight Premier League matches so far this season. They drew 10+ fouls in each of these games, which makes for good reading considering Brighton’s high foul and card records.

Brighton committed 12 fouls and were shown three yellow cards in this fixture last season, which is a tally roughly in line with the numbers they’ve been producing so far this term.

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Man United v Brighton Best Longshot Bets
  • Man United v Brighton
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
3 Selections @ 9.53

Bruno Fernandes to Score or Assist

Bruno Fernandes produced another fantastic assist to secure Man United’s first win at Anfield since 2016 last time out. The technique with which he helped the ball back into the box after it had been cleared is really underrated, not many Premier League players could produce that moment in that context.

Despite playing a bit deeper this season, he’s registered three goal contributions across his eight Premier League appearances. Fernandes can still have an influence in the final third, even if his main instructions are to try and establish a base for Man United in deeper areas of the pitch.

Fernandes registered a remarkable 37 goal contributions across his 57 appearances in all competitions for United last term. These are really impressive numbers when considering he was playing in a side that finished 15th in the Premier League, and only scored 44 goals. Fernandes’ 18 goal contributions in the Premier League last season accounted for 40% of United’s total goals in the top flight, further underlining his importance.

Yankuba Minteh to have 2+ Shots

I regularly back Minteh for shots and goal contributions, with the winger reaching another level of maturity this season, which makes him even more dangerous in the final third.

He’s registered three goal contributions across his eight Premier League appearances for Brighton this season (1 goal, 2 assists) and has had 13 shots across these appearances (1.72 per 90). This average is just below the line we require here, but i’m confident that Minteh can raise his level to meet this line, having caused Man United real problems in this fixture last season.

Minteh scored and had two shots in Brighton’s 3-1 win over United last term. He also picked up an assist in a man of the match performance, which he’ll be looking to replicate here. Minteh’s display against Newcastle last time out was also pretty promising, with the 21-year-old having two shots in Brighton’s 2-1 win.

Mats Wieffer to be Shown a Card

Wieffer lined up at right back in Brighton’s 2-1 win over Newcastle last time out and is expected to continue in that role here. He’s usually a central midfielder and regularly comes into this role when Brighton have the ball.

However, when Brighton are without the ball, Wieffer can be vulnerable as his positioning can be a bit off, which is to be expected as he isn’t a natural fullback. Wieffer has picked up three yellow cards already this season across just four starts and 375 minutes of football in the Premier League.

He’ll have to contend with two opponents here with Man United playing in a 3-4-3. These opponents are likely to be Dorgu, who has won 18 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this term (2.25 per 90), and Mason Mount.

Wieffer collected six yellow cards across just 10 starts in the Premier League last season. His reckless streak can continue here up against the duo of Mount and Dorgu, who can test the out of position fullback.

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📂 Man United v Brighton Cheat Sheet

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📈 Man United v Brighton Form & Tactics

Brighton have an excellent recent record against Man United. The Seagulls won both clashes between the sides last season, running out 3-1 winners at Old Trafford and 2-1 at the Amex. Brighton are also unbeaten across their last three trips to Old Trafford, winning all three of these matches by an aggregate scoreline of 8-3. Notably, BTTS and over 2.5 goals landed in all three of these meetings, so we can expect an exciting encounter here.

United have won three of their four matches at Old Trafford so far this term, with the exception coming on the opening day of the campaign against Arsenal. They have played Burnley and Sunderland in this sequence, so there are more challenging tests to come for Ruben Amorim, but getting their home form sorted was a main priority coming into this season - they’re only four home wins away from matching their tally from last season.

Brighton have lost two of their four away matches so far this season, so Fabian Hurzeler will be looking for some consistency from his side on their travels. Brighton’s away matches were manic last season, they avoided defeat in 13 of their 19 matches, but these games produced 69 goals (36 scored, 33 conceded - 3.63 per game).


📔 Man United v Brighton Formation & Team News

Man United line up in a 3-4-3 which is quite identifiable now and looks to be clicking more than it was last season. The main reason for this is the improvements that United have made in the attacking area of the side, with Cunha, Mbeumo and Sesko all having an impact. This is such a stark improvement from their attacking options last season, that this development was almost inevitable given their summer signings.

United should be a bit cautious not to abandon their defensive structure in the pursuit of this newfound attacking ability. They’ve conceded 12 goals so far this season, which is the most of any side in the top half of the Premier League and not sustainable if they want to challenge for Europe this term.

The only player on United’s injury list at the moment is Lisandro Martinez, who is nearing a return from his cruciate ligament injury.

Brighton have been setting up in a 4-2-3-1, but it rarely stays as identifiable as this with Fabian Hurzeler constantly tinkering with his side. One of his most common ploys is to invert Wieffer from right back, giving his side an extra man in the middle of the park.

This could be pivotal here with United often finding themselves light in the midfield. Wieffer’s presence could cause real problems for Fernandes and Casemiro, who aren’t the most mobile compared to the Brighton midfielders.

Brighton have a much longer injury list than United, with the likes of Mitoma, Gruda, Hinselwood and March all expected to miss this clash.


📊 Man United v Brighton Key Stats

  • Man United have won three of their four matches at Old Trafford this season.

  • Brighton are unbeaten across their last five matches in all competitions.

  • Brighton have won on their last three trips to Old Trafford by an aggregate scoreline of 8-3.

  • Man United sit second in the xG table, with their tally of 15.4 returning 11 goals.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as Premier League Predictions for this week's football, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for the weekend's action, with a Premier League Acca, Brentford v Liverpool Tips, Newcastle v Fulham Tips, as well as Chelsea v Sunderland Betting Predictions.

If you're a fan of player prop bets, we also have Player Fouls Predictions, and Player Shots Tips, plus Both Teams to Score Tips and Over 2.5 Goals Tips for goals punters.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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