Liverpool have not been scoring with the same frequency this season with just 29 goals in 21 league matches, and without a 9-0 demolition of Bournemouth it would be 16 in 11 at Anfield. Defensively, they have looked more solid in their victories over Newcastle and Everton and Virgil van Dijk’s presence will help that even more. Their last seven in all competitions have seen this selection land, with just 14 goals in that time at an average of two per game.

Real Madrid have not been too impressive domestically this season and whilst they are in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey they are pretty much out of the title race. In the league they have seen this selection land in eight of their last nine and in their last six, at least one side has managed to keep a clean sheet. In their last five, the only game with more than two goals was their 4-0 victory at home to Elche. This selection has landed in the Spanish sides’ last two visits to Anfield, most recently a goalless draw in the quarterfinals in 2021. Last year’s Champions League final between the two sides finished 1-0.

There has been a common theme of a lack of goals in first legs so far this year in all three UEFA Competitions. In the Champions League, both teams to score didn’t land in any of the four ties so far and there were just five goals across the four games – with Benfica’s victory being the only game not to finish 1-0. This selection landed in six of the eight Europa League fixtures and four of those saw fewer than three goals. The Conference League was even more staggering. Across the eight games, there was exactly one goal in six matches, a 0-0 between Bodo Glimt and Lech Poznan and Fiorentina’s 4-0 destruction of ten-man Braga was the only game to see more than one goal.

Along with Thibaut Courtois in goal, Vinicius Junior was the hero for Real Madrid when these two sides faced off last year, scoring the only goal in the 59th minute. In his two previous matches against Liverpool the season before, he had six shots with four on target, scoring two goals. In the league this season, he has scored seven goals from 51 shots in 21 appearances, and he is averaging 1.27 shots on target per 90 minutes. In his last 16 matches for club and country he has had 20 shots on target, having at least one in 14 of those games. In his five starts in the group stage of this competition, the Brazilian forward had 12 shots on target, having at least one in all of them and at least two in four of the five and scoring four goals.

Darwin Nunez has come under plenty of scrutiny from the media and Liverpool fans this season after his big money move from Benfica last summer. He averages 1.21 fouls per game and has committed the third most fouls of any Liverpool player in the league, despite playing less than 13 full 90 minutes. He has started 13 Premier League matches this season, committing 14 in that time and this selection has landed in 11 of the 13. In a smaller sample size since the World Cup, he has started six Premier League matches and has committed at least one foul in five of those games.

In the six Champions League group stage games, he committed seven fouls and at least one in every appearance, despite playing just 280 minutes – a rate of 2.25 per 90 minutes. The Uruguayan forward is a doubt here after coming off with a shoulder injury against Newcastle and Jurgen Klopp has said “there’s a chance” he will play on Tuesday evening. It may be worth waiting until the teams are announced before placing a bet but given that he did not start both games against Napoli and at home to Ajax and committed a foul in each of those games there is a good possibility this selection could land anyway.

Liverpool home games this season have seen four or more cards in 36% of games and Liverpool themselves have drawn at least two in 36% of matches and been shown two or more cards in 27%. However, Real Madrid’s numbers are much more impressive. Away from home, there is an average of 4.50 cards per match and there have been four or more cards in two thirds of their matches, including in five of their last six away from home – at an average of 6.17 cards per match. Across their last six, they have been shown two or more cards on four occasions and they have drawn at least three in all six.

The referee for this clash is Istvan Kovacs, a Romanian referee. Domestically, he has shown an average of 5.16 cards per match, showing at least four in 67% of matches and five or more in 58%. He officiated three Champions League group games, showing 15 cards in that time including seven in Club Brugge’s 2-0 victory over Atletico Madrid. More recently, he was in charge of Flamengo’s 3-2 defeat to Al Hilal in the Club World Cup and he showed seven bookings as well as a red card in that match. Across the four Champions League matches last week, 21 cards were shown and Benfica were the only side not to see at least two cards, with Dortmund managing six and Chelsea four.